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Odds Say Phil Hellmuth Wins 16th WSOP Bracelet Before Tiger Woods Wins His 16th Major

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in News

Updated Mar 28, 2020 · 12:17 PM PDT

Tiger Woods
Will Tiger Woods win another major this year? Photo by Pixabay (Public Domain) [CC License].
  • Phil Hellmuth will be going for his 16th World Series of Poker bracelet in May
  • Tiger Woods is favored to win the 2019 PGA Championship
  • Woods has a slight timing edge as the PGA Championship runs May 16th-19th while the WSOP doesn’t start until May 28th

Legendary poker player Phil Hellmuth has won a record 15 World Series of Poker bracelets. Legendary golfer Tiger Woods has won an impressive 15 majors. Sportsbooks have posted a betting line asking bettors which of the two is most likely to win their next big one. Let’s take a closer look and see where there’s value.

Odds on Whether Tiger Woods Wins His 16th Major Before Phil Hellmuth Wins His 16th WSOP Bracelet

What Will Happen First? Odds
Tiger Woods Wins 16th Golf Major +125
Phil Hellmuth Wins 16th WSOP Bracelet -165

*Odds taken 04/18/19

Will Hellmuth Win A WSOP Bracelet in 2019?

Hellmuth has won 15 WSOP bracelets but he’s anything but a sure thing to do it in 2019. We’re talking about a guy who won in 2018, 2015, a couple in 2012, one in 2007 and one in 2006. That means he has just six in the last 16 years.

Hellmuth has had a relatively quiet few months in Poker as he didn’t play in any notable events after the 2018 WSOP. He came back to the circuit with a win at the $1,590 No-Limit Hold’em Heads-Up event at the Borgata Winter Poker Open followed by a 102nd at the $3,500 No-Limit Hold’em $3 Million GTD. Other than that, he hasn’t played.

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He’s going to play in the 2019 WSOP and he’s going to enter a slew of events, but navigating those fields of entries isn’t easy.

Woods Favored at PGA Championship and US Open

Woods, who is coming off his first major win in 11 years, is now favored to win the PGA Championship next month and is also favored at the US Open in June. What’s interesting is that Woods has won at these courses before.

He’s won at Bethpage Black (2002), which is where the PGA Championship is, and at Pebble Beach (2000), the site of the 2019 US Open. In 2002, Woods led wire-to-wire and was the only player in the field to finish under par. And remember when the US Open was played at Bethpage Black in 2009, Woods didn’t win, but came from 15 strokes back to finish fourth.

As for Pebble Beach, Woods crushed the field in 2000, winning by a whopping 15 strokes (most in a major championship). He actually won twice at Pebble Beach that year and was in contention heading into the final round before shooting a deflating 75.

Woods will have two good shots this year before the British Open, which is at a course he has little familiarity with.

Age Working Against Woods

As impressive as his win at the Masters was, Woods is in the twilight of his career. Can he win one or two more? Sure, but he is defying age with each win.

At the same time, that isn’t as much of a factor for Hellmuth. He’s 54 years old, but we’ve seen players like Doyle Brunson win into their 80’s. Age is not as much of a factor for Hellmuth because professional poker isn’t as physically demanding as professional golf.

Hellmuth is 54 years old, but we’ve seen players like Doyle Brunson win into their 80’s.

With that in mind, injuries are also on the side of Hellmuth. Remember, this prop is graded at the end of 2020, so Woods is far more likely to succumb to an injury than Hellmuth is at the poker table.

Woods Has a Slight Timing Edge

One other key to this prop is to note that Woods will play in the 2019 PGA Championship from May 16th-19th, which will be before the 2019 WSOP, which starts on May 28th. That’s an advantage to Tiger. These two are not starting at the same time, so Woods has a timing edge.

Take a Flier on Woods

Hellmuth is no lock to win a WSOP bracelet, so I’m not sure why he’s favored. He’ll have far more cracks at getting a bracelet but Woods has a slight timing edge. I do believe Woods will be in contention at the PGA Championship, so since it comes ahead of the start of the 2019 WSOP, I’ll take a small flier on Woods as a dog.

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