Joe Biden’s Odds to Be 2024 Democratic Nominee Continue to Improve; Anti-Vaxxer Robert Kennedy Sits Distant Second

• Incumbent Joe Biden has become the presumptive 2024 Democratic Party nominee with no other viable candidates emerging
• Now north of 80 years old, Biden was a +700 longshot when this market first opened in November 2020
• Below, see the current Democratic nominee favorites in the political-betting landscape

Immediately after Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, a certain subset of international sportsbooks posted odds to win both the 2024 election and the nominations for both the Democratic and Republican parties.

The opening odds, particularly for the Democrats, were unlike anything ever seen in this relatively nascent betting market. The President-Elect, Biden, was a +700 longshot to be his party’s nominee in just four years’ time.

Three years later, the situations is starkly different, and now-80-year-old Biden is the presumptive nominee.

2024 Democratic Nomination Odds

The odds above come from DraftKings Sportsbook Ontario, with the exception of Marianne Williamson, who is not listed at DraftKings but is listed at Bet365 Ontario. The current landscape shows that Biden has become the presumptive nominee, at least as far as bettors are concerned.

The incumbent sits at -500 in the Democratic nominee odds as of late May. Names listed in bold have announced they are seeking the Democratic Party nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

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Biden’s Odds Steadily Improve

Biden has, for the most part, seen his odds consistently improve since November 2020. The opening odds, which positioned Vice-President Kamala Harris as a +250 favorite, didn’t even list Biden second. That honor went jointly to Michelle Obama and Stacey Abrams at +600, with Biden fourth at +700, narrowly ahead of Andrew Yang (+800), Pete Buttiegege (+900), and Beto O’Rourke (+1000).

Essentially, the early 2024 Democratic nominee odds predicted a wide-open race, with then-55-year-old VEEP Harris the tepid favorite.

While Biden’s polling numbers have been far from ideal in the interim, his odds show a steady trajectory. By December 2020, he had already improved to +375, only narrowly behind Harris, who had dropped to +300.

Early in 2021, Biden took over favorite status – albeit modestly at +238 – and he hasn’t looked back.  By the end of 2021, he was approaching even money. By the start of 2023, his odds carried an implied win probability well over 50%. Now in May, at -425 on average, his implied win probability is over 80% (80.95).

The major motivating factor for the recent movement came in April 2023, when Biden officially announced that he would be seeking re-election in the 2024 election.

Biden is also a modest favorite in the current 2024 presidential election odds, sitting at an average of +195 at the start of April and improving slightly after announcing his re-election bid.

No Other Viable Candidates for Democrats?

When Harris opened as the favorite, it had everything to do with the possibility that Biden – who will be 81 by election day – would not run again, for one reason or another. But POTUS has thwarted Father Time long enough to seek re-election, and the list of challengers is short and undistinguished.

His chief opponent as of May 2023 is conspiracy theorist and anti-vaxxer Robert Kennedy Jr, the son of former US attorney general Robert Francis Kennedy. Kennedy Jr, an environmental lawyer and author by trade, has never held public office and does not appear to possess the political savvy of so many Kennedys before him.

After announcing his candidacy for the Democratic nomination in April, RFK Jr opened at +800 to win.

The most-recent CNN poll showed that, among Democratic-leaning voters, 60% favored Biden, 20% Kennedy, and 8% Williamson, with another 8% effectively siding with anyone else.

Williamson, a self-help author often described as “Oprah’s spiritual advisor”, announced her bid for the 2024 Democratic nomination in February 2023. Williamson also sought the 2020 nomination but only qualified for the first two debates and abandoned her run in January 2020 after garnering little support.