NFL Week 1 ATS Picks – Let Russ Cook
- Seattle was 3-1-1 against the spread in 1 pm road games in 2019
- Washington ranked third in pressure rate last season and has a huge advantage versus Philadelphia’s injury riddled offensive line
- Read below for analysis on the Week 1 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks
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Thanks to COVID-19, there’s never been so much uncertainty surrounding a season and it remains to be seen how teams will adjust to a lack of preseason reps, and little to no fans in the stadiums among other things.
Speaking of uncertainty, there’s a lot of buzz out of Seattle that the Seahawks are going to finally unleash Russell Wilson. The 2019 All-Pro is one of the game’s most exciting QB’s and if Seattle actually follows through on this, the Seahawks are going to be a value bet most weeks in the NFL odds.
Seahawks Soar Past Falcons
There’s a common misconception that betting against West Coast teams travelling East for 1 pm games is free money. That may have been the case in previous decades, but since 2013, West Coast teams in that scenario have a positive record ATS. Last season, Seattle was 3-1-1 travelling East for 1 pm games, and they find themselves in that situation again in Week 1, as 1.5-point favorites versus Atlanta in the Seahawks vs Falcons odds.
Seahawks vs Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread at FanDuel | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | -1.5 (-108) | -136 | Over 49.5 (+100) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +1.5 (-112) | +116 | Under 49.5 (-120) |
All odds taken Sept. 10th.
The Seahawks hung 27 points on the Falcons in this exact matchup last season, with Russ only throwing five passes in the second half. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf torched Atlanta’s 24th ranked coverage unit that day, combining for 9 catches, 113 yards and two scores.
Déjà vu?
Make that 2️⃣ TDs on the day for @dkm14!
Q2: SEA 24, ATL 0 pic.twitter.com/9lEWzZjvJG
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 27, 2019
Atlanta didn’t significantly improve a defense that surrendered the 10th most points last season and should struggle again to contain Seattle’s outside threats.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks anemic pass rush will arguably be worse in 2020 without Jadeveon Clowney, and Matt Ryan should have all day to survey the field. Ryan led the NFL in pass attempts per game in 2019, and has two elite playmakers of his own. Julio Jones racked up 10 catches for 152 yards versus Seattle last season and both he and Calvin Ridley appear set up for success.
Julio Jones made NFL history in 2019!
• 2nd in NFL with 1,394 rec. yards last season.
• Became 3rd WR with 1,250+ rec. yards in 6 consecutive seasons in NFL history.
• Became the fastest player (125 games) to reach 12,000 career rec. yards.#RiseUpATL pic.twitter.com/IdNhlFvujb— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) September 10, 2020
This game profiles as a high scoring, back and forth affair which should suit Wilson and the Seahawks just fine. Seattle was 11-3 in one score games in 2019.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-108), 1 unit
Washington Wreaks Havoc Against Philadelphia
Philadelphia limps into Washington carrying one of the longest injury lists in football. Philly is banged up at nearly every offensive position, but that didn’t stop oddsmakers from making them a heavy favorite in the Eagles vs Washington odds.
Eagles vs Washington Football Team Odds
| Team | Spread at FanDuel | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | -5.5 (-115) | -255 | Over 42.5 (-110) |
| Washington Football Team | +5.5 (-105) | +210 | Under 42.5 (-110) |
Philadelphia is especially vulnerable on the offensive line, as its starting left tackle and right guard have been lost for the year, and right tackle Lane Johnson is nursing a lower body injury. That’s bad news facing a Washington team that ranked third last season in pressure rate and will be adding Chase Young to the mix.
Chase Young is the favorite 👽
But don't sleep on the versatile Isaiah Simmons 😤
Who do you think the 2020 DROY will be? ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/1KtTKi8ke5
— PFF (@PFF) September 10, 2020
Young projects to be one of the league’s premier pass rushers for the next decade and his presence alongside Montez Sweat and Ryan Kerrigan should create enough havoc to cover up for the team’s secondary deficiencies.
Washington did little to improve an offense that ranked last in points scored in 2019, but Dwayne Haskins did show signs of improvement down the stretch.
All I know is put it up and keep on workin’ 😤 #Thankful https://t.co/DoqbBrKEom
— Dwayne Haskins, Jr (@dh_simba7) September 9, 2020
Haskins finished the final three games of last season with a 5-1 TD-to-INT rate and Terry McLaurin roasted the Eagles for 10 catches, 255 yards and two scores in two matchups.
Pick: Redskins +5.5 (-105), 1 unit
Packers Over Vikings
Green Bay clashes with Minnesota as 2.5-point road ‘dogs in the Packers vs Vikings odds. Green Bay was one of the better teams ATS last season, going 10-6, including a perfect two-for-two against Minnesota.
Packers vs Vikings Odds
| Team | Spread at FanDuel | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | +2.5 (-110) | +124 | Over 44.5 (-115) |
| Minnesota Vikings | -2.5 (-110) | -146 | Under 44.5 (-115) |
The Packers offensive outlook is boosted by the injury to stud rusher Danielle Hunter, as well as several Vikings defensive staples that departed in the offseason.
A look at Green Bay's team captains & a couple of playmakers on the #Packers & Vikings in this edition of Packers Daily ⤵️ https://t.co/tfhCk3qu9j
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 10, 2020
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have connected for a touchdown in four straight matchups versus Minnesota, while Aaron Jones has rushed for over 400 yards and four TD in the last three games of this rivalry.
The Vikings don’t have an adequate replacement for Stefon Diggs, who’s torched Green Bay in the past, and will have a hard time handling the Packers fierce pass rush. Green Bay was all over Kirk Cousins in both meetings last season, forcing three interceptions, six sacks and a minuscule 48% completion rate.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +2.5 (-110), 1 unit
Week 1 Quick Hitters
- Bears (+2.5) vs Lions – Chicago’s defense feasts on a Detroit team missing its right tackle and likely Kenny Golladay as well
- Ravens (-7.5) vs Browns – Lamar Jackson and Baltimore run all over a Cleveland squad not built to play from behind
- Colts (-7.5) vs Jaguars – Philip Rivers gets a big win in his Indy debut over a Jacksonville team that appears to be tanking
- Panthers (+3) vs Raiders – Teddy Bridgewater and CMC help the Matt Rhule era get off to a respectable start
- Patriots (-6.5) vs Dolphins – Cam Newton proves that once again New England is playing chess while the rest of the AFC East are playing checkers
- Jets (+6.5) vs Bills – New York keeps it close against a Buffalo team that is starting to feel a bit overrated
- Chargers (-3) vs Bengals – Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and the LA D overwhelms Joe Burrow in his NFL debut
- 49ers (-6.5) vs Cardinals – The defending NFC champs get off to a fast start against their division rival
- Saints (-3.5) vs Buccaneers – Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay debut is spoiled the by the underrated New Orleans D
- Rams (+3) vs Cowboys – LA outlasts Dallas in what should be one of the most entertaining games of the slate
- Steelers (-5.5) vs Giants – Blitzburgh wreaks havoc on Daniel Jones all night long, racking up sacks and forcing turnovers
- Broncos (+2.5) vs Titans – The loss of Von Miller hurts, but Denver shuts down Derrick Henry and Tennessee in the thin rocky mountain air
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
