F1 DFS Picks, Lineup & Strategy for Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- A discounted captain creates room for multiple podium threats in our F1 DFS lineup
- Massive tire degradation and a near 60% chance of rain could turn Sepang into a strategy lottery
- See my F1 DFS picks and strategy before Sunday’s 3 a.m. ET Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia on Apple TV
Formula 1 promised us a Bahrain Grand Prix this season, and technically, it has delivered.
We’re racing in Malaysia.
Sunday’s event retains the Bahrain name despite taking place roughly 4,000 miles away at Sepang International Circuit. Honestly, that feels like a minor detail compared with everything else we’re dealing with.
Tire degradation has been massive all weekend. Pirelli measured a performance drop between two and three tenths of a second per lap during Friday’s long runs, and there wasn’t much difference between the medium and soft compounds. The hard tire remains mostly unexplored.
If Sunday’s race stays dry, we’re getting at least two stops. Three could easily come into play if the track continues abusing the tires at the same rate.
There’s also nearly a 60% chance of rain around the scheduled start.
If that arrives, we can take three practice sessions, qualifying and several hours of spreadsheet work, throw everything into a dumpster and light it on fire.
The current cars haven’t experienced meaningful wet-weather race running, and Formula 1 hasn’t visited Sepang since 2017. Most of the field has never raced here. There isn’t a reliable baseline for what happens when these cars hit this surface in a Malaysian downpour.
Someone from the midfield will probably end up near the front because of one perfectly timed pit stop. A couple of big names will get trapped on the wrong tire, disappear backward and call the conditions “very tricky” afterward.
We’ll be learning in real time alongside the teams, which is less reassuring when you remember we’re trying to build a DFS lineup before the race starts.
Then we have to write the gambling article.
It’s no wonder I’m bald.
Our lineup embraces the uncertainty with a discounted captain, three midfield drivers positioned near the points and enough exposure to the fastest cars of the weekend to take advantage if everything remains normal.
Whatever that means.
F1 DFS Lineup
DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Bahrain Grand Prix F1 DFS lineup at the best DFS apps before lights out at Sepang.
F1 DFS Strategy for Bahrain Grand Prix
Liam Lawson (Captain) ($8,400) | Starting Position: 11th
Lawson is the reason we can afford everything else.
He qualified 11th after finishing eighth in FP1 and ninth in FP2. The Racing Bulls showed legitimate midfield speed for most of the weekend, and Lawson will begin one position away from the points.
We’re sacrificing the predictable scoring of an expensive captain for a driver who gives us access to Verstappen, Antonelli and Red Bull in the same lineup.
That arrangement becomes considerably more interesting if the weather creates chaos. Lawson is already close enough to the top 10 to benefit from a correct tire call without needing half the field to disappear.
We’ll need him to gain a few positions and remain attached to the car.
Those seem like reasonable requests.
Kimi Antonelli ($13,400) | Starting Position: 3rd
Mercedes spent Friday fighting tire overheating and wondering why its new package wasn’t producing the expected results.
Antonelli apparently slept on it.
He led FP3 by 0.278 seconds over Verstappen, then qualified fourth despite having his first Q2 lap deleted. Hadjar’s engine penalty moves Antonelli to third for the start.
The dry-race concerns haven’t disappeared. Mercedes struggled during the longer runs, and Sepang has shown no interest in preserving tires.
Antonelli still starts on the second row with a realistic path to the podium. If rain arrives, Friday’s dry-weather problems become far less relevant and everyone receives a brand-new set of problems.
At $13,400, we’re paying for the championship leader to figure them out faster than most.
Max Verstappen ($10,600) | Starting Position: 1st
I’m not sure why the polesitter is $2,800 cheaper than Antonelli, but DraftKings has made its decision.
Verstappen led FP1, finished fourth in FP2 without using the soft tire, placed second in FP3 and led all three rounds of qualifying. Red Bull has been fast under every condition we’ve seen so far.
He also won the last Formula 1 race at Sepang in 2017. That was nine years and several generations of cars ago, but knowing which direction the corners go still feels useful.
Verstappen can score through the victory and laps led. Pole also gives him clear visibility if the race starts wet.
He’ll be the first person to discover where the standing water is, but leadership comes with responsibilities…none more important than the one to our wallets.
Pierre Gasly ($6,000) | Starting Position: 9th
Gasly has been a useful midfield option throughout the season, and Sepang has produced another solid weekend.
He finished seventh in FP1, 10th in FP2 and qualified ninth. That gives him a starting position inside the points at a manageable $6,000 salary.
There isn’t much easy place-differential upside available, but Gasly can produce value by holding his position and moving forward through the pit sequence.
The tire degradation should create at least two rounds of strategy if the race stays dry. Rain would give an experienced driver even more opportunities to gain ground while everyone attempts to determine which tire belongs on the car.
Gasly has shown enough pace to stay involved either way. We’ll take the track position and let the weather create the ceiling.
Fernando Alonso ($3,400) | Starting Position: 12th
Alonso costs $3,400 and starts 12th.
We’ve talked ourselves into worse ideas for considerably more money.
Aston Martin hasn’t shown much outright speed, but Alonso has kept the car near the points all weekend. He finished 14th in FP1, 15th in FP2 and 12th in FP3 before qualifying in the same position.
He’s also one of the few drivers who has raced at Sepang. Alonso won here in three different generations of Formula 1 cars, which feels relevant when most of the field is still learning the place.
If the race stays dry, we need him to hang around and steal a couple of positions through the pit sequence.
If it rains, we’re getting one of the most experienced drivers in the field for the price of a decent airport sandwich.
That will do.
Red Bull Racing Constructor ($8,200) | Starting Position: 1st/8th
Stacking Red Bull with Verstappen gives us the polesitter and adds Isack Hadjar, who was fast enough to qualify third.
Hadjar’s engine penalty sends him back to eighth, but the underlying speed is difficult to ignore. He finished third in FP1, second in FP2 and third again in FP3.
The penalty may even help the DFS ceiling. Hadjar has several slower cars between himself and the position his pace suggests he belongs, giving him room to earn points on the way forward.
Of course, rostering a constructor means finding two separate ways to ruin the afternoon instead of one.
We’ll accept the additional risk. Red Bull has been the strongest team throughout the weekend, and $8,200 is a reasonable price for both cars.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
