November 7 NHL Pick: Maple Leafs Look for Third-Straight Win as Golden Knights Enter as Road ‘Dog for First Time This Season
- The Maple Leafs have won back-to-back games for the third time this season
- For Vegas, the Golden Knights are playing the second of a four-game Eastern road trip
- Vegas faces the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Thursday night as small +110 underdogs
When they face off on Thursday, the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights will feel like they’re staring into a mirror.
Both have enjoyed nearly unparalleled success the past few seasons. Toronto has one of the best collections of young talent in the league. And Vegas? They’ve enjoyed unheard-of success for an expansion franchise.
But neither has started 2019/20 in particularly inspiring fashion.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights Odds
| Team | Spread | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | +1.5 (-240) | +110 | O 6.5 (-110) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+195) | -135 | U 6.5 (-115) |
Odds taken Nov. 6
According to the Golden Knights vs Maples Leafs odds Toronto’s struggled as a home favorite. The Leafs are 4-5 on the moneyline and 3-6 against the spread. For Vegas, this will be their first road game as an underdog, as the Penguins have been their strongest competition. As a road favorite, they’re 3-4 ATS.
Neither team has presented great value this year. The Golden Knights have an -11.4% return on investment on the moneyline, and -10.87% ATS. The Leafs are even worse, sliding in at -25.53% and -15.73% respectively.
Maple Leafs Hoping to Turn a Corner
Despite sitting in a playoff spot for most of the season, the results haven’t been there for what we expected to be one of the NHL’s most dangerous teams. But could Toronto be rounding into form just as their captain returns?
Toronto Maple Leafs Last Five Games
| Date | Opponent | Result | Power Play | Penalty Kill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs LAK | 3-1 W | 0/4 | 2/3 |
| Nov 2 | @ PHI | 4-3 W | 0/2 | 4/6 |
| Oct 29 | vs WSH | 4-3 OTL | 1/8 | 5/7 |
| Oct 26 | @ MTL | 5-2 L | 0/1 | 1/2 |
| Oct 25 | vs SJS | 4-1 W | 0/5 | 1/1 |
John Tavares played on Tuesday night, and it’s a big boost to a struggling Leafs power play. Even though they went 0-for-4, the hope is he can help them out of this 1-for-20 run.
How can a power play with this much talent be so bad?
— Alex (@Alex_S____) November 6, 2019
Toronto was 3-2-2 while their captain was out, with just two of those games decided by more than two goals. They also scored 4+ goals just three times with him missing in action, accomplishing the feat five times in their first seven games.
Golden Knights Enter Toronto Amid Slump
A perennial playoff contender over their first two years in the league, the Golden Knights are in a unique position. After going 6-3 to start their season, Vegas is just 3-2-2 in their last seven, struggling with consistency over their last five.
Vegas Golden Knights Last Five Games
| Date | Opponent | Result | Power Play | Penalty Kill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | @ CBJ | 2-1 W | 0/3 | 4/4 |
| Nov 2 | vs WPG | 4-3 OTL | 1/3 | 3/4 |
| Oct 31 | vs MTL | 5-4 OTL | 0/1 | 3/3 |
| Oct 27 | vs ANA | 5-2 W | 2/4 | 1/1 |
| Oct 25 | vs COL | 6-1 L | 0/4 | 2/3 |
The penalty kill has been a bright spot, working at an 86% clip, while the power play sits at 20%.
When it comes to margin of victory, it’s been tight. Over their first seven games, Vegas played in just a single one-goal game. In the nine since, they’ve played in five.
When the Golden Knights Head East
Since their history is brief, it’s easy to break down Vegas’ other trips to Toronto.
And they haven’t been kind.
Vegas Golden Knights Results in Toronto
| Season | Result | Shots For | Shots Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | 3-1 L | 37 | 20 |
| 2017/18 | 4-3 SOL | 28 | 25 |
The Golden Knights have lost both meetings with the Leafs in Ontario.
In their first, the Leafs were the fifth game of an Eastern Conference swing. Vegas would finish 1-4-1. Their second game in Toronto kicked off a four-game road trip. It was in the middle of a stretch that saw them play six of seven away from home.
Lots of love for the guy with 29 saves ?? pic.twitter.com/r0LgdF4nsq
— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 6, 2019
This year the Leafs are the second of a four-game road trip. All-time the Golden Knights are 1-4-2 in the second game of 3+ game road trips entirely against Eastern Conference opponents.
Home Ice Holds Key for Toronto Against Vegas
For some reason, the results just haven’t been there when the Golden Knights come East, so we’re siding with Toronto here. However, the Leafs special teams struggles mean they won’t be able to put Vegas away, and it’ll be another nail-biter.
We’re expecting the Leafs to win and a late empty-netter dashes the Golden Knights hopes of covering in a tight game.
Pick: Toronto (-135)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
