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Biden’s Election Odds Improve After Death of Ginsburg

Biden Ginsburg
Joe Biden's odds to be elected President have improved in wake of Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death on Friday night. Photo from @therecount (Twitter)
  • Democrat challenger Joe Biden’s lead in the odds to win the 2020 US Presidential election continue to grow
  • He’s at -126 in the latest betting line, which came out Friday, the same day as the death of US Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
  • Republican incumbent Donald Trump is at +103, his longest odds in a month

The Republican Party is viewing Friday’s death of US Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as an opportunity to rally their base in time for the upcoming Nov. 3 Presidential election.

The oddsmakers aren’t buying it.

Democratic challenger Joe Biden continues to lead Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent. In fact, Trump’s reelection odds are at their longest in a month’s time.

Across the leading sportsbooks, Biden is the -126 favorite to win the election.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate Sept. 19th Odds Sept. 16th Odds Sept. 9th Odds Trending
Joe Biden -126 -122 -114
Donald Trump +103 +100 -110
Kamala Harris +6700 +6000 +7167
Mike Pence +12333 +15333 +15333
Hillary Clinton +20000 +18333 +17167
Michelle Obama +40000 +40000 +40000
Nikki Haley +53333 +53333 +53333
Andrew Cuomo +82500 +82500 +132500
Kanye West +155000 +155000 +155000
Elizabeth Warren +107500 +155500 +175000

Odds as of Sept. 19th

Trump’s betting line has lengthened to +103, his worst numbers since Aug. 21, when he was +104.

Will Republicans Replace Ginsburg?

There’s just 45 days until Americans go to the polls to elect a new President. However, even if he loses the election, the Trump administration remains in power until Jan. 20th, 2021.

The Republican Senate majority would also remain in place, even if the Democrats were to regain the Senate on Nov. 3.

That gives Republicans plenty of time to try and push through a conservative nominee as a new Supreme Court justice.

Trump has already appointed Neil Gorusch and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court during his term as President.

How this would play out with the electorate, though, remains to be seen. Republicans pulled out all the stops to successfully prevent Democrat President Barack Obama from appointing Merrick Garland to the bench in the late stages of Obama’s time in the Oval Office.

Democrats are insisting that no President should appoint a new Supreme Court justice until after the election. Republicans aren’t listening and plan to ramp up the process.

How the American electorate, especially undecided voters, view this whole process could potentially swing the Presidency one way or the other.

Trump Election Win Path Growing Grim

As recently as Aug. 10, Trump was the -110 chalk to win reelection.

However, the Sept. 19 numbers mark the fourth successive betting line in which his odds to capture the election grew longer. Trump’s poll numbers are also painting a gloomy portrait of his future in the White House.

In polling, 50% is considered to be a magic number. A candidate with 50% or more in the polls generally wins the election.

Currently, Biden is closing in on achieving that digit. The latest numbers from RealClearPolitics show Biden to be at 49.3% in national surveys. He holds a 6.2 percentage-point lead over Trump nationwide.

Swinging Toward Biden

Polls show Biden leading in 10 of 13 states that are considered to be battleground states capable of going either way on election night. Trump’s only leads are in Georgia, Texas and Iowa.

Biden has opened a nearly two-point lead in Florida (48.7% to 47.1%). He’s ahead in Minnesota (51.6%), Wisconsin (50%), Arizona (49.2%), Pennsylvania (49%), New Hampshire (48%) and Michigan (47.8%).

This time around, there aren’t nearly the number of undecided voters that were available in 2016, and there’s no solid third-party candidate to play the role of X-factor.

Trump will need to sway some Biden voters over to his side of the final six weeks in order to win this battle.

As well, Trump is an incumbent. He’s running on his record.  His best hope now is a strong debate performance against Biden.

The Presidential debates begin Sept. 29.

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