NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• The NFL Week 14 odds are out
• Week 14 starts with a huge NFC North game between the Packers and Lions on TNF
• See my three favorite NFL Week 14 ATS picks and early lines to target, below

The last week of the season with byes, NFL Week 14 includes 13 games, starting the the Green Bay Packers (8-3) vs Detroit Lions (10-1) on Thursday Night Football and culminating with an ugly MNF tilt between the underperforming Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) and borderline-unwatchable Dallas Cowboys (5-7). Luckly, Bengals/Cowboys is included in my three favorite NFL Week 14 ATS picks, which will add to the watchability.

Early NFL Week 14 ATS Picks

I’m taking three underdogs again this week and moving the line in all three.  Odds as of Dec. 3. Claim the best sportsbook promotions for NFL Week 14. 

Week 14 ATS Pick #1: Panthers +14.5 (-155) at Eagles

Here’s something I didn’t think I’d say this season: the Carolina Panthers are not that bad. Carolina is 2-2 straight-up in its last four and 4-0 against the spread. Their two setbacks in that span were a last-second 30-27 loss to Kansas City (as 10.5-point underdogs) and a 26-23 OT loss to Tampa Bay (as 6.5-point underdogs).

Now the Panthers are catching 12.5 points at the Eagles, and you can move the line up to +14.5 at -155 odds at BetMGM.

I have nothing negative to say about the Eagles, but they don’t play in the highest-scoring games (44.8 PPG on average) and their tendency to run the ball (NFL-best 188.9 rushing yards per game) churns clock and shortens games.

Week 14 ATS Pick #2: Chargers +3.5 (-100) vs Chiefs

The Chiefs are not playing like a two-time defending Super Bowl champion. While their 11-1 record is tied with Detroit for the best record in the league, their +54 point differential isn’t even in the top ten, and its 18 points worse than the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers (+72).

Kansas City enters on a two-game win streak but those wins were by three points and two points against the Panthers (30-27) and Raiders (19-17), who are a combined 5-19. The Chiefs are an ugly 5-7 ATS and have lost six in a row against the number.

The Chargers, on the other hand, have the fourth-best ATS record in the league (8-4) and have covered five or their last six. LAC has also played reasonably well away from home, going 4-2 away so far.

Week 14 ATS Pick #3: Bengals vs Cowboys +3.5 (+130)

The Bengals are broken, at least on defense. Cincinnati’s 44-38 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday was the fourth time in five games the defense conceded 34 or more points. Only Carolina (30.5 PPG) is allowing more points per game than the Bengals (28.3).

Facing a Cooper Rush-led Dallas offense might be just the remedy, and Joe Burrow might absolutely tee-off on a bad Cowboy defense that is tied with Cincinnati for second-worse in the league (28.3 PPG). But there is just no way I can lay points with the Bengals right now given how brutally their defense is playing.

Another reason I’m fading Cincinnati is that their playoff hopes are dead. Not mathematically, but realistically. Even before last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, their playoff chances were on life support. Now it will take a miracle of epic proportions for 4-8 Cincinnati to catch 7-5 Denver and leapfrog 5-7 Miami and 6-7 Indianapolis in the process. This might be the week the majority of the disappointed Bengals roster quits on the season.