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France vs Scotland Six Nations Picks and Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Rugby

Updated Dec 16, 2022 · 2:58 AM PST

France's Brice Dulin scoring a try against Italy
France's Brice Dulin, left, scores his side's fourth try despite the challenge of Italy's Paolo Garbisi during the Six Nations rugby union international between Italy and France at Rome's Olympic stadium, Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)
  • France are 16.5-point home favorites against Scotland in the final match of the Six Nations Rugby tournament on Friday, March 26th
  • If the French end up winning by at least 21 points while gaining a four-try bonus point, they will earn the championship
  • This match was postponed from Round 3 of the tourney after a COVID-19 outbreak in the French side

France were three minutes away from losing the Six Nations rugby championship. Thanks to an incredible rally, if the French can put the boots to Scotland in the final match of the tournament on Friday, March 26th, the title can still be theirs.

Storming in for a pair of tries in the final three minutes, the French ended up defeating Wales 32-30. That outcome prevented the Welsh from locking up the championship. To earn the title over current leaders Wales, France must beat Scotland by at least 21 points while recording a four-try bonus point.

The betting line favors France heavily, but not heavy enough. The French a 16.5-point favorites over the Scots.

Scotland vs France Six Nations Odds

Team Moneyline at DraftKings Spread Total
Scotland +460 +16.5 (-113) OFF
France -715 -16.5 (-113) OFF
Draw +4000

Odds as of Mar. 23rd.

Friday’s scheduled kickoff time at the Stade de France is 4:00 pm ET. NBC Peacock Premium is carrying the broadcast.

This match was originally scheduled for Sunday, February 28th. However, it was postponed following an outbreak of COVID-19 amongst the French squad.

Outlining What France Must Do

Obviously, for starters, France must beat Scotland. While winning the match, France must score four tries to earn the bonus point. Wales lead France 20-15 in the points table, so the French require all five available points that come via a bonus-point triumph.

Next, the French must succeed via a margin of no less than 21 points. That’s because Wales currently hold a 20-point edge over France in point differential. It’s the first tiebreaker to determine the Six Nations title.

Should France get the bonus point and win by exactly a 20-point margin, the French must score a minimum of six tries.

Total tries scored is the second tiebreaker. Wales currently lead France 20-15 in the try-scoring department.

Fit to Be Tied

There is also a possibility that Wales and France could end up sharing the Six Nations crown. If the French finish up beating Scotland by exactly 20 points while scoring exactly five tries, the two countries would be level on points, point differential and tries scored.

The last time there was a shared title was in 1988 when Wales and France deadlocked at the top of the table.

Injury Report

French fly-half Matthew Jalibert is out for Friday’s match. He suffered a head injury in the win over Wales.

Romain Ntamack will replace Jalibert against Scotland. He came on as Jalibert’s substitute in the match against Wales. Ntamack was France’s first choice at stand-off in 2020.

Louis Carbonel is an addition to the squad to serve as cover for Ntamack.

No French Cooking for Scotland

It’s been so long since Scotland won a match in France, the tourney was still known as the Five Nations. The Scots took a 36-22 decision at the Stade de France on April 10th, 1999.

Since that result, Scotland have lost 12 matches in a row away to France.  During those 12 straight victories over the Scottish, France’s average margin of victory is 11.75 points per game.

Only twice during those dozen triumphs have the French managed to garner the 21-point margin they’ll be requiring on Friday.

Scotland is proving a tough out in this tourney. The Scots beat Italy and England, lost by one point to Wales and by three to Ireland.

Pick: Scotland +16.5 (-113)

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