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Trump Impeachment Odds Remain Unchanged As Corsi Plea Deal Looms

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Politics

Nov 24, 2018 · 12:44 PM PST

Robert Mueller reels another one in, but will it have any effect on Trump?
Robert Mueller reels another one in, but will it have any effect on Trump? Photo by Gage Skidmore (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Robert Mueller can add another name to his list of cooperators
  • Jerome Corsi, an ally of Roger Stone, is currently negotiating a plea deal with the Special Counsel
  • What does this mean for Trump and his chances of impeachment?

The Mueller Investigation has taken another step towards Donald Trump. The latest addition to his list of cooperators is Jerome Corsi, an ally of Roger Stone.

Unless you were neck-deep in the Obama birther conspiracy, you’ve probably never heard of Corsi. He works for InfoWars, a conspiracy website, and may have coordinated with Wikileaks during the 2016 election.

Corsi is currently in plea talks with Mueller and could provide information that could implicate Stone or even Trump. But despite all this, the odds-makers remain unfazed on the topic of impeachment.

Trump Impeachment Odds

Will Donald Trump Be Impeached In His 1st Term? Odds
Yes +150
No -180

Forget about the Russia investigation for a moment.

If we want to break down Trump’s odds of being impeached, we should focus on the House Democrats.

The Dems won 234 seats (possibly 235) over the Midterms, placing them well beyond the 218 needed for a majority. If the House Democrats decide to impeach, they could do it without a single Republican vote.

Nancy Pelosi is likely to reclaim the mantle of House speaker, but she faces some fierce opposition from within her own party. She can only afford to lose fifteen votes — assuming she receives no support from House Republicans — and earlier this week 16 House Dems called for a change in leadership.

A couple of names on that list have since softened their tone, but nine other Democrats from the so-called “Problem Solvers” caucus have since come out with some new demands.

The Problem Solvers caucus is a bipartisan group committed to “breaking the gridlock” and ending “obstructionism and pure partisanship.” If Pelosi yields to the Problem Solvers, then we can take impeachment off the table. She’s already hinted that she will tamp down calls for impeachment from representatives like Maxine Waters.

If Pelosi yields to the Problem Solvers, then we can take impeachment off the table.

Even if Pelosi wasn’t being pressured by the “moderate wing” of the party, it’s likely she would still be extremely reluctant to push for impeachment.

She muzzled Democrats who wanted to impeach Bush in 2007 for the Iraq War, and in her first statement after the Midterms she vowed to “seek common ground.” Now even Trump supports Pelosi for House Speaker. That should tell you everything you need to know.

What would need to be uncovered by the Russia investigation to prompt the House to begin impeachment proceedings? Trump already admitted that he fired James Comey because of “this Russia thing.”

He fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions, which was supposedly a red line for many Democrats and even some Republicans, and installed one of his loyalists to supervise the investigation. He’s even ordered the White House Counsel to fire Mueller.

None of that made a difference. Unless something truly groundbreaking surfaces, it’s safe to assume that the House won’t move to impeach.

Pick: No (-180)

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