Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid Co-Favorites to Lead NHL in Assists at +200; No One Else Is Shorter Than +1000
- Nikita Kucherov led the NHL in assists last season with 87; Connor McDavid was second
- The two are co-favorites at +200, while the rest of the field caps starts at +1000
- Is it a two man race? Or is there a better bet in the field?
Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid are two of the most talented players in the NHL. They can set up their teammates just as easily as they can score.
Last year they finished with 41 goals each, while Kucherov led the league in assists with 87. McDavid was second with 75. Two years ago, McDavid led the league with 70.
They’re two of the best set-up men, and the odds reflect that. So will one of them lead the league in assists again?
Odds to Lead NHL in Assists During 2019/20 Season
| Player | 2018/19 Assists | 3-Year Average | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid, EDM | 75 | 71 | +200 |
| Nikita Kucherov, TB | 87 | 64 | +200 |
| Blake Wheeler, WPG | 71 | 62 | +1000 |
| Sidney Crosby, PIT | 65 | 57 | +1000 |
| Mitch Marner, TOR | 68 | 52 | +1000 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau, FLA | 62 | 40 | +1400 |
| Johnny Gaudreau, CGY | 63 | 55 | +1600 |
| Claude Giroux, PHI | 63 | 58 | +1800 |
| Nathan MacKinnon, COL | 58 | 51 | +1800 |
| Aleksander Barkov, FLA | 61 | 48 | +2000 |
| Brent Burns, SJS | 67 | 56 | +2000 |
| Mikko Rantanen, COL | 56 | 43 | +2000 |
| Patrick Kane, CHI | 66 | 57 | +2000 |
| Brad Marchand, BOS | 64 | 54 | +2200 |
| Jack Eichel, BUF | 54 | 42 | +2200 |
| Artemi Panarin, NYR | 59 | 52 | +3500 |
| Sebastian Aho, CAR | 53 | 38 | +3500 |
*Odds taken 09/27/2019
This isn’t the only place where McDavid and Kucherov sit atop the odds. They’re also tied in the Hart Trophy odds as well.
Taking the three-year averages into account, McDavid is head and shoulders above the rest.
Kucherov and Blake Wheeler define a consistent second tier. Wheeler tied for the lead in assists in 2017/18 with Claude Giroux.
But a lot can ride on their teammates.
Team Comparison for Top 5
| Player | Team | 2018/19 20 Goal Scorers | Top Goal Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers | 4 | 50 – Leon Draisaitl |
| Nikita Kucherov | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 45 – Steven Stamkos |
| Blake Wheeler | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 38 – Mark Scheifele |
| Sidney Crosby | Pittsburgh Penguins | 4 | 40 – Jake Guentzel |
| Mitch Marner | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 47 – John Tavares |
Thanks to Left Wing Lock, we can explore how much time each of the top five spends with their leading goal-scorers.
Kucherov may be in the best spot. The RFA question of Brayden Point is solved, and Tyler Johnson offers a solid floor. Kucherov also plays on a high-powered power play, where he logged 33 assists last year.
Blake Wheeler on Patrik Laine's "playing with best players" quotes:
"I would say those are all good things, man. You want guys that are hungry for more and not content with where (they're) at."
Full quote: pic.twitter.com/F668pRDdA0
— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) September 17, 2019
Wheeler and Mitch Marner would tie for second. While Kyle Connor is un-signed, maybe Patrik Laine finds some time on the top unit. Marner will sidle up along John Tavares again, while Kasperi Kapanen should fill out the line. He’s got higher upside than Zach Hyman, and that power play should hum.
Oilers had RNH McDavid and Draisaitl all on separate lines today. I don’t expect them to start this way, but it’s always an option if nobody grabs that number 3 C spot. Problem is it gets really thin on the wings when they do that.
— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) September 27, 2019
McDavid spent a lot of time with Leon Draisaitl last year, and that should happen again. But the Oilers are trying their seemingly-annual experiment of giving Draisaitl his own line. McDavid will produce with whoever, but taking away his elite winger could put him behind early in the assist race.
Crosby comes in last among the favorites. He’ll have Guentzel back, but he lacks the supporting cast of the others.
Picking Assist Leaders from the Field
While there are plenty of intriguing names after the top five, there are two that stand out.
Nathan MacKinnon and Aleksander Barkov.
#FlaPanthers Huberdeau on starting camp on the same line as Barkov, Dadonov: “I feel like the past few years we never really played together in training camp, so it’s good to kind of work on chemistry again. … Hopefully we can play the whole training camp together.” pic.twitter.com/qHYu3q8Brp
— Erin Brown (@rinkside) September 13, 2019
When we broke down the Art Ross odds, Nathan MacKinnon came across as a steal. His three-year average is a bit misleading. After posting 37 assists in 2017/18, he’s had 58 in each of the past two seasons.
Barkov is in the same boat as MacKinnon. His last two seasons have been great, with a massive jump coming in 2018/19. Florida’s top line is intact with Jonathan Huberdeau and Evgenii Dadonov.
https://twitter.com/AaronEkdad/status/1166559479736995841
Huberdeau made a similar jump last year, and Dadonov is coming off of back-to-back 28-goal seasons.
Will Nikita Kucherov Lead the NHL in Assists?
It seems pretty likely that Connor McDdavid and Nikita Kucherov will be close to the top once again, but they don’t offer much value. If we had to choose one, it’d be Kucherov.
🚨 Matthews puts the #Leafs up 3-0 on the PP pic.twitter.com/jsiBKxdd00
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) September 26, 2019
We really like Marner’s situation. He didn’t miss much of training camp, he’s an elite passer, and he’s paired with John Tavares. Want to go a little deeper than his +1000 price tag? Barkov may be your guy.
If that Florida top line produces as advertised, he should be fighting for top spot by season’s end.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
