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Upset Picks for Week 6 in the NFL – Bengals Buck Colts, 49ers Figure It Out

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Oct 17, 2020 · 5:28 PM PDT

Jimmy Garoppolo arms out reaction
Can Jimmy G and the San Francisco 49ers rebound from two straight losses against the Los Angeles Rams? Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire
  • Can Joe Burrow withstand the heat from the Colts impressive pass rush?
  • Can the 49ers get on the right track against a red-hot division rival?
  • Last week’s picks went 1-1, winning another unit to bring our yearly total to +5.85

Week 5 was another winning one for upset picks, but it feels a little underwhelming after failing to capitalize on the Raiders gigantic moneyline win over the Chiefs. It’s like when your friend tells you that they saw a Hemsworth, only for you to realize they’re talking about Luke.

There won’t be any 12.5-point underdogs to back in the NFL’s Week 6 odds, but there’s a couple of enticing upset picks we’ve circled for the upcoming slate.

Week 6 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units
Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts IND – 8 +320 Cincy 1
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers LAR – 3 +148 San Fran 2

Odds taken Oct. 16th from DraftKings and FanDuel

Colts Get Mauled by Bengals

Indianapolis is huge favorites to bounce back from their loss to another Ohio team, as the Colts vs Bengals odds have the home team favored by as many as eight.

The Bengals fell out of favor with bettors last week after Joey Covers couldn’t move the ball against a ferocious Ravens D. Cincinnati’s rookie QB was sacked seven times, fumbling twice, in the 27-3 loss.

The Colts also boast a fearsome pass rush, but they generate their pressure with just their front four. With Indy having one of the lowest blitz rates in the league, Burrow will have an easier time at the line of scrimmage, but he’ll still take a ton of hits in this game.

If Burrow can avoid turnovers in this game, then the Bengals will be right in it, because the Colts offense isn’t scaring anyone at the moment.

Indianapolis ranks 25th in offensive DVOA and many of the troubles stem from the quarterback position, where Philip Rivers hasn’t been a noticeable improvement over last year’s starter, Jacoby Brissett. The 38-year-old is making careless throws, that lead to backbreaking turnovers, that cost the Colts wins.

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The Colts also dealt with a false positive COVID test this week that threw a wrench in their preparation. If the Bengals can get an early lead and put more pressure on Rivers to perform, they’ll be in a great position to pull off this sizeable upset.

49ers Bounce Back Against Rams

The San Francisco 49ers are in a must-win situation Sunday Night at home to the Los Angeles Rams, and yet the reigning NFC Champions are underdogs. The Rams vs 49ers odds have LA giving a field goal. How did San Fran fall so far?

The easy explanation would be the massive injuries. With names like Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Solomon Thomas and Dee Ford missing, the Niners have had a difficult time slowing down opposing passers.

However, quarterback play has to be what’s worrying fans in San Francisco most. Whether it’s Nick Mullens or Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers’ passing game is leading to too many turnovers and not enough explosive plays.

Jimmy G had an ankle injury to blame for his poor outing against Miami and is supposedly feeling much better heading into this weekend. Coupled with the creative play calling of Kyle Shanahan, Garoppolo should be able to have a bounce-back game if he can execute the offense.

The Rams are 24th in DVOA in stopping the run, so Shanahan should have success moving the ball here.

Also, let’s not forget that LA’s four wins have all come against the NFC East, the laughing stock of the entire NFL. They’re probably a little overrated at this point and on the road, against a well-coached team desperate for a win, I could see Jared Goff and company slipping up here.

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