September Democratic Debate Odds & Props: Will Warren Hit Her Talking Points?
- Online sportsbooks have released a series of prop wagers on the next Democratic Presidential debate
- Elizabeth Warren is the candidate favored to receive the most speaking time during the debate
- There are props dealing with Russia, Donald Trump, climate change and impeachment
For the first time, all of the leading contenders for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination will find themselves on the same debate stage. Oddsmakers have decided it’s time to give them their props.
Online betting sites have issued a series of prop wagers relating to outcomes that will take place during the debate on Sept. 12 in Houston.
Who Will Get The Most Speaking Time During The Debate?
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Elizabeth Warren | +225 |
| Joe Biden | +250 |
| Bernie Sanders | +400 |
| Beto O’Rourke | +400 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +600 |
| Kamala Harris | +600 |
| Cory Booker | +1000 |
| Julian Castro | +1000 |
| Andrew Yang | +1000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +2500 |
Odds taken on 09/11/19.
During the July debate in Detroit, which was split over two days, Elizabeth Warren’s gums flapped the most on the first night. She spoke for 18:33, edging out Bernie Sanders, who came in at 17:45.
The second night saw Joe Biden way out front with 21:27 of speaking time. He was followed by Kamala Harris at 17:18.
The dynamic will be different this time around, with the top candidates all on stage together for the first time. It’s going to be the first time that Warren debates against both Biden and Harris, for instance.
The top candidates definitely dominated the speaking time allowed.
A lot of Delaney's time was spent being matched against Warren, but I think Ryan made good use of his time as well.
Williamson made the most of her 8:52 and she had better be in the third debate! #DemDebate pic.twitter.com/9CWA021na2
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) July 31, 2019
Warren is emerging as a key front runner, and hasn’t been drawn into petty disputes that have afflicted some of the other candidates. But knowing that she’s growing stronger in her support, the others figure to be in attack mode. You can be sure they’ll all have a plan for that.
They’ll be trying to put some dents in Warren, or at the very least get her on the defensive.
Look for Sanders to lead the way in that department.
Pick: Bernie Sanders (+400)
Total Non-Facts Spoken By Candidates During The Debate?
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 6.5 | -120 |
| Under 6.5 | -120 |
The Associated Press easily found seven documented examples of false facts during the second round of the July debate.
When you put that many politicians in a room together, here’s a wise rule of thumb to follow – always bet the over when it comes to how many times that they won’t be telling the truth.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120)
How Many Non-Facts Will Be Spoken By Joe Biden During The Debate?
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | -120 |
| Under 1.5 | -120 |
Those 10 non-facts that AP was able to unearth during the last debate?
I'm torn on Joe Biden.
On the one hand, I find his daily gaffes hilarious and disqualifying.
On the other, I fear they will cause him not to win the Nomination, which would make #Trump2020 a slam dunk.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) September 9, 2019
Two of them came from Biden.
Pick: Over 1.5 (-120)
How Many Times Will Climate Change Be Said During The Debate?
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 13.5 | -120 |
| Under 13.5 | -120 |
Fires in the Amazon. Pipelines. Fracking. Drilling in Alaska. Climate change is a hot-button issue with those on the left, and it will be a hot topic.
Joe Biden: "The greatest crisis of our time is climate change." pic.twitter.com/OOHuQgQ2Cf
— The Hill (@thehill) September 9, 2019
A Pew Research Center poll showed 57 percent of Americans consider climate change to be a major issue in the upcoming election.
You know that it’s going to be talked about on the debate stage on Thursday. And it will be talked about a lot.
Pick: Over 13.5 (-120).
How Many Times Will Dorian Be Said During The Debate?
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | -120 |
| Under 2.5 | -120 |
Discussion of the recent hurricane will go hand-in-hand with the talk of climate change.
