Best Thursday Night Football Props for Week 13 Saints vs Cowboys

• The Saints meet the Cowboys on TNF in Week 13 (Nov. 29). 
• Dallas edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence thinks he’ll get the best of New Orleans’ offensive line.
• What are the best prop bets for this battle of NFC division leaders?

In Week 13, Thursday Night Football features two of the hottest teams in the league as the NFL-leading New Orleans Saints (10-1, 5-0 away) visit the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys (6-5, 4-1 home) at AT&T Stadium (8:20 PM ET). The Saints are riding the NFL’s longest win streak at 10 games, while Dallas has taken over the NFC East lead thanks to their own modest three-game streak.

Last week’s Thanksgiving props went 2/3, putting me back on the positive side for the season at a whopping $2.75.  Oy. Let’s create a little breathing room in Week 13.

The only prop I missed on in Week 12 was betting that the Saints wouldn’t score in every quarter. I’m not fading Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense anymore.

Prop #1: Cowboys Under 1.5 Sacks

The Dallas pass rush versus the New Orleans offensive line is a battle of strength on strength.

Drew Brees has only been sacked more than once in two games this season. He has been sacked just 11 times all year and a grand total of once in his last five games. A handful of those games came against teams with good pass rushes, too (Vikings, Rams, and Eagles).

The Cowboys pass rush is 12th in the league with 31 sacks. They have only been held under two sacks in two games, themselves (at Washington, at Houston). Their 31 sacks in 11 games is an average of 2.8 per game. When you add in New Orleans’ average of one sack surrendered per game, the average between the teams is 1.9 sacks/game. So it makes sense that you’re getting plus money on the UNDER.

Cowboys DE Demarcus Lawrence had this to say ahead of their meeting with the 10-1 Saints this Thursday. pic.twitter.com/DEBqvYwsBu

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 28, 2018

But Lawrence put Brees and the o-line on high alert with this comments earlier this week. Brees will get the ball out quickly and there will be plenty of handoffs to Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

Prop #2: Saints to Score Longest FG

The narrative around Sean Payton is that he’s been hyper aggressive on fourth down this year, which would lead to the conclusion that kicker Will Lutz won’t get many field-goal attempts. It’s true that the Saints have converted the most fourth downs in the league (11). But that’s because they are converting at an absurd 91.7% rate. They are only tied for 10th (with eight other teams) when it comes to fourth-down attempts (12).

New Orleans settles for its fair share of field goals, sitting 9th in field-goal attempts (23), and kicker Will Lutz (22/23 FG) has been deadly accurate, especially on the road, where he’s 14/14.

Dallas is fourth in field-goal attempts and kicker Brett Maher (22/26) is 4/5 from 50-plus. But there’s good reason to fade Maher in this spot. The Saints have surrendered the fewest field goals in the league (11) and the third-fewest attempts (15). Dallas has given up 18 field goals on 20 attempts.

Prop #3: No DST Touchdown

Drew Brees does not turn the ball over (2 INTs) and New Orleans doesn’t fumble much either (7). They are tied for first in giveaways at a scant nine on the year.

Both teams are mid-pack in takeaways; New Orleans has 17 (T11th) and one defensive TD. Dallas has 13 (T19th) and a single defensive score, as well.

Neither team has scored nor surrendered a TD on special teams. They are 29th and 27th in yards per punt return. By those numbers, there is less than a 30% chance of a DST score, which is all you need to make the NO good value.

This might not be the funnest wager to make, but counting your money at the end of the night will be plenty enjoyable.