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NFL Week 1 Player Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, September 10

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Sep 9, 2023 · 12:01 PM PDT

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes to tight end Juwan Johnson (83)
Aug 13, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes to tight end Juwan Johnson (83) against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
  • Online sportsbooks have released Week 1 player props for the first week of the NFL regular season
  • Will Derek Carr start strong against the Titans in his Saints debut?
  • See all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines, as well as touchdown odds, plus our best player prop picks below

The dawn of the new NFL season and the first full weekend of football is here bringing optimism for every team and player ahead of the new season. The stars will shine and new stars will emerge each week but which ones will shine brightest in Week 1? Well, we’ve scoured the odds from the top online sportsbooks and come up with our favorite NFL player props for Week 1.

Read on for our top Week 1 NFL player props below from all of the key positions.

Week 1 NFL Player Props

Prop Odds Risk
Derek Carr Over 243.5 Passing Yards -115 1 unit
JK Dobbins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards -115 1 unit
Logan Thomas Over 2.5 Receptions +120 1 unit
Juwan Johnson Over 28.5 Receiving Yards -115 1 unit
Tyler Lockett Anytime Touchdown Scorer +150 1 unit

My Week 1 NFL player props will feature some passing and receiving props from the Titans vs Saints game, a big day for JK Dobbins on the ground, Logan Thomas in the air and Tyler Lockett cashing +150 odds to find the endzone. Odds from DraftKings.

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When it comes to how to bet on NFL player props, there are endless options and you can bet on almost any position group of players. Below, we’ve targeted Week 1 props from the quarterback, running back and receiving positions.

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Week 1 Passing Prop – Derek Carr Passing Yards

Derek Carr’s passing prop totals this week are set at 1.5 touchdowns, 243.5 passing yards and 19,5 completions.

In Carr’s 15 games last season with the Raiders, he went over 243.5 yards eight times. Two other games he finished with 241 yards. In ten games he finished with multiple touchdowns.

We also have some stats to compare when he played against the Titans last September. While the Raiders lost the game, Carr was 26/44 for 303 yards to go with two touchdowns and one interception.

The Titans’ pass defense was awful last year giving up the most yards per game through the air at 274.8.

Carr has plenty of weapons to work with in New Orleans with Jamaal Williams, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson who we’ve targeted in our NFL Week 1 props as well later on.

  • NFL Player Prop Picks: Carr over 243.5 passing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Week 1 Rushing Prop – JK Dobbins Rushing Yards

The Texans were gashed on the ground last season ranking 32nd in opponents rushing yards per game (170.2), while ranking 29th in opponents yards per play rushing (5.1).

That lines up well for Ravens’ rusher JK Dobbins who rushed for 59 yards or more in each of his last five games last season. In two of those games he eclipsed the century mark.

His rushing total prop in Week 1 is set at 59.5 at DraftKings.

The Ravens are working in a new offensive scheme and word is Lamar Jackson isn’t completely comfortable throwing deep more often yet. If the offense gets bogged down, they may turn to Dobbins for some simple rushing plays. Also, WR Odell Beckham Jr and TE Mark Andrews are currently on the injury report. If they can’t go or are limited, that only means more touches for Dobbins.

  • NFL Player Prop Picks: JK Dobbins over 59.5 rushing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Week 1 Receiving Prop – Logan Thomas Receptions

The Cardinals weren’t good last year and even less is expected this year. One of the Cards’ many faults was their defense against opposing tight ends.

Last year Arizona gave up the most receptions to tight ends (101), the third-most receiving yards (1,084) and the most touchdowns (12).

So naturally you should be lining up to bet on every tight end in NFL player props that is going up against the Cardinals until this changes. In Week 1, that tight end is Logan Thomas of the Washington Commanders.

Thomas’ Week 1 props are lined at 2.5 receptions and 20.5 receiving yards.

In 2022 he caught three or more passes in 7/13 games, and finished with 21 or more yards in 5/13. But two other games he finished with 19 and 21 yards right around that number.

Also, if you look at his final five games of the season, he would’ve gone over 2.5 receptions in 3/5 games catching six balls twice.

  • NFL Player Prop Picks: Logan Thomas over 2.5 receptions (+120); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Week 1 Receiving Prop – Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards

It’s the fourth season for Juwan Johnson in New Orleans and big things will be expected. His usage has increased each year he’s been in the league catching four passes in 2020, 13 in 2021 and 42 last year in 2022. He also had 508 yards and seven touchdowns last season.

He did that with Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill throwing passes for the Saints last season. Now it will be Derek Carr. And while Carr never took the Raiders to the next level, he’s still a solid quarterback who ranked 14th in passing yards and 12th in touchdowns last season.

He also had plenty of success throwing to the tight end position with the Raiders with Darren Waller and Foster Moreau combining for 61 catches, 808 yards and 16 touchdowns.

Johnson has the opportunity to fill that safety valve position for Carr, who’s starting his first game with a new team in Week 1. Johnson also went over this total of 27.5 receiving yards ten times last season.

Furthermore, the Titans allowed the most yards (1,126) and the fourth-most receptions (97) to opposing tight ends last season.

  • NFL Player Prop Picks: Juwan Johnson over 28.5 receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Week 1 Touchdown Props – Tyler Lockett Anytime TD

Let’s break down our top touchdown prop bets for Week 1 here.

We’ll go to Seattle for this one. Deciding who to target for a touchdown prop between Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf is a tough one. Both are top options for Geno Smith and either could find the endzone on any given week.

In fact, perhaps both will on Sunday. Lockett led the team in receiving touchdowns with nine last season and was second in yards with 1,033. Metcalf had more yards, 1,048, but was second in TDs with six.

The Rams’ defense has tons of young, new faces outside of Aaron Donald and could be on the field a lot without Cooper Kupp helping the offense to move the chains. Plus, starting Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III popped up on the injury report this week with a groin injury. That could mean either a huge day for Zach Charbonnet, the backup, or more passes to Metcalf (+125 anytime TD odds) and Lockett (+150). Lockett has the higher odds in this week’s NFL player props so let’s target him.

  • NFL Player Prop Picks: Tyler Lockett anytime touchdown (+150); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Before you bet on your Week 1 NFL player props this weekend, be sure to head on over to the top NFL betting apps in the banner below to grab an exciting sportsbook bonus for this weekend.

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