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Trump Hints at 2024 Run During CPAC Speech, Election Odds Improve to +683

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Politics

Mar 1, 2021 · 11:20 AM PST

Former President Donald Trump speaks at CPAC in Feb. 2021.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
  • Donald Trump’s speech at the CPAC conference last weekend was well-received by the GOP base
  • Trump teased that he would run again in 2024
  • His odds to win the 2024 presidential election improved significantly

Donald Trump’s speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Sunday, Feb. 28th, took direct aim at President Joe Biden while hinting at a “Trump 2024” campaign.

The result in the betting world was a dramatic improvement in Trump’s 2024 presidential election odds and Republican nomination odds.

2024 Presidential Election Odds

Candidate (Party) Mar. 1st Odds Feb. 17th Odds
Joe Biden (Dem) +388 +388
Kamala Harris (Dem) +388 +388
Donald Trump Sr (GOP) +683 +900
Nikki Haley (GOP) +1167 +1233
Mike Pence (GOP) +1467 +1400
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Dem) +1950 +1950
Jeff Bezos (TBD) +2000 +2000
Ivanka Trump (GOP) +2250 +2250
Michelle Obama (Dem) +2400 +2400
Ron DeSantis (GOP) +2567 +3833
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (TBD) +2650 +2000
Michael Flynn (GOP) +2800 +2800
Ted Cruz (GOP) +2950 +4450
Pete Buttigieg (Dem) +3000 +3000
Elizabeth Warren (Dem) +3200 +3200

Odds as of March 1st, 2021.

Trump Doesn’t Plan to Fracture GOP

Some pundits theorized that Trump may start his own political party in the wake of his second impeachment, an impeachment which garnered more bipartisan support than any previous impeachment proceeding. There is clearly a segment of the GOP that wants the Republican Party to move in a new, Trump-less direction.

Trump is showing no signs of leaving the Republican Party or fading into the political background, though. The ex-president stated in his CPAC speech, “I may even decide to beat [the Democrats] for a third time,” which leaves the door open for a 2024 run while tripling-down on his baseless claim that the 2020 election was “stolen”.

Meanwhile, in a poll among conference attendees, Trump was the overwhelming choice to be the party nominee in 2024. He received 55% of the vote. No other potential candidate received more than 21% (Florida Governor Ron DeSantis).

That’s not a great result for Trump, but it also shows the lack of a major threat within the party.

Who’s Trending Down?

As predicted, Dwayne Johnson has started to see his election odds fade (+2000 to +2650). He hasn’t stated that he’s even considering a run and it’s not clear which party’s nomination he would seek.

Andrew Yang  (+4867 to +5400) also went south in the odds. The UBI advocate is focused on becoming the next mayor of New York City, not the 47th POTUS.

Staying in New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo fell precipitously (+4675 to +6550) as new allegations of harassment arise and his handling of the COVID pandemic comes under fire.

Mitt Romney, one of Trump’s main nemeses within the GOP, moved from +8867 to +9333. It’s not a big drop, but it’s in keeping with Trump’s rise. If the GOP is to remain Trump Central, the Mitt Romneys and Liz Cheneys of the world will inevitably become party outsiders.

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