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NASCAR Verizon 200 Odds, Picks and How to Find Value Betting Top Five Finishes

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Aug 12, 2021 · 7:40 AM PDT

Chase Elliott walking
Chase Elliott walks to his car before a NASCAR Cup Series auto race in Watkins Glen, N.Y., on Sunday, Aug. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)
  • Chase Elliott is a favorite again this week at the Verizon 200 on Sunday, August 15th
  • Can Kyle Larson outsmart Chase Elliott and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers once more?
  • We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race at Indianapolis

NASCAR heads to Indianapolis with another Sunday afternoon road race after the road race at Watkins Glen, where Kyle Larson held off both Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott. Elliott is the +200 favorite in the Verizon 200 from the 2.439-mile course at the famed Brickyard.

Christopher Bell (+1800) could again challenge with another top result. He is a quick study of these tracks and is one of the more underrated road racers out there. He can give the Hendricks Motorsports Racing duo a run for their money if he can get near the front. There is also Denny Hamlin  (+1200) and again Martin Truex Jr. (+600) to consider as well.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the road race at Indianapolis and figure out which drivers are the best bets.

Verizon 200 at The Brickyard Odds

Driver Odds to Win at DraftKings Odds to Finish Top Five Odds to Finish Top Three
Chase Elliott +200 -500 -220
Kyle Larson +350 -280 -105
Martin Truex Jr. +600 -145 +160
Kyle Busch +900 +110 +240
Denny Hamlin +1200 +140 +320
Christopher Bell +1800 +250 +500
Austin Cindric +2000 +300 +600
A.J. Almendinger +2200 +350 +700
William Byron +2500 +400 +850
Joey Logano +2500 +400 +800
Kevin Harvick +2800 +450 +900
Alex Bowman +3000 +475 +950
Ryan Blaney +3500 +550 +1100
Chase Briscoe +3500 +550 +1100
Ross Chastain +4000 +650 +1300
Tyler Reddick +4000 +650 +1300
Brad Keselowski +4000 +650 +1300
Kurt Busch +4000 +650 +1300
Matt DiBenedetto +6000 +900 +2000

Odds as of August 12th

Chase Elliott Slight Favorite to Win at The Brickyard

NASCAR drivers will run on the 2.439-mile Indianapolis Road Circuit when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 1:00 PM EST. Chase Elliott is the best driver on road courses over the past three seasons but Kyle Larson is showing this year that Elliott has competition. This is the debut of the Indianapolis road race for NASCAR but IndyCar did run a road race earlier this season from The Brickyard.

At Watkins Glen, Elliott was sent to the rear of the field for yet another race-inspection violation. His crew chief was suspended for the race. The No. 9 spent the entire race trying to get to the front. By the time, he got close enough it was too late. Kyle Larson held him off by just over two seconds for the victory.

He did have the fastest car last Sunday and has gone 2-for-2 in road track debuts. Elliott’s top-three numbers did slide back to -220.

It may just happen again. This Indianapolis road course is kind of more like a ROVAL (Road-Oval course) crossed with a bit of the COTA (Circuit Of The Americas – Austin). These tracks favor Chase Elliott by a slight margin over Kyle Larson.

Also, Elliott has had an average finish of 6.1 on all road courses since 2018 and that includes a leading seven victories and an unbelievable driver rating of 124.6.

Verizon 200 at The Brickyard Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2020 Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing Joey Logano — Team Penske Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing
2019 Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing
2018 Brad Keselowski — Team Penske Kyle Busch— Joe Gibbs Racing Clint Bowyer / Denny Hamlin (37 laps led)
2017 Kasey Kahne — Hendrick Motorsports Racing Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing
2016 Kyle Busch— Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing

This was formerly the Brickyard 400 raced on the traditional 2.5-mile oval Indianapolis track. Now, it is a 200 mile, 82 lap road course that has parts of a road and oval course (hence ROVAL).

Can Martin Truex Jr. Finish Better Than Third?

Sports bettors have little history to draw on as this race is just 82 laps. Truex Jr. is trending well in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, and the No. 19 has had an average finish of 7.6 on road courses since 2018. His driver rating in that span is a second-best 115.4.

The question becomes can he get or stay past either or both of the Hendricks cars? Last week, he dropped badly during the final 10-15 laps of a long run and finished more than six seconds behind Kyle Larson and four behind Chase Elliott.

Martin Truex Jr. and the racers will have two cracks at the course. Practice is Saturday at 11:05 am ET with qualifying coming Sunday at 9:00 am ET.  Expect Truex Jr., Larson, and Elliott to qualify somewhere in the top five. Truex Jr. may fade again in the race, however.

Can Christopher Bell Surprise Again?

The driver of the No. 20 has been rather good on road courses this season and many forget that he did win the Daytona (road) course which was a bit of a hybrid course in its own right.

Yes, Christopher Bell might have been able to win the race last Sunday at Watkins Glen. He was probably faster than the Martin Truex Jr. car and had the ability to race with the Hendricks Motorsports cars. The problem was that inevitable dust-up with Kyle Larson.

Will Bell have his revenge this week? He may have a shot. This course is suited to Bell. We take the bait and the long shot as a top-three pick. We will hedge him as a winner of the race also. With three races to go to The Chase, expect more unexpected on Sunday.

  • The Picks: Joey Logano to finish Top 5 (+400);  Chase Elliott to win (+200); Christopher Bell to finish Top Three (+500)
  • Top Pick: Kyle Larson to finish Top Three (-105)
  • Longshot: Christopher Bell to win (+1800)
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