Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Packers’ Rodgers Is Bullish on Bears

• Week 2 of the NFL season began with the Kansas City Chiefs playing host to the Los Angeles Chargers on TNF in a battle of AFC West powers
• Will Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog improve in Week 2 at home to the Pats?
• Read below for an analysis of our best Week 2 NFL picks against the spread

In our Week 2 NFL picks against the spread, Aaron Rodgers looks to be a lock.

Sounds about right.

So does Jameis Winston. And the Detroit Lions are favored.

Wait, what?

Rodgers made a lot of news during the 2021 NFL season, much of it unforgettable. But his most memorable on-field moment came during a Week 6 win over the Chicago Bears. After scoring a touchdown against the Bears, Rodgers rose to his feet excitedly, donned a mythical championship belt and announced “I still own you” to all of the Chicago players within earshot.

You know something? He does own the Bears. Rodgers is 21-5 straight up in his career against Chicago. He’s also 17-9 against the spread when playing the Bears.

For the second week in a row, a QB selected first overall in the NFL Draft is facing his original NFL team. In New Orleans, Saints QB Jameis Winston goes up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team that chose him first overall in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Let’s take a look at the best bets in our Week 2 NFL picks against the spread.

Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Spread

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Our top picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Buccaneers, Packers and Patriots.

Pick 1: Chicago Is Mr Rodgers’ Neighborhood

This year Green Bay was whipped 23-7 at Minnesota in Week 1. Last year, Rodgers and the Packers opened the season with a 38-3 road loss to New Orleans. They came home to Lambeau Field and blasted the Detroit Lions 35-17.

"I still own you! I still own you!"

Aaron Rodgers was HYPED after his TD 😳 pic.twitter.com/7MLEUsQUBG

— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) October 17, 2021

In the last six trips to Green Bay, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS. The NFL public betting splits are suggesting that the Packers as 10-point favorites is too much to give the Bears. There’s 76% of ATS handle backing Chicago.

Last year, Green Bay covered as a 12-point home pick in a 45-30 win over the Bears.

Pick: Green Bay (-10)

Pick 2: Saints Will Buck Odds Against Bucs

With Baker Mayfield’s SU and ATS loss last week to the Browns, QBs selected first overall in the NFL Draft in the Super Bowl era are 10-16 SU and 8-17-1 ATS when facing their original team.

Jameis Winston has unfinished business, and it’s not just this game against the Bucs…@BootKreweMedia @RosvoglouReport @JohnJHendrix #Saints pic.twitter.com/oqgRgtS5jU

— Jack Culotta, Jr. (@TalkCulotta) September 15, 2022

Ah, but when that QB was selected first overall by Tampa Bay, the numbers skew in the opposite direction. Vinny Testaverde (1987) was 3-0 SU and ATS against the Buccaneers. Winston is 1-0 SU and ATS vs Tampa Bay.

Bettors can ride this trend and take Winston and the Saints (+2) over the Buccaneers. Or they can bet on Tom Brady.

Pick: Tampa Bay (-2)

Pick 3: For Steelers, Playing Patriots Is the Pitts

At 0-1, New England is 2-point favorite at 1-0 Pittsburgh. That might seem surprising, but it shouldn’t be. Patriots coach Bill Belichick loves playing the Steelers. He’s gone 13-4-1 ATS against Pittsburgh as New England boss. He’s also 17-2 SU in his last 19 games against AFC North opponents.

Steelers: 0-12 vs. Belichick's Patriots when allowing more than 20 points.

4-0 when allowing < 23 points

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) September 15, 2022

Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati by forcing five turnovers. But NFL DPOY TJ Watt is out with an injury. Without him, the Steelers’ defense isn’t as menacing.

Pick: New England (-2)

• ATS season record 1-2 (-1 unit)

NFL Week 2 ATS Quick Picks

• Panthers (+2) vs Giants: Betting Carolina is finer than going with Giants to open the season 2-0.
• Ravens (-3.5) vs Dolphins: Tua vs Lamar is intriguing, but it’s Baltimore’s defense that wins the day.
• Jets (+6.5) vs Browns: Who isn’t excited by the Joe Flacco vs Jacoby Brissett showdown?
• Lions (-1.5) vs Commanders: Detroit is favored for the first time in 24 games.
• Colts (-4) vs Jaguars: Jacksonville showed against Washington that there’s still some work to be done before this team can compete.
• Seahawks (+8.5) vs 49ers: If the 49ers lose again, how soon do the calls for the return of Jimmy Garoppolo begin?
• Cardinals (+5.5) vs Raiders: Arizona isn’t as bad as the club looked against the Chiefs.
• Bengals (-7) vs Cowboys: Life without Dak Prescott generally doesn’t go well for Dallas.
• Texans (+10) vs Broncos: These Texans might not win many games, but they’re a scrappy bunch.
• Titans (+10) vs Bills: It would be so Tennessee-like to beat Buffalo after losing to the Giants.
• Vikings (+2) vs Eagles: Minnesota’s defense made life miserable for Rodgers. Imagine what they’ll do to Jalen Hurts.