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Italy vs Wales Six Nations Picks and Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Rugby

Mar 5, 2021 · 9:04 AM PST

The Wales team celebrate after defeating England in the 2021 Six Nations Tournament
The Wales team celebrate after defeating England and winning the Triple Crown following the Six Nations rugby union match between Wales and England at the Millennium stadium in Cardiff, Wales, Saturday, Feb. 27, 2021. Wales win the triple crown for defeating Ireland, Scotland and England. Wales defeated England 40-24. (David Davies/Pool Via AP)
  • Wales are 26.5-point favorites over Italy in their Saturday, March 13th, Six Nations rugby match
  • The Welsh are 3-0 and at the top of the Six Nations table
  • Italy is 0-3. The Italians are 2-26-1 all-time against Wales

After three impressive wins in Six Nations competition, Wales gets the so-called free spot on the calendar, an away match facing winless Italy.

Already, the Welsh side has dispatched Ireland, Scotland, and England to capture the Triple Crown and rise to the top of the Six Nations table at 3-0. Italy has dropped matches to France, England, and Ireland and sits bottom of the table at 0-3.

Even on the road, Wales is opening as 26.5-point favorites to be the next team to dismantle the Italians.

Ireland vs Italy Six Nations Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Wales -10000 -26.5 (-113) OFF
Italy +1600 +26.5 (-113) OFF
Draw +7000

Odds as of Mar. 4th at DraftKings.

Their Saturday, March 13th match is slated for a 9:15am EST kickoff at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. NBC Peacock Premium will broadcast all of the action.

Biggar Injured Against England

Subbed out after 46 minutes as Wales defeated England 40-24, it’s seen been revealed that Welsh fly-half Dan Biggar suffered a leg injury in the victory. He’s unlikely to play this weekend for his club Northampton and his status for the Italy match is currently uncertain.

Wales also lost scrum-half Kieran Hardy for the remainder of the tournament. He suffered a hamstring injury in the England match.

Fortunately for Wales, the side is deep at both the 9 and 10 position. Calum Sheedy replaced Biggar against England and hit on three penalties, as well as converting both tries scored while he was on the pitch.

Hardy was the third scrum-half to start for Wales in the Six Nations. Tomos Williams got the nod against Ireland, while Gareth Davies donned the #9 shirt when facing Scotland.  Williams is back in training after also suffering a hamstring injury. Lloyd Williams, a fourth scrum-half, is also part of the Welsh squad.

Italy’s Slump Continues

Walloped 48-10 on February 27th by Ireland, Italy suffered its 30th consecutive Six Nations setback. The last win by the Italians was a 22-19 verdict over Scotland in 2015.

That loss was also the fourth time in five Six Nations matches that the Italians have surrendered at least 40 points. They show a -101 point differential through three matches this year.

They’ve surrendered 139 points and  19 tries during the tournament. Three other Irish tries scored during the match against Italy were disallowed.

For the second straight match, Italy grabbed the lead. Paolo Garbisi booted a fourth-minute penalty to open the scoring against Ireland, but it was all downhill after that. Itay scrum-half Stephen Varney missed the match due to a finger injury.


Wales have already beaten more countries in the Six Nations than the national side did in all of last year. Italy were one of two sides to lose a match to Wales in 2020. The other nation to fall to the Welsh was Georgia.

The Welsh are 26-2-1 all-time against Italy. The Italians last posted a win over Wales via a 23-20 victory in 2007.

Italy surrendered 41 points in the loss to England. Wales scored 40 points in its victory over England.

Pick: Wales -26.5 (-113)

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