NASCAR South Point 400 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Las Vegas (Oct. 4)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Toyota swept qualifying. Practice suggests Sunday could get awkward
- Two models agree on an overlooked matchup farther down the field
- See my top picks and best bets for the South Point 400 on Sunday, Oct 4
Toyota qualified first, second, third, fourth and fifth at Las Vegas.
Okay guys. We get it.
Denny Hamlin won the pole, and the rest of the Toyotas lined up behind him like he was the only one who knew where they were going for dinner. Impressive qualifying session. Thankfully, there are still 267 laps to sort out the bill.
William Byron and Kyle Larson ranked first and second in the SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric. While Toyota was arranging the group photo, Hendrick brought a couple of cars capable of ruining it.
Josh Berry and Noah Gragson also crashed after tire problems during practice. We finally got a weekend without rain, and the tires volunteered to supply the anxiety.
We’ve got two models, actual practice data, and sportsbooks that don’t always agree on what any of it is worth.
Let’s see if we can make that their problem.
South Point 400 Odds
South Point 400 Predictions
Kyle Larson: Top-5 Finish (-120, bet365)
Larson starts sixth, which puts him directly behind Toyota’s entire welcoming committee.
We expect him to introduce himself fairly quickly.
My model projects Larson to finish 3.10 and ranks him first in the overall power ratings. Steve’s model lands at 3.39. That’s strong agreement on a driver finishing around third, and bet365 is offering -120 for him to finish anywhere inside the top five.
The price requires a winning rate of approximately 54.5% to break even. Neither projected finish gives us an exact top-five probability, but both models support the same general expectation: Larson should be heavily involved near the front.
Saturday gave us another reason to like him.
Larson ranked second in the SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric, with teammate Byron first. Hamlin ranked seventh and Christopher Bell 11th. Toyota earned its qualifying sweep, but Hendrick’s practice results suggest the race could look considerably different once the opening run gets going.
Starting sixth also keeps Larson close to the action. He has five cars ahead of him rather than a lengthy afternoon of trying to pass drivers who are perfectly happy occupying three lanes simultaneously.
The top-five wager gives us some breathing room. Someone else can win. Someone else can nail the final pit stop. Larson can finish third or fourth while another team celebrates, and our ticket still cashes.
We’ll congratulate the winner from a financially comfortable distance.
Tire trouble remains a concern after Saturday’s incidents. A strong projection can’t tighten a loose wheel or talk a damaged tire into another 20 laps. Those risks come with the sport, though, and Larson’s combination of practice speed and model agreement makes -120 attractive.
Kyle Larson over Denny Hamlin (+115, Fanatics)
Now for the more difficult request.
Hamlin starts from the pole and has won the last two Las Vegas races. He’s earned every bit of the respect the market is giving him.
We’d simply like to know whether that respect comes with a discount on the other driver.
At Fanatics, it does.
My model projects Larson at 3.10 and Hamlin at 4.34, giving Larson a modest advantage. Steve has them practically sharing a finishing position: Larson at 3.39 and Hamlin at 3.42.
Steve’s numbers are close enough that we should probably check whether they’re riding together.
That leaves us with one model favoring Larson and another seeing almost no difference. Fanatics is offering +115, which carries a break-even probability of approximately 46.5%.
We can respect Hamlin’s chances while liking that price.
Hamlin gets the first opportunity to control the race from the pole. Larson will have to work his way forward, but his second-place practice ranking offers encouragement against Hamlin’s seventh.
There’s plenty of time for adjustments and pit sequences to change the order. Hamlin’s opening advantage matters, especially if he gets away early, but Larson starts close enough to challenge without needing the race to turn upside down.
The two Larson bets are connected, so keep that in mind when sizing them. A poor afternoon could damage both tickets. There’s also a perfectly acceptable outcome where Hamlin wins and Larson finishes second, cashing the top-five while losing the matchup.
Our preferred arrangement, naturally, has Larson ahead of Hamlin and both finishing near the front.
We’ve submitted the request…NASCAR’s customer-service department has yet to respond.
Erik Jones over Riley Herbst (-145, Fanatics)
For our final matchup, we’re heading farther down the leaderboard. The television broadcast might need a minute to find these two on-track.
My model projects Erik Jones to finish 24.52 and Riley Herbst at 30.06. Steve is more optimistic about both, placing Jones at 19.43 and Herbst at 25.75.
That creates a Jones advantage of 5.54 positions in my model and 6.32 in Steve’s.
We have different expectations for their finishing positions, but both systems give Jones a meaningful cushion over Herbst. It’s one of the stronger agreements on the matchup board.
Jones starts 21st and Herbst starts 22nd. They’re essentially beginning from the same neighborhood, so we’re putting more weight on the projected performance gap than their one-position difference on the grid.
Fanatics is asking -145, requiring Jones to win approximately 59.2% of the time to break even.
That’s a reasonable price to consider against this level of agreement. Jones can finish outside the top 20 and still win the matchup. Steve’s projection gives him room to do considerably better.
We’re comfortable backing an ordinary Jones afternoon against the weaker expectations for Herbst. A quiet race with sensible pit stops would suit us beautifully.
There will still be traffic, restarts and opportunities for something inconvenient to happen. Both models nevertheless favor Jones by more than five positions, and the price leaves us interested.
Nobody’s hanging this matchup on a billboard outside the casino. We’ll settle for seeing it on a winning ticket.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
