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September Democratic Debate Odds & Props: Will Warren Hit Her Talking Points?

Elizabeth Warren orating
Online sportsbooks favor Elizabeth Warren to have the most speaking time in its prop wagers on the next Democratic debate. Photo by Gage Skidmore (Wikimedia Commons).
  • Online sportsbooks have released a series of prop wagers on the next Democratic Presidential debate
  • Elizabeth Warren is the candidate favored to receive the most speaking time during the debate
  • There are props dealing with Russia, Donald Trump, climate change and impeachment

For the first time, all of the leading contenders for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination will find themselves on the same debate stage. Oddsmakers have decided it’s time to give them their props.

Online betting sites have issued a series of prop wagers relating to outcomes that will take place during the debate on Sept. 12 in Houston.

Who Will Get The Most Speaking Time During The Debate?

Candidate Odds
Elizabeth Warren +225
Joe Biden +250
Bernie Sanders +400
Beto O’Rourke +400
Pete Buttigieg +600
Kamala Harris +600
Cory Booker +1000
Julian Castro +1000
Andrew Yang +1000
Amy Klobuchar +2500

Odds taken on 09/11/19. 

During the July debate in Detroit, which was split over two days, Elizabeth Warren’s gums flapped the most on the first night. She spoke for 18:33, edging out Bernie Sanders, who came in at 17:45.

The second night saw Joe Biden way out front with 21:27 of speaking time. He was followed by Kamala Harris at 17:18.

The dynamic will be different this time around, with the top candidates all on stage together for the first time. It’s going to be the first time that Warren debates against both Biden and Harris, for instance.

Warren is emerging as a key front runner, and hasn’t been drawn into petty disputes that have afflicted some of the other candidates. But knowing that she’s growing stronger in her support, the others figure to be in attack mode. You can be sure they’ll all have a plan for that.

They’ll be trying to put some dents in Warren, or at the very least get her on the defensive.

Look for Sanders to lead the way in that department.

Pick: Bernie Sanders (+400)

Total Non-Facts Spoken By Candidates During The Debate?

Total Odds
Over 6.5 -120
Under 6.5 -120

The Associated Press easily found seven documented examples of false facts during the second round of the July debate.

When you put that many politicians in a room together, here’s a wise rule of thumb to follow – always bet the over when it comes to how many times that they won’t be telling the truth.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-120)

How Many Non-Facts Will Be Spoken By Joe Biden During The Debate?

Total Odds
Over 1.5 -120
Under 1.5 -120

Those 10 non-facts that AP was able to unearth during the last debate?

Two of them came from Biden.

Pick: Over 1.5 (-120)

How Many Times Will Climate Change Be Said During The Debate?

Total Odds
Over 13.5 -120
Under 13.5 -120

Fires in the Amazon. Pipelines. Fracking. Drilling in Alaska. Climate change is a hot-button issue with those on the left, and it will be a hot topic.

A Pew Research Center poll showed 57 percent of Americans consider climate change to be a major issue in the upcoming election.

You know that it’s going to be talked about on the debate stage on Thursday. And it will be talked about a lot.

Pick: Over 13.5 (-120).

How Many Times Will Dorian Be Said During The Debate?

Total Odds
Over 2.5 -120
Under 2.5 -120

Discussion of the recent hurricane will go hand-in-hand with the talk of climate change.

As well, there’s no doubt that that candidates will want to bring up how President Trump mishandled the previous storm damage in Puerto Rico, as well as how he turned away victims of Dorian from the Bahamas when they sought refuge in the United States.

You can be sure they will also mention how Trump went golfing while the storm was threatening the US coast. They also won’t be able to resist the opportunity to mock Trump’s obsession over his mistaken inclusion of Alabama as states that would definitely be hit by Dorian.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-120).

How Many Times Will Russia Be Said During The Debate?

Total Odds
Over 3.5 -120
Under 3.5 -120

Trump’s ties to Russia always prop this subject up as a prime debate topic. Adding fuel to the fire was the recent revelation that the CIA pulled a top operative working inside the Russian government. They feared that Trump might expose the operative.

You don’t think the fact that a sitting US President was viewed as a national security threat by the CIA might become a topic of conversation during a debate among those seeking to unseat that President, now do you?

Pick: Over 3.5 (-120).

How Many Times Will Donald Trump Tweet During The Debate?

Total Odds
Over 3.5 -120
Under 3.5 -120

Talk about a gift. Trump tweets 3.5 times just for fun. He’ll have his full tweet rage on during the debate as the candidates hammer away at his record.

He might hit 3.5 tweets in the first 20 minutes.

Pick: Over 3.5 (-120).


Will Impeach Be Said By Any Candidate During The Debate?

Outcome Odds
Yes -120
No -120

Of course impeachment will come up during the debate. Many Democratic supporters are in utter disbelief that impeachment proceedings against Trump have yet to begin.

Some are looking upon this as a sign of weakness within the party, and it could cost the nominee some support among the Democratic base if they don’t strongly view some of Trump’s actions during his time in office as impeachable offenses.

Pick: Yes (-120).

Will Any Candidate Say Trump During Their Closing Statement?

Outcome Odds
Yes -120
No -120

How could they not? Trump’s antics are their ace in the hole.

Removing him from office is their mission.

Pick: Yes (-120).

Who Will Have The Higher National Poll Average On 9/19/19?

Candidate Odds
Elizabeth Warren -175
Bernie Sanders +135

An Economist/YouGov poll on the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination released on Sept. 11 shows Biden and Warren in a dead heat at 24 percent. Sanders is third at 17 percent.

Warren has proven to be a solid debater. She stays on point and doesn’t commit a major faux pas on any issue.

It’s unlikely that Sanders will be able to put a dent in her lead over him during one night of debating.

Pick: Elizabeth Warren (-175).

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