Biden’s Election Odds Improve After Death of Ginsburg
- Democrat challenger Joe Biden’s lead in the odds to win the 2020 US Presidential election continue to grow
- He’s at -126 in the latest betting line, which came out Friday, the same day as the death of US Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
- Republican incumbent Donald Trump is at +103, his longest odds in a month
The Republican Party is viewing Friday’s death of US Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as an opportunity to rally their base in time for the upcoming Nov. 3 Presidential election.
The oddsmakers aren’t buying it.
Democratic challenger Joe Biden continues to lead Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent. In fact, Trump’s reelection odds are at their longest in a month’s time.
Across the leading sportsbooks, Biden is the -126 favorite to win the election.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Sept. 19th Odds | Sept. 16th Odds | Sept. 9th Odds | Trending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -126 | -122 | -114 | ↓ |
| Donald Trump | +103 | +100 | -110 | ↑ |
| Kamala Harris | +6700 | +6000 | +7167 | ↑ |
| Mike Pence | +12333 | +15333 | +15333 | ↓ |
| Hillary Clinton | +20000 | +18333 | +17167 | ↑ |
| Michelle Obama | +40000 | +40000 | +40000 | – |
| Nikki Haley | +53333 | +53333 | +53333 | – |
| Andrew Cuomo | +82500 | +82500 | +132500 | ↓ |
| Kanye West | +155000 | +155000 | +155000 | – |
| Elizabeth Warren | +107500 | +155500 | +175000 | ↓ |
Odds as of Sept. 19th
Trump’s betting line has lengthened to +103, his worst numbers since Aug. 21, when he was +104.
Will Republicans Replace Ginsburg?
There’s just 45 days until Americans go to the polls to elect a new President. However, even if he loses the election, the Trump administration remains in power until Jan. 20th, 2021.
The Republican Senate majority would also remain in place, even if the Democrats were to regain the Senate on Nov. 3.
That gives Republicans plenty of time to try and push through a conservative nominee as a new Supreme Court justice.
JUST IN: Trump says he'll likely nominate a #Ginsburg replacement next week pic.twitter.com/9vIvcv4WjA
— Bloomberg Originals (@bbgoriginals) September 19, 2020
Trump has already appointed Neil Gorusch and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court during his term as President.
How this would play out with the electorate, though, remains to be seen. Republicans pulled out all the stops to successfully prevent Democrat President Barack Obama from appointing Merrick Garland to the bench in the late stages of Obama’s time in the Oval Office.
I’m not a Democrat, I’m a conservative. But if we have ANY hope of trying to heal the ugly, poisonous, dangerous divide in this country, Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement must be chosen by whoever wins the Presidential election on November 3rd.
— Joe Walsh (@WalshFreedom) September 19, 2020
Democrats are insisting that no President should appoint a new Supreme Court justice until after the election. Republicans aren’t listening and plan to ramp up the process.
How the American electorate, especially undecided voters, view this whole process could potentially swing the Presidency one way or the other.
Trump Election Win Path Growing Grim
As recently as Aug. 10, Trump was the -110 chalk to win reelection.
However, the Sept. 19 numbers mark the fourth successive betting line in which his odds to capture the election grew longer. Trump’s poll numbers are also painting a gloomy portrait of his future in the White House.
A Republican pollster just told me that this court fight could motivate young women to turn out this year. "They may not vote for Biden, but they will vote for Ruth."
— Karen Tumulty (@ktumulty) September 19, 2020
In polling, 50% is considered to be a magic number. A candidate with 50% or more in the polls generally wins the election.
Currently, Biden is closing in on achieving that digit. The latest numbers from RealClearPolitics show Biden to be at 49.3% in national surveys. He holds a 6.2 percentage-point lead over Trump nationwide.
Swinging Toward Biden
Polls show Biden leading in 10 of 13 states that are considered to be battleground states capable of going either way on election night. Trump’s only leads are in Georgia, Texas and Iowa.
Biden has opened a nearly two-point lead in Florida (48.7% to 47.1%). He’s ahead in Minnesota (51.6%), Wisconsin (50%), Arizona (49.2%), Pennsylvania (49%), New Hampshire (48%) and Michigan (47.8%).
Recent battleground polls:
WI: ABC/Post – Biden +6
MN: ABC/Post – Biden +16
FL: Monmouth – Biden +5
NC: CNN/SPSS – Biden +3
WI: CNN/SPSS – Biden +10
AZ: CBS/YouGov – Biden +3
MN: CBS/YouGov – Biden +9
NH: NYT/Siena – Biden +3
NV: NYT/Siena – Biden +4
WI: NYT/Siena – Biden +5— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) September 16, 2020
This time around, there aren’t nearly the number of undecided voters that were available in 2016, and there’s no solid third-party candidate to play the role of X-factor.
Trump will need to sway some Biden voters over to his side of the final six weeks in order to win this battle.
As well, Trump is an incumbent. He’s running on his record. His best hope now is a strong debate performance against Biden.
The Presidential debates begin Sept. 29.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
