Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Game 3 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (Apr. 23)

• The Avalanche are -195 moneyline favorites over the Stars in Game 3 of their 1st Round playoff series
• The best-of-seven series is tied 1-1
• See the Stars vs Avalanche Game 3 predictions, odds and best bets, below

It’s early, but the most compelling 1st round series so far in the NHL playoff bracket, has been the Stars vs Avalanche. The Western Conference foes will meet in Game 3 tonight, as the series shifts to Colorado.

Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 pm ET at Ball Arena, in Denver, CO, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Stars vs Avalanche Injury News

There’s a chance both clubs get an important piece back in their lineup for a pivotal Game 3. For the Avs, captain Gabriel Landeskog could make his first appearance in a Colorado jersey in three years. The 32-year-old has missed the last three regular seasons and playoffs due to knee injuries that required multiple surgeries.

Landesgok was on the ice this morning, after being activated off IR prior to Game 2. Avs head coach Jared Bednar wouldn’t commit to Landeskog playing tonight, but said “there’s a good chance”.

Dallas meanwhile, is hoping star defensemen Miro Heiskanen can return tonight or in Game 4. He hasn’t played since suffering a knee injury in late January. Heiskanen is the Stars leader in ice-time, and has compiled 61 career playoff points in 85 postseason games. He too skated this morning, but there’s no immediate word on his availability.

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Predictions

The Game 3 winner in a best-of-seven series that’s tied 1-1, has gone on to advance 66% of the time in NHL history. That makes tonight’s contest almost a must-win, and I’m predicting it’s the road team that plays spoiler.

Dallas has outplayed Colorado through two games, but barely escaped with a series split after a thrilling 4-3 OT victory in Game 2. They’ve generated over 3 more expected goals, and hold a 34-to-17 advantage in high danger chances. The Stars have gotten virtually no production from Mikko Rantanen, Matt Duchene and Jamie Benn, three of their top-six forwards. Positive regression is coming their way, while we should expect a better performance from Jake Oettinger.

He’s posted a 3.06 GAA and .883 save percentage through two games, numbers that are far lower than his career stats. If Dallas is going to make noise as a Stanley Cup odds contender, Oettinger will need to step up.

Stars vs Avalanche Advanced Stats After 2 Games

As for the Avalanche, it’s not unfair to say they’ve been getting a little lucky. Nathan MacKinnon has scored on 30% of the shots he’s taken so far, while the fourth line has produced three of Colorado’s 8 goals.

The Avalanche have surrendered almost 9 expected goals, but the Stars have just 5 actual goals to show for their efforts. Puck possession has been relatively even, but Mackenzie Blackwood has stopped 97% of the high danger chances he’s faced, compared to only 76% for Oettinger. Water is going to find it’s level, and a few more pucks are going to wind up behind Blackwood.

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Odds

The best price we can get on Dallas to pull off the Game 3 upset is +162 at Caesars. Colorado is a -195 moneyline favorite, and +142 to cover the -1.5 puck line. The total sits at 6.5, with the juice shaded to the under.

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Per the NHL public betting trends, our upset prediction is not a popular one. 85% of the moneyline bets are on the Avalanche, as is 93% of the handle.

Stars vs Avalanche Best Bets

• Dallas Stars Moneyline (+162 at Caesars)

You’ll often hear how hard it is for players to adjust to playing at elevation. In fact, many people will cite that as a reason for backing Colorado tonight, now that they’re back in Denver.

However, consider the following. Dallas won all three games on the road in Colorado during last season’s Conference Semifinals. They outscored the Avs 11-3 in those matchups, and scored six times in two trips to Denver this past regular season.