Canadiens vs Bruins Prediction, Puck Line & Rivalry Picks

• I’ve made my Canadiens vs Bruins prediction for Thursday’s rivalry game at TD Garden
• One of these Atlantic Division clubs hasn’t lost in regulation over its last 10 games
• Which side of the Kalshi total am I trading? See below

The Montreal Canadiens visit the Boston Bruins on Thursday night with one point separating the two rivals. Boston sits at 13-4-1, while Montreal is 11-3-4 and hasn’t dropped a game in regulation over its last 10.

Puck drop at TD Garden is at 7 p.m. ET on TSN2, RDS and NESN. David Pastrnak leads the Boston attack, while Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson drive a Montreal group that’s been tough to put away.

Kalshi has this one priced tight, but the scoring numbers lean one way. I’m working through the moneyline, puck line and total before locking in my Canadiens vs Bruins picks.

Canadiens vs Bruins Odds

Prices below are Kalshi quotes as of 12:32 a.m. ET on Nov. 12. A contract settles at $1 if it hits, so each price doubles as an implied probability.

Compare the rest of Thursday’s NHL odds.

Canadiens vs Bruins Prediction: Moneyline and Puck Line

Boston’s goal differential does the heavy lifting. The Bruins have scored 68 goals and allowed just 41 through 18 games, which works out to 3.78 for and 2.28 against per game.

Montreal’s 62 goals for and 55 against come to 3.44 and 3.06 per game. That gap in their own end is where I give Boston the edge, especially on home ice.

Sportradar data also has the Bruins winning seven straight at home and going 9-1 in their last 10 as a favorite. Pastrnak sets the pace with 8 goals, 16 assists and 64 shots in 18 games, good for 3.56 shots per night.

A 54¢ YES contract implies about a 54% chance and returns 46¢ in profit if Boston wins. I prefer that to the puck line, where Bruins by over 1.5 goals costs 32¢ and needs a multi-goal margin against a team that hasn’t lost in regulation in 10 games.

Canadiens vs Bruins Total Pick

Bruins games have averaged 6.06 total goals this season, combining their 68 scored and 41 allowed over 18 contests. That already sits under 6.5 before the goaltending enters the picture.

Jeremy Swayman projects to start for Boston, with Jacob Fowler expected in Montreal’s crease. Neither is confirmed yet, but Fowler is 8-1-1 with a .925 save percentage and 2.15 GAA per Sportradar, while Swayman is 8-3-1 with a .914 mark.

Montreal games run a bit higher at 6.5 goals per game, so this isn’t risk-free. Buying NO at 54¢ implies about a 54% chance the game finishes with six goals or fewer, and I like that side with Boston’s defense at home.

Canadiens vs Bruins Lineup and Injury Notes

Montreal’s projected top line is Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovský. Caufield has 11 goals on 59 shots in 18 games, while Hutson has 15 assists from the blueline. Suzuki adds 7 goals and 9 assists in 12 games, and Slafkovský has 10 helpers.

Boston projects JJ Peterka and Pavel Zacha alongside Pastrnak. Both have 5 goals and 9 assists, and Elias Lindholm chips in 7 goals and 8 assists further down the lineup.

The latest injury report lists Ivan Demidov and Samuel Montembeault out for Montreal, with Mike Matheson day-to-day. Boston’s James Hagens is on injured reserve, so check confirmed lineups closer to puck drop. A late scratch on either blueline could shift the total.

That leaves my Canadiens vs Bruins picks on Boston to win and this rivalry game staying under 6.5 goals.