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Midterm Election Odds Favor GOP Winning House and Senate

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics News

Oct 24, 2022 · 8:22 PM PDT

Midterm Election Odds
Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker speaks during a campaign event on Saturday October 15, 2022 in Savannah Georgia.
  • The GOP are -120 favorites to sweep to victory in both the House and Senate in the 2022 Midterm Election
  • Republicans are a huge -650 chalk to capture the House
  • All of the Midterm Election odds and predictions are outlined in the following story

Oddsmakers are projecting a huge day for the Republican Party on Nov. 8. That’s when the US Midterm election will be held, and all accounts are suggesting a return to power for the GOP is in order.

A Republican House and Republican Senate is the -120 favorite in the Midterm Election odds. On the other hand, a Democrat sweep of both houses of Congress is set at a betting line of +550.

Expectations are especially strong when it comes to the GOP wrestling control of the House of Representatives from the Democrats. Republicans are overwhelming -650 favorites to do just that.

2022 US Midterm Election Odds

Party Moneyline
Republican House and Republican Senate -120
Republican House and Democrat Senate +138
Democrat House and Democrat Senate +550
Democrat House and Republican Senate +3300

Odds as of October 24 at William Hill Sportsbook.

All 435 House seats are on the ballot in the 2022 Midterm Election. As well, 35 of 100 Senate seats are also in competition. Senators are elected to six-year terms. Those voted into power in 2016 must seek reelection in 2022. Democrats currently control both the House (222-213) and Senate (50-48, two Independents, ties broken by Vice-President Kamala Harris).

 

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Note that the odds quoted above are from William Hill and Bet365, sportsbooks. Those betting sites are permitted to offer political futures in European, UK, and Ontario markets. This market is not open to US bettors.

US Midterm Election Issues

The 2022 US Midterm Election is rife with hot-button issues that pundits believe hold the capability of swinging the outcome in either direction. Certainly, the economy is at the top of that list. The USA is currently enduring record highs in consumer pricing

Any Midterm Election is always a referendum on how satisfied the general public is with the job the current President is performing. The Republicans are seeking to frame the economy, the performance of the Joe Biden Administration and immigration as the issues American people should most be concerned about.

Meanwhile, Democrats are utilizing the performance of past President Donald Trump to fire up their base. Revelations that Trump pilfered top-secret documents from the White House when he lost the Presidency in 2020 are raising questions of national security concerns. Trump’s friendliness with Russian leader Vladimir Putin is also proving problematic for the Republicans ever since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The main issue that Democrats are pushing is abortion. The US Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs Wade. Then there’s the insistence of several Republicans that they will move for a 100% ban on abortion if they regain control of Congress. This is fueling Democrats voters to get out in numbers. Speculation that a Republican Congress might also reduce Social Security and Medicare is another concern. Gun violence and student loan forgiveness are also major issues.

Moore Hope for Democrats

They scoffed at Michael Moore when he insisted Trump would win the Presidency in 2016. They’re scoffing at him again as he’s predicting a blue tsunami that will drive the Democrats into power.

The Academy Award-winning filmmaker and prominent Democrat is insisting that women and young voters angry over the overturning of Roe vs Wade will be driving this wave. He’s going against the polls. The PredictIt.org markets favor GOP at 63%. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight.com favors the Dems at 61%.

Moore also took that approach in 2016 – and was proven to be correct.

Republicans Moving in on House Control

Slowly but steadily, the Republicans have been whittling away at Democrat control of the House. They narrowed the Democrat advantage from 235 seats in 2020 by regaining 15 seats from Democrats of the 21 required to flip the House. They’ll need to flip just six seats this time to gain control.

2022 US Midterm House Winner Odds

Party Moneyline
Republican -650
Democrat +400

Odds as of October 24 at Bet365.

Republicans reconfigured election districts via the 2020 Census when they were in power. These are expected to bolster the GOP chances of sweeping back to power in 2022.

This could be the first step to returning a Republican to the White House in 2024. Republicans Trump (+300) and Ron DeSantis (+325) are holding forth as 1-2 in the 2024 US Presidential odds. Biden is following in third (+525).

Biden is the +123 chalk in the Democratic nominee odds for the 2024 Presidential election. Trump is the -110 favorite in the Republican nominee odds.

Best Bets: Republican House (-650); Republican House, Democrat Senate (+138)

 

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