Trump Narrowly Leads Latest 2020 Election Odds; Is Biden Undervalued with Bernie Out of the Race?

• Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign, which means Joe Biden will be the 2020 Democratic Party nominee
• Biden had recently been favored to beat Donald Trump but Trump is now back in front
• Biden has a decent shot but the lack of enthusiasm behind him and jilted Sanders support could end up hurting him. Read odd for updated odds for the presidential election

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has officially dropped out of the race to be Democratic Nominee, which means we now know that the 2020 election will be incumbent Donald Trump against former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump is currently favored but is there any value on Biden at this point?

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Top Contenders

Odds as of Apr. 8, 2020.

Sanders Drops Out After Wisconsin Primary

There was a lot of controversy surrounding the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday as to whether or not the state should allow people to vote. Long lines at polling stations raised concerns about spreading the coronavirus as it proved hard to social distance in those areas.

"If I believed we had a feasible path to the nomination, I would certainly continue the campaign, but it's just not there," Bernie Sanders said in his livestream address, announcing the end to his 2020 presidential campaign https://t.co/VXWQUIxIDy pic.twitter.com/PFpqGeiqCx

— TIME (@TIME) April 8, 2020

While we don’t know the results of the primary (results aren’t expected until Monday), the general sense is that Bernie Sanders did not do well. Some of the last polls we saw showed Biden with a 28-point lead over Sanders (Marquette Law School survey) and that’s not what Sanders was hoping for.

At the end of the day, there was no real path for him to the nomination, so he dropped out.

Biden Faces Headwinds

Biden was briefly favored for the 2020 elections odds but the line has quickly swung back in Trump’s favor. That’s because Biden is likely to face an onslaught of criticism like he’s never seen and the question is whether or not he’ll be able to handle it.

JOE BIDEN: “We cannot let this, we’ve never allowed any crisis from the Civil War straight through to the pandemic of 17, all the way around, 16, we have never, never let our democracy sakes second fiddle, way they, we can both have a democracy and … correct the public health.” pic.twitter.com/ufXFh5cAtY

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) April 7, 2020

To start, get ready to hear more about Hunter Biden than you’ve ever heard. He came up during the impeachment inquiry and while Hunter Biden didn’t do anything illegal, he definitely did some shady things that won’t sit well with the public.

Beyond that, Biden has had a tough time with his speech of late, to put it mildly. He’s 78 years old and has trouble maintaining his focus to finish sentences. In public appearances, he’s had to rely on notes just to stay on track with his thoughts. While criticizing someone’s cognitive decline might be harsh, the reality is that voters will notice this.

Democrats had four years to find a candidate that could beat Trump and they ended up with a guy that literally cannot form sentences anymore.

— Rob Pizzola (@robpizzola) April 8, 2020

The last problem is that nobody in the progressive win of the Democratic Party is happy with how the primary turned out. Sanders had a huge lead before Super Tuesday and then all of the candidates that were in the moderate lane coincidentally dropped out at the same time and coalesced behind Biden.

At the same time, Elizabeth Warren, who shared Sanders’ progressive lane, stayed in the race. As a result, Biden came back to life and Sanders withered. That won’t be lost on young voters who feel like they really got screwed again by the Democratic Party.

Biden Enthusiasm Is a Concern

A recent poll came out that showed that only 24% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting for Biden. That’s startlingly low as Hillary Clinton was at 32% – eight points higher – and she still lost. That has to change quickly or he’s going to get smoked among independents – and in general.

CNN – 3/5/2019 – A year ago, this focus group showed why #Biden has the low enthusiasm polling numbers.

"How many of you would like to see Joe Biden get in…show your hands"

No hands go up

"His time is done…he comes from the good old boy politics"#BidenLosesToTrump pic.twitter.com/2m4NLtlLeW

— CaseStudyQB (@CaseStudyQB) April 5, 2020

That’s a bit bizarre as enthusiasm should be high among Democrats to get Trump out. Biden’s main case is that he’s the alternative to Trump. The left has hated Trump for so long and now has a chance to out him. From the blunt rhetoric to the chaos in the White House to the lack of press briefings, that can all change.

That should be extremely attractive to Democrats. The word ‘Trump’ causes so much vitriol among the left that they should be chomping at the bit to make a change. However, the Democratic Party seems to be craving a progressive and we’ll have to see if Biden can change their minds.

Biden is another corporate Democrat who is bringing old school politics back to the fray, with no Medicare-For-All – something a lot of Democrats care for – and little to help the young people in the party. I’m not sure he can change their minds in the coming months.

It’s All About the Economy

Whether you like him or not, it’s hard not to bet on Trump in this spot. Assuming the coronavirus pandemic recedes before July – and we should be well on the downslope by then – Trump will be hard to beat. That’s because he has the economy as his main backstop either way.

“President Trump rebuilt one broken economy, he’s going to do it again” – the economy wasn’t broken when Trump inherited it pic.twitter.com/JrO6zWSKfU

— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) April 7, 2020

Incumbents are hard to beat when the economy is great and if the economy starts to return to what it was before by July, August and September, Trump will be hard to oust. If the pandemic lingers and the economy is still struggling, Trump can argue that he’s the better of the two to fix the economy.

What’s the Best Bet?

It’s hard to bet on Biden these days because – as Joe Rogan says – Biden doesn’t appear like he can properly piece together sentences. When he’s forced to get on the debate stage or be in the spotlight a lot more, he’s going to go back to fumbling and bumbling. He’s been in hiding for weeks and when he does pop out, there’s always a viral clip of his stumbling that follows.

Joe Biden is a gaffe machine.

Tonight: "Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids."

He tried to save it right after, but that's going to get a lot of use. pic.twitter.com/QpDs2iZ9Hb

— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) August 9, 2019

He’ll get plenty of endorsements – as he already has – but it will only take him so far. Independents will probably plug their nose and vote Trump, Democrats who aren’t so enthusiastic about a 78-year-old Biden might stay home, and Bernie’s supporters will probably do a bit of both. That will be enough to get four more years of Trump.