As well, there’s no doubt that that candidates will want to bring up how President Trump mishandled the previous storm damage in Puerto Rico, as well as how he turned away victims of Dorian from the Bahamas when they sought refuge in the United States.
The federal government failed our fellow US citizens in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. We cannot fail them again. #Dorian pic.twitter.com/Y4jCo6mwdY
— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) August 28, 2019
You can be sure they will also mention how Trump went golfing while the storm was threatening the US coast. They also won’t be able to resist the opportunity to mock Trump’s obsession over his mistaken inclusion of Alabama as states that would definitely be hit by Dorian.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-120).
How Many Times Will Russia Be Said During The Debate?
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | -120 |
| Under 3.5 | -120 |
Trump’s ties to Russia always prop this subject up as a prime debate topic. Adding fuel to the fire was the recent revelation that the CIA pulled a top operative working inside the Russian government. They feared that Trump might expose the operative.
One new constant of the US-Russia relationship under Trump is the constant trolling of the US president by Russian state media. https://t.co/fuQiEyar5K
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) September 10, 2019
You don’t think the fact that a sitting US President was viewed as a national security threat by the CIA might become a topic of conversation during a debate among those seeking to unseat that President, now do you?
Pick: Over 3.5 (-120).
How Many Times Will Donald Trump Tweet During The Debate?
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | -120 |
| Under 3.5 | -120 |
Talk about a gift. Trump tweets 3.5 times just for fun. He’ll have his full tweet rage on during the debate as the candidates hammer away at his record.
They do stories so big on Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren’s crowd sizes, adding many more people than are actually there, and yet my crowds, which are far bigger, get no coverage at all. Fake News!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 27, 2019
He might hit 3.5 tweets in the first 20 minutes.
Pick: Over 3.5 (-120).
Will Impeach Be Said By Any Candidate During The Debate?
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -120 |
| No | -120 |
Of course impeachment will come up during the debate. Many Democratic supporters are in utter disbelief that impeachment proceedings against Trump have yet to begin.
In Nov 2017, House Dems introduced a resolution to impeach Trump on emoluments, foreign and domestic. Dems have *always* known he was in violation.
What they didn't have was control of the House itself. But once they got it in 2018, Pelosi suppressed their impeachment inquiries.
— Sarah Kendzior (@sarahkendzior) September 9, 2019
Some are looking upon this as a sign of weakness within the party, and it could cost the nominee some support among the Democratic base if they don’t strongly view some of Trump’s actions during his time in office as impeachable offenses.
Pick: Yes (-120).
Will Any Candidate Say Trump During Their Closing Statement?
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -120 |
| No | -120 |
How could they not? Trump’s antics are their ace in the hole.
"I feel sorry for the President," Pete Buttigieg says on President Trump appearing to show an altered Hurricane Dorian trajectory map. “It makes you feel a kind of pity for everybody involved” https://t.co/jB9dijv8yU pic.twitter.com/ENma54ygE9
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) September 5, 2019
Removing him from office is their mission.
Pick: Yes (-120).
Who Will Have The Higher National Poll Average On 9/19/19?
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Elizabeth Warren | -175 |
| Bernie Sanders | +135 |
An Economist/YouGov poll on the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination released on Sept. 11 shows Biden and Warren in a dead heat at 24 percent. Sanders is third at 17 percent.
#NEW: Warren & Biden tied in poll of the 2020 Dem primary from The Economist and YouGov.
% support (likely voters):
Warren: 24
Biden: 24
Sanders: 17
Harris: 6
Buttigieg: 5
Yang: 2
Booker: 2
Castro: 2
Gabbard: 1
O'Rourke: 1Our average & demographics at: https://t.co/82ZDJQsyPH
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) September 11, 2019
Warren has proven to be a solid debater. She stays on point and doesn’t commit a major faux pas on any issue.
It’s unlikely that Sanders will be able to put a dent in her lead over him during one night of debating.
Pick: Elizabeth Warren (-175).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
