NASCAR DFS Picks – South Point 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy

• Our South Point 400 NASCAR DFS lineup targets dominator points and place differential
• Two practice crashes send us shopping in the damaged-goods aisle
• See our NASCAR DFS picks, projections and lineup strategy for Sunday’s South Point 400

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Our South Point 400 NASCAR DFS picks finally have a full Saturday program to work with. After two consecutive weekends without practice or qualifying, NASCAR finally completed its entire Saturday program at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

We have lap times. We have long-run data. We have an actual qualifying session. After blaming every difficult decision on the rain for two weeks, we have been forced to accept personal responsibility again.

Denny Hamlin won the pole as Toyota swept the first five starting positions. Ty Gibbs qualified second, followed by Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick. Kyle Larson starts sixth as the first driver attempting to interrupt Toyota’s private gathering.

The South Point 400 begins Sunday at 5:30 p.m. ET on USA Network and HBO Max. Practice told a slightly different story. William Byron ranked first in the SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric, with Larson second. Hamlin placed seventh and Bell finished 11th.

Las Vegas provides 267 laps, leaving enough fastest laps and laps led for multiple dominators. Our lineup attacks that scoring with Hamlin and Bell, then asks Joey Logano to recover from 23rd.

The value tier became much less comfortable when Josh Berry and Noah Gragson both suffered tire-related crashes during practice. Apparently three straight normal paragraphs were too much to request.

The six drivers cost $49,700, leaving $300 unused. DraftKings will not exchange the remainder for casino chips, a buffet voucher or three minutes at an airport slot machine.

We checked.

South Point 400 Lineup

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Compare the best DFS apps before building your South Point 400 lineup. Prefer player pick’em contests? See the PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code offers for another way to play.

South Point 400 Projections

Denny Hamlin ($11,000) | Starting Position: 1st

Hamlin starts from the pole with the strongest recent Las Vegas results in the field.

My model projects him to finish 4.34 and ranks him second in the overall power ratings. Steve’s model is even more optimistic at 3.42.

Across 18 raw comparable-track races, Hamlin has produced a 9.66 average running position, 23.83 fastest laps and 40.94 laps led per race. He has completed 83.2% of his laps inside the top 15.

He also won both of the last two Las Vegas races. Hamlin led 134 laps and recorded 47 fastest laps here in the spring, giving him every route to a massive DraftKings score.

Starting first eliminates place-differential upside, so Hamlin must lead laps and collect fastest laps to justify $11,000. His recent track history and both projections make him our preferred opening dominator.

The Strip brings the lights. We bring the speed.

Two Vegas Aces look to separate themselves from the pack. pic.twitter.com/1NsOFQ6AXV

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 29, 2026

Christopher Bell ($10,700) | Starting Position: 3rd

Bell gives us a second path to the front.

My model projects him to finish 7.17, while Steve places him at 3.99. He starts third, directly behind Hamlin and Gibbs, with immediate access to clean air if the first pit sequence or an early restart rearranges the Toyotas.

Bell finished third here last fall. He returned in the spring and finished fourth after leading 31 laps, recording 27 fastest laps and posting a 2.9 average running position.

Bell ranked 11th in the practice metric, which is less impressive than his qualifying result or recent Las Vegas record. Rostering him with Hamlin also forces the teammates to compete for the same dominator points.

There are 267 laps available, and both have recently controlled meaningful portions of races here. If another driver handles all the expensive work, we will have paid $21,700 for a wonderful view.

Joey Logano ($9,500) | Starting Position: 23rd

Logano supplies the lineup’s clearest place-differential path.

He starts 23rd, while my model projects him at 12.44 and Steve lands at 12.11. A finish near either number produces approximately 11 positions of positive differential.

Logano ranked 15th in the practice metric and has finished sixth and 15th in the last two Las Vegas races. The $9,500 salary is uncomfortable for a driver projected around 12th, but his recovery potential makes the price workable.

One warning when scrolling through the player pool: DraftKings is still using Logano’s 2025 headshot, complete with hair.

The salaries update every week. Those follicles apparently signed a longer contract.

Look carefully for the Bald Bullet hiding beneath last year’s flow.

Josh Berry ($6,900) | Starting Position: 35th

Berry brings enormous place-differential potential and an impressive collection of warning labels.

A tire went down during practice and sent the No. 21 hard into the outside wall. Berry never completed a 10-lap run, will start 35th and must use a backup car. His last-place practice ranking can be placed in a small box marked “probably not helpful.”

The models disagree sharply. My projection has Berry finishing 28.27, while Steve has him at 16.30. Even the conservative number creates six positions of differential. Steve’s projection would make Berry one of the slate’s strongest values.

Berry won here last spring before finishing 26th in the fall and 31st earlier this season. That three-race sample includes a victory, a mediocre afternoon and a disaster. He likes to provide the full menu.

The backup car adds setup and reliability concerns, but Berry can only lose one position from 35th. A finish inside the top 25 would make $6,900 useful. Anything near Steve’s projection could break the slate.

Zane Smith ($6,200) | Starting Position: 30th

Smith suddenly looks like the responsible member of the value tier, which tells us plenty about Saturday.

He starts 30th after ranking 25th in the practice metric. My model projects him at 27.13, while Steve sees more upside at 23.00.

Smith owns a 19.78 average running position across the raw comparable-track sample. His Las Vegas finishes have also improved from 23rd and 24th last year to 14th this spring.

He offers less place-differential ceiling than Berry or Gragson, but he still has his primary car and completed qualifying. Saturday lowered the standard for reassurance.

A finish in the low 20s would be enough at $6,200, and his spring performance shows room for more.

Noah Gragson ($5,400) | Starting Position: 36th

Gragson joined Berry in the Turn 2 wall during the final minutes of practice after another tire problem.

In the final minutes of practice, @NoahGragson spins and backs his car into the wall. pic.twitter.com/3XUIq4uPco

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 3, 2026

He never attempted a qualifying lap and will start 36th. Gragson ranked 26th in the practice metric before the crash, but that information came from a primary car that sustained significant damage.

My model projects him to finish 29.79. Steve has him at 22.81. Those outcomes create between six and 13 positions of positive differential, and starting last removes the possibility of losing any.

Gragson’s last three Las Vegas finishes are 31st, 13th and 30th. The 13th supplies the ceiling. The other two explain the $5,400 salary.

He does not need another top-15 result. A finish in the mid-to-high 20s would justify the savings and help us afford Hamlin, Bell and Logano.

The practice crash raises the risk, while the final starting position absorbs some of it. We need Gragson to move forward and his tires to remain interested in the project.

Berry and Gragson both suffered tire-related crashes, and several other teams reported concerns during practice. Any continuation Sunday would increase the race’s volatility considerably.

Since we are rostering both drivers who damaged their primary cars, we have secured excellent seats for that possibility.

If you are also betting the South Point 400 outright, compare prices across sports betting apps and prediction market apps. Those race-winner bets are separate from this DFS lineup.