2024 NASCAR Championship Predictions, Odds & Longshots for Phoenix

• The 2024 NASCAR Championship ends the season this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway
• Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron have a chance to win it all. Who will triumph at Phoenix?
• Below, see our 2024 NASCAR Championship predictions, odds and longshot NASCAR picks

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs determine its champion this Sunday, November 10th with the NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway. The green flag drops at 3 PM ET with live coverage on NBC Network.

The 1-mile track has been kind of a controversial end to the playoffs. Last November, Ross Chastain spoiled the party by winning the race as Ryan Blaney held on to win the championship. The last seven races in Phoenix have resulted in no overtime. However, there were 18 lead changes among eight drivers which was a surprise.

The oddsmakers are expecting at least three of the four championship four to contend on Sunday afternoon:

2024 NASCAR Championship Odds

At +175 odds (7/4), the implied probability for favorite Ryan Blaney is 36.36%. William Byron comes in at 20%, with Joey Logano lurking at 18.18%.

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Odds as of Nov. 9 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. 

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Predictions

The spotlight aims on the last two champions here. Last week was a mild surprise as Ryan Blaney cemented his way into the championship with a clutch win at Martinsville. Blaney is experienced with holding off the Hendrick Motorsports Chevy cars. He fended off Kyle Larson and William Byron last year. The good news this year is he only has to worry about Byron. However, guess who else is waiting in the weeds? That would be 2022 champion, Joey Logano.

Part of why Joey Logano is a good third choice is obvious. The No. 22 driver got a free pass into the Round Of 8 and then won on fuel conservation to get into the Championship Four. No matter what one believes about the how, the bottom line is Logano is here now and is a threat to win Phoenix and win another championship.

Ryan Blaney tops Cup practice at Phoenix. Blaney led the way on five-, 10-, and 15-lap averages.

Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, William Byron and Austin Cindric are the top five.

Joey Logano – ninth
Tyler Reddick – 21st#NASCAR

— Dustin Albino (@DustinAlbino) November 8, 2024

This race, gets deadpanned, for being dull. Despite the 18 lead changes, Ross Chastain led 157 of the 312 laps en route to the win last year. The real race was watching Blaney hold off Kyle Larson. Could that happen again? It seems less likely as the Cup champion tends to win the race (see Chase Elliott, Larson, and Logano previously).

Watch out for practice and qualifying differences, that could influence betting shifts a little. It is hard to stray too far away from Blaney. He is quick on this track and could have won the race outright last year honestly.

A Ford weekend sweep remains possible at press time. Expect Blaney and Logano to battle Larson and Byron for the win and championship. Blaney is the safe but best bet here.

• Best Bet to Win: Ryan Blaney (+200 at Caesars)
• Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+260 at DraftKings)

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Longshots

If you are one who likes to take a risk on some longer shots this weekend, there is the sentimental choice of Martin Truex Jr. The No. 19 Toyota races in at +1500 on several sites. Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain have also won here before and they are at +2500 on several sites, including DraftKings and Caesars.

With several quality choices outside the Championship Four, options seem to be increasing. One potential major surprise might be Ty Gibbs. Gibbs has not won a race at the top level but did finish second in Phoenix this March. If he can get close, anything is possible.

Cup practice is complete @phoenixraceway!

P2 – @MartinTruex_Jr
P7 – @TyGibbs
P8 – @dennyhamlin
P15 – @CBellRacing #TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/14vKPsj5GE

— Joe Gibbs Racing (@JoeGibbsRacing) November 8, 2024

Does Toyota fade late? That has been the issue in some Fall races and it was seen last week at Martinsville. Conditions early seem to help drivers like Truex Jr. and Gibbs. The No. 54 driver did win the Xfinity series not too long ago on this very track.

Still, this is one “out there” longshot at +5500.

If the No. 54 Toyota can stay on the track, this could be fun. He’s my NASCAR Cup Series Championship sleeper at 55/1 odds.

NASCAR Longshot Picks:

• Martin Truex Jr. (+1500)
• Kyle Busch (+5500)