Denny Hamlin Still Listed at +1300 Odds to Win Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Championship; Is There Value?

• Kyle Busch leads the Monster Energy Cup Championship standings with 177 points
• Denny Hamlin won the Daytona 500 and and has three top 10s so far, along with two top 5s 
• Martin Truex Jr. is the defending champion

Denny Hamlin has been one of the top drivers on the NASCAR circuit so far this season. He’s won the Daytona 500 and been competitive each week. Does that mean he’s a great value play to win the Monster Energy Cup Championship at the end of the season? Let’s take a closer look.

2019 Monster Energy Cup Championship Odds

Odds taken 03/13/19.

You can see how the odds change for all top contenders throughout the season by viewing our 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Championship Odds Tracker.

The Odds vs Standings Discrepancy

When you take a look at the standings, Hamlin is actually in third place. So far this season, he has one win, a pair of top 5s, and has collected 165 points. That point total, which is just 12 shy of leader Kyle Busch, has already virtually locked him into the playoffs.

Retweet to congratulate @dennyhamlin on winning the 2019! #DAYTONA500@JoeGibbsRacing | @DISupdates pic.twitter.com/hHIASyPUDM

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 18, 2019

While he’s looked good early on, the oddsmakers have a different view of Hamlin. He’s posted on the board at +1300 to win the Monster Energy Cup, which is much further down the list than you might expect. At +1300, that slots him in ninth.

Daytona 500 Win Propping Up Hamlin

One of the first reasons why Hamlin isn’t viewed as such a strong contender to win it all is that his win at the Daytona 500 is propping up his point total. He collected 64 points at that event; he’s picked up 101 in the other three. That’s not bad, but you can see that’s given him a big boost.

Starting Versus Finishing

The main concern with Hamlin is that he’s actually done fairly well in qualifying so far, but he’s squandering some good starting spots away. Hamlin has started third, second, and fourth in the last three races he’s finishing spot has been below those numbers.

.@dennyhamlin and crew are ready to get the party started! ?#DAYTONA500 pic.twitter.com/PHdxDwZZQJ

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 18, 2019

Consider that his average starting position on the season is 4.8 but his average finish position is 6.8. He currently has the best start and second-best finish position of full-time drivers, but you’d like to see him do more with those good starting spots. If his qualifying starts to fall off, it would seem his finishing results will take a big dip too.

Laps Led

We’re obviously nitpicking here as Hamlin has raced fairly well this season, but when you talk about why his odds are lower than the others, another reason is laps lead. Hamlin led 30 laps at the Daytona 500, which he won, but has only led seven laps since.

.@MartinTruex_Jr and @dennyhamlin making laps during second practice @ISMRaceway@BassProShops @FedEx pic.twitter.com/BkgMP9JmFK

— Joe Gibbs Racing (@JoeGibbsRacing) March 9, 2019

To compare, Joey Logano has led at least 11 laps in three of the four races this season. In total, he’s led 119. Kyle Busch has led at least 13 laps in three of the four races this season, compiling 227 in total. Even Kevin Harvick has led 133, which is significantly more than the 37 Hamlin has led.

Pass On Hamlin

There’s no question that Hamlin has been very consistent so far this season, but I would pass on his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Championship odds as of right now. We’re likely to see the type of result that he normally delivers, which is top 5 or 6 overall, but not quite there to win it all.

Barstool Pizza Review – Harry’s Italian with special guest @dennyhamlin pic.twitter.com/K6aJYH04oa

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) February 19, 2019

He’s never done it before and his average season-ending finish over the last six seasons is 6.3. That’s why I’ll pass for now.