NASCAR Predictions, Picks & Odds for Wurth 400 (May 4)

• NASCAR Wurth 400 takes the green flag this Sunday from the Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX
• Carson Hocevar won the pole, but does Kyle Larson find a way to win this race too? 
• Below, see my NASCAR Wurth 400 predictions, picks, and odds

The NASCAR Cup Series races into Texas for the eleventh points event this Sunday, May 4th, at the NASCAR Wurth 400. The green flag drops just after 3:30 pm ET, with live coverage once more on FOX and the Fox Sports App. In-car cams and multi-views are also available streaming on MAX.

Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile track where you do not want to get on the grass. Everything happens a little faster with lap times running in the 27.75 to 28.5 second range. Now, the stage setup is 80-85-102. It is one of those races that can have a lot of cautions early or late. Projections hold potential for 10 or more on Sunday.

The table below lists the Wurth 400 odds (winner, top three, and top five) for the favorites and a couple racers down the board. Under the table, I map out my Wurth 400 predictions and top picks.

NASCAR Wurth 400 Odds

At +300 odds, the implied probability for Kyle Larson to win stands at 25%. William Byron races in at 14.14%, with Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney not too far behind.. Kyle Larson is also the favorite (+300) in the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

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Odds as of May 4 (post-qualifying) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the Wurth 400. 

NASCAR Wurth 400 Start Time & Race Details

NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions

Again, the weather is great with sun and temperatures around 75-80 degrees. Qualifying was surprising only because Carson Hocevar scored his first pole by 0.014 seconds over William Byron and 0.035 seconds over Kyle Larson. Austin Cindric qualified in third just ahead of the two Hendrick cars.

Honestly, there is limited data on the 400-mile version of the race. This used to be raced in the Fall as a 500-mile race. Chase Elliott won in the Spring of 2024 after several overtime attempts. Hendrick also won in 2023 via William Byron. However, that race was held in September.

The track features 20 degree banking on turns 1 and 2 with 24 degree banking on turns 3 and 4. The frontstretch and backstretch have five degrees of banking. It feels like a quad-oval in every way with the grass lurking as a danger.

One hopes for fewer wrecks but the Xfinity race on Saturday provides a gateway. Kyle Larson hopped in the Connor Zilisch car yesterday and blew past everyone on the final restart in overtime.

Again, this race is knee-deep in chaos. If it is anything like last year, we might approach 16 cautions. This favors Hendrick Motorsports and particularly Larson.

• NASCAR Wurth 400 Prediction to Win: Kyle Larson (+300 at DraftKings)

Even More NASCAR Wurth 400 Picks

Yes, I love those race props. Movement was predictable for a fast track like Texas. Expect quite a few starts and stops. Even the 2023 race had 11 cautions. Driver props are not the best this week but Ryan Blaney (-110) over Tyler Reddick is an interesting one. Blaney carries a ton of speed and just needs to avoid trouble. Think like Austin Cindric (-105) over Carson Hocevar.

Among the driver groups for the NASCAR Wurth 400, DraftKings has Ryan Blaney in Group 1 at +260 over William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin. Watch for a few more group props to open up before the race.