- Donald Trump’s speech at the CPAC conference last weekend was well-received by the GOP base
- Trump teased that he would run again in 2024
- His odds to win the 2024 presidential election improved significantly
Donald Trump’s speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Sunday, Feb. 28th, took direct aim at President Joe Biden while hinting at a “Trump 2024” campaign.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
|Candidate (Party)||Mar. 1st Odds||Feb. 17th Odds|
|Joe Biden (Dem)||+388||+388|
|Kamala Harris (Dem)||+388||+388|
|Donald Trump Sr (GOP)||+683||+900|
|Nikki Haley (GOP)||+1167||+1233|
|Mike Pence (GOP)||+1467||+1400|
|Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Dem)||+1950||+1950|
|Jeff Bezos (TBD)||+2000||+2000|
|Ivanka Trump (GOP)||+2250||+2250|
|Michelle Obama (Dem)||+2400||+2400|
|Ron DeSantis (GOP)||+2567||+3833|
|Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (TBD)||+2650||+2000|
|Michael Flynn (GOP)||+2800||+2800|
|Ted Cruz (GOP)||+2950||+4450|
|Pete Buttigieg (Dem)||+3000||+3000|
|Elizabeth Warren (Dem)||+3200||+3200|
Odds as of March 1st, 2021.
Trump Doesn’t Plan to Fracture GOP
Some pundits theorized that Trump may start his own political party in the wake of his second impeachment, an impeachment which garnered more bipartisan support than any previous impeachment proceeding. There is clearly a segment of the GOP that wants the Republican Party to move in a new, Trump-less direction.
Trump is showing no signs of leaving the Republican Party or fading into the political background, though. The ex-president stated in his CPAC speech, “I may even decide to beat [the Democrats] for a third time,” which leaves the door open for a 2024 run while tripling-down on his baseless claim that the 2020 election was “stolen”.
Meanwhile, in a poll among conference attendees, Trump was the overwhelming choice to be the party nominee in 2024. He received 55% of the vote. No other potential candidate received more than 21% (Florida Governor Ron DeSantis).
CPAC straw poll of potential 2024 Republican presidential candidates:
KRISTI NOEM: 4
NIKKI HALEY: 3 pic.twitter.com/AK0ktJ4YZ7
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 28, 2021
That’s not a great result for Trump, but it also shows the lack of a major threat within the party.
Who’s Trending Down?
As predicted, Dwayne Johnson has started to see his election odds fade (+2000 to +2650). He hasn’t stated that he’s even considering a run and it’s not clear which party’s nomination he would seek.
Andrew Yang (+4867 to +5400) also went south in the odds. The UBI advocate is focused on becoming the next mayor of New York City, not the 47th POTUS.
"In my bid to become New York's next mayor, implementing the largest basic income program in the country and establishing a public bank are among my top policy priorities," Andrew Yang writes. | Opinion https://t.co/Z5Jx6i2FhY
— CNN (@CNN) February 5, 2021
Staying in New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo fell precipitously (+4675 to +6550) as new allegations of harassment arise and his handling of the COVID pandemic comes under fire.
Mitt Romney, one of Trump’s main nemeses within the GOP, moved from +8867 to +9333. It’s not a big drop, but it’s in keeping with Trump’s rise. If the GOP is to remain Trump Central, the Mitt Romneys and Liz Cheneys of the world will inevitably become party outsiders.