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Biden’s Chances to Win the White House Close to 80% With Wisconsin All But Called

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Politics

Nov 4, 2020 · 10:01 AM PST

Donald Trump frowning on stage
Donald Trump's paths to victory will dwindle further with Wisconsin going to Biden. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).
  • One Wisconsin outlet says the “unofficial” election results show Joe Biden winning the state
  • Biden, whose odds have been improving since late last night, has become an overwhelming favorite
  • See the latest live odds and probability for both Biden and Donald Trump to win the 2020 Presidential Election

In the last update (circa 11:30 am ET), Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election had improved to -482.

In the interim, the Wisconsin State Journal published a story stating that the “unofficial” election results show Biden winning the state.

Adding Wisconsin to Biden’s side of the ledger takes away one more path to victory from the Trump campaign. The odds have skewed even bluer as a result.

Live Presidential Election Odds and Probability

Candidate Live Odds True Probability
Joe Biden -482 78.5%
Donald Trump +341 21.5%

Odds as of  12:27 pm ET, Nov. 4th.

Biden Closing in on 270

The Wisconsin State Journal article was followed up by this tweet, adding credence to the notion that the Badger State is a done deal for the Dems.

With Wisconsin added, Biden will be sitting at 237 Electoral College votes. He would require 33 more to reach the necessary 270.

He still leads in Arizona (11 votes), Nevada (six votes), Michigan (16 votes), which would give him exactly 33 more votes.

He’s also favored to win Pennsylvania (20 votes) in the betting market, roughly a -240 favorite to Trump’s +180 odds. If he takes Pennsylvania, he could lose Nevada and Arizona and still win the election.

The results in Georgia (16 votes) are not final, either. Trump remains the favorite in that state (-280 to +205), but it creates several more realistic paths to victory for Biden.

Oddsmakers and bettors alike are recognizing the reality of the situation: Donald Trump needs multiple less-than-likely outcomes to win.

See SDB’s Presidential Election odds tracker for the latest odds and probability throughout the coming days.

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