2018 FIFA World Cup Finals: France vs Croatia Full Betting Preview

• France and Croatia square off in the World Cup Final Sunday at 11:00 a.m. EST 
• Will Croatia get revenge for a Semi-Finals loss to France 20 years ago?
• Who’s in line to win the Golden Ball?

The 2018 FIFA World Cup Finals sees Croatia take on France this Sunday (July 15th) at 11am EST. Here’s a look at how the two teams arrived here.

France Semi-Finals Recap

In a battle of geographical neighbors, France emerged with a 1-0 win over Belgium in the Semi-Finals. France advances to the World Cup Final for the third time in their history, being one of only six countries to do so. Each of those appearances have come since 1998, making them the only team to play in the finals three of the past six tournaments.

Belgium had won all of their games entering the match and came out strong. They had most of the early possession and shots in the opening 20 minutes, but could not break through. Belgium reverted back to the 4-2-3-1 formation they had used for most of the tournament and were forced to make a change defensively due to suspension.

With Thomas Meunier missing out due to yellow card accumulation, midfielder Nacer Chadli was inserted at full-back. A hero in the Japan game, Chadli (and all of Belgium) struggled to complete almost any crosses or create many serious chances against France.

After weathering that initial Belgian storm, France settled in and found the game’s only goal at 51′. Antoine Greizmann’s corner was headed by defender Samuel Umtiti into the back of the net to give the French the lead. Once ahead, France was able to sit back and defend, only holding 36% of possession, yet still outshooting Belgium in shots and shots on target.

Croatia Semi-Finals Recap

England’s calling card has been set pieces this World Cup and and it took no longer then five minutes of their match against Croatia for that trend to continue. Kieran Trippier lined up for a free kick after a Croatia foul and stepped up to strike past Croatian keeper Danijel Subašić.

It was his first international goal and England’s ninth set piece goal out of their 11 total goals. England came close to going up 2-0 at the 30′ mark but Harry Kane was denied at point blank range.

Despite their previous two matches going all the way to penalties, Croatia found the energy to get back in the game once the second half got underway. Ivan Perišić poked in a cross at 68′ to pull the Croats even. At 1-1 the game needed extra time to be decided and each team would come inches away from scoring a second in the first half but failed to find the go ahead goal.

At the start of the second half of extra time, Mario Mandžukić would not be denied again after missing a chance minutes earlier. After Perišić flicked on a header in the box, Mandžukić would beat the English defenders to the ball. From there he slid it past Jordan Pickford in the 108th minute.

⚽ When you score an extra-time winner to take your country into the #WorldCupFinal…#FlamingPride #Croatia #WorldCup #CROENG #Vatreni? pic.twitter.com/1CTVCSaqQa

— HNS | CFF (@HNS_CFF) July 12, 2018

England had one final chance at the death in the 124th minute. However, their free kick into the box from Marcus Rashford was cleared away by Croatia.

Croatia reaches the final for the first time in their history and is now the 13th nation to do so.

Facts and Figures

A huge accomplishment for any country to make the final, but for Croatia, a nation of roughly four million people, it’s even more so. Think of it this way: if Croatia were a city, it would be only the 15th largest metro area in the United States. At 4.2 million people, it is smaller than Boston, Phoenix, San Fran and Detroit.

Historical goal totals in finals matches could bring the Under bet into play. While in the early years of the World Cup, high-scoring matches were all the rage, scoring has really come to standstill since 1990.

The first 13 World Cups saw both teams scoring in every match. However, starting in 1990, both teams have scored only once in seven World Cups. The same can be said for seeing more than two goals in a finals match. That result has only recently happened once, back in 1998.

World Cup Goal Totals

Who could have that one moment of brilliance to lead their team to victory? Croatia’s Ivan Perišić and France’s Antoine Griezmann are fourth and fifth overall in total shots with 20 and 19.

Head-to-head

These nations have little recent history between them, having last played to a nil-nil draw during a friendly back in 2011. Overall, France is undefeated against Croatia with a 3-2-0 record. However, 20 years ago (when they last met in a World Cup match) France beat Croatia 2-1 in the Semi-Finals on their way to a World Cup championship win over Brazil.

World Cup Stats

What are the Odds for the Golden Ball?

The Golden Boot race may be down to either Harry Kane or Romelu Lukaku, and will be decided during Saturday’s Third Place Match, but the Golden Ball (MVP) is also still up for grabs.

There are two clear favorites below, and if you believe Croatia have a chance to become first-time champions, Luka Modrić is your pick. However, if you’re feeling a win by Les Bleus, at +800 Antoine Griezmann presents a ton of value. He has five points in the tournament, with three goals and two assists, compared to Kylian Mbappe’s three goals. He’ll also be involved in taking free kicks, corners, and penalties during the final.

All things being even, with a trophy sponsored by Adidas, could a player (Mbappe) sponsored by their biggest rival in Nike win the award? Possibly, but I’ll tip the more neutral Puma boot-wearing Griezmann.

Golden Ball odds

France vs Croatia Betting Advice

Picks with odds

• France ML -110
  
• Under 2.5 goals -220
  
• First Half Draw -105

Two years ago France had an equally talented squad at the Euros and many expected them to fulfill their potential. While they made it to the finals, they came up just short, losing in extra time to Portugal. Sometimes you need to get knocked down before you can reach your goal. The French can draw on that experience of being in a recent major final and failing to produce. This time they will win the ultimate prize.

Croatia have become only the second team to play in three straight extra time games at the same World Cup. They are also the first team to come from behind and move on in three Knockout games at the same World Cup.

Impressive as that is, that equates to them having played more than an entire extra game than France over the past two weeks. Two of these games were decided by penalties, and they will also have one less day of rest. Croatia last played on Wednesday, compared to France having played Belguim on Tuesday.

Say what you want about the magnitude of the match giving them all the energy they’ll need. Surely those extra minutes will take some toll. Croatian midfielder and captain Modrić is 32 years old and has covered the most distance in the tournament at a combined 63 kms.

Hands up if you can make history in the #WorldCupFinal ?

We look at Didier Deschamps’ bid to become the third man to win the #WorldCup as player and coach ???

ℹ️? https://t.co/czhbzlAR5G pic.twitter.com/zx7vXUoWzB

— FIFA World Cup ? (@FIFAWorldCup) July 12, 2018

Let’s also compare opposition. Much has been made about the perceived discrepancies in the strength on either side of the bracket. In the Knockout Rounds, France progressed through Lionel Messi and Argentina, a defensively resolute Uruguay, and the Golden Generation of Belgian stars. Through all that they kept clean sheets in two of those matches, and had two more during the Group Stage.

Compare that to Croatia needing penalties to get past Denmark and Russia. Plus needing a 68′ minute goal to push their Semi-Finals match against England to Extra Time—a team which had little expectations on them to start the tournament.

France vs Croatia Odds

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