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Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Sep 18, 2023 · 1:43 PM PDT

The Tennessee Titans are 2-0 as a betting underdog in the NFL ATS picks
Tennessee Titans head Coach Mike Vrabel greets running back Tyjae Spears (32) as the team gets ready to face the Los Angeles Chargers at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023.
  • In the Week 3 NFL picks against the spread, eight teams are showing a 2-0 ATS slate so far this season
  • However, only the Tennessee Titans are 2-0 ATS and 2-0 as a betting underdog in both games
  • All of the Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and early lines to target are outlined in the story below

Before looking at the Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and assessing the early lines to target, it’s important to first see how we got to this point in the season.

Two weeks into the campaign, there are still eight NFL teams that are 2-0 ATS. Narrowing the search down to teams that are 2-0 ATS as betting underdogs, just four teams remain – the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans.

Factor in teams that are 2-0 ATS as a betting underdog and also 2-0 straight up, then there’s only one name you have to remember – the Titans.

Is Tennessee worth riding again in the NFL odds in the Week 3 ATS picks? Let’s check out the possibilities.

Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons DET-3.5 ATL 1
Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns CL-3.5 TEN 1
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints GB-2 GB 1

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Titans, Falcons and Packers.

Odds as of September 18 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get this BetMGM promo code to bet on the NFL. For bettors in Kentucky, head over to BetMGM Kentucky to claim your pre-registration bonus as Kentucky sports betting gets set to launch on September 28.

NFL ATS Pick 1: Lions Up Against Another ATS Dynamo

Interesting stat about the Detroit Lions under head coach Dan Campbell. Against the rest of the NFL they are 24-9 ATS. When facing the Seattle Seahawks, the Lions under Campbell are 0-2 ATS and SU.

They failed to cover last week at home against Seattle. The Seahawks carved Detroit up for 393 yards of total offense and 37 points.

Detroit’s defense tends to struggle against teams that can run the ball. Atlanta is #3 in NFL in rushing, averaging 170.5 yards per game. Another interesting stat – the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four September games. We’ll back Atlanta in our early NFL picks against the spread this week.

ATS Picks: Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 2: Titans Are Underdog Kings

Since Mike Vrabel took over as Tennessee head coach in 2018, the Titans have won outright an NFL-best 23 games when taking the field as the betting underdog. Sunday, they toppled the Los Angeles Chargers 27-24 in overtime as 2.5-point home underdogs.

Cleveland will be playing host to Tennessee on a short week. The Browns are currently the 3.5-point home chalk, though that line could be impacted by the outcome of Cleveland’s MNF game at Pittsburgh. Tennessee is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the Titans’ last eight visits to Cleveland.

ATS Picks: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 3: Pack Will Bounce Back

The youngest team in the NFL this season, the Packers threw a game away on Sunday at Atlanta that they should’ve won. But it’s also imperative to remember that Green Bay lost 25-24 on the road minus their two most explosive offensive players – RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson.

It’s expected both will be back at home this week against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are coming to Lambeau Field on a short week. Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in the past nine games when favored by less than a field goal at home.

ATS Picks: Green Bay Packers -2 (-110), 1 unit

  • ATS season record 0-5-0

Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • 49ers (-10.5) vs Giants: It seems a like a lot of points to lay until you remember what Dallas did to the Giants in Week 1
  • Dolphins (-6.5) vs Broncos: The Dolphins are for real and the Broncos are still really bad
  • Vikings (+1) vs Chargers: Two playoff teams from a year ago that are both 0-2. Also both traditional underachievers, but go with the Vikings at home
  • Patriots (-3) vs Jets: New England coach Bill Belichick is 9-2 ATS in his last 11 games vs the Jets
  • Bills (-6.5) vs Commanders: Buffalo flexed on the Raiders and reminded everyone just how good of a team the Bills can be
  • Texans (+9.5) vs Jaguars: Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in the last seven games against Houston
  • Ravens (-7.5) vs Colts: Rookie QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) an uncertain starter for Indianapolis
  • Seahawks (-4.5) vs Panthers: Facing the 12th man on a short week a tough assignment for Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young
  • Bears (+13) vs Chiefs: Kansas City is 5-9 ATS in the last 14 games as a double-digit favorite
  • Cardinals (+12.5) vs Cowboys: Arizona is 2-0 ATS, so giving the Cardinals 12.5 points might be a stretch for Dallas
  • Raiders (+1) vs Steelers: Pittsburgh is 2-9 ATS in the last 11 games vs Raiders
  • Buccaneers (+6.5) vs Eagles: Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay (2-0 SU & ATS) among the early surprises of the NFL season
  • Rams (+1.5) vs Bengals: Rams are 2-0 ATS and Bengals QB Joe Burrow (calf) might not play. Line already shortened from Cincinnati -6.5


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