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US Open Cup Predictions for Semifinals – FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami & Houston vs Real Salt Lake

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Aug 23, 2023 · 6:23 AM PDT

Inter Miami CF celebrate after winning the Leagues Cup against Nashville SC
Aug 19, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Inter Miami CF celebrate after winning the Leagues Cup against Nashville SC at GEODIS Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
  • The US Open Cup has reached the semifinals with FC Cincinnati hosting Inter Miami and Houston Dynamo hosting Real Salt Lake
  • Can Lionel Messi and Inter Miami reach another final after winning Leagues Cup?
  • Read on for our US Open Cup predictions for each match here

After winning their first trophy at the Leagues Cup, Inter Miami and Lionel Messi are back on the field with a chance to reach another final as they face Supporters’ Shield-leading FC Cincinnati in the US Open Cup Semifinals. On the other side of the bracket, Houston meets Real Salt Lake. Read on for the odds and our top US Open Cup predictions here.

 FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Odds

Matchup Moneyline To Advance
Cincinnati +230 +125
Inter Miami +105 -175
Draw +275 N/A

At US Open Cup odds of +105, Inter Miami have an implied probability of 48.78 to win in regulation. The total on this game of 2.5 is heavily juiced to the Over at -200.

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Wednesday’s first US Open Cup Semifinals kicks off at 7:00 pm EST at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati.


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FC Cincinnati Dominant at TQL Stadium

At look at the standings and this looks like a huge mismatch. Cincinnati are not only first in the Eastern Conference with 51 points, but also first overall in the Supporters’ Shield standings.

And then there’s Inter Miami, who sits bottom of the conference and the overall MLS standings with 18 points.

Cincinnati earned a 1-0 home win in league play this season back in April. Last season Cincinnati won 3-1 at home and the teams drew 4-4 at DRV PNK in Miami.

Cincinnati beat SKC and Chivas Guadalajara in the Leagues Cup Group Stage before bowing out to Nashville in the round of 32. They came out of the Leagues Cup break with a 3-0 loss in Columbus in the Hell Is Real rivalry. That was just their third loss in MLS all season and only the second time in 29 games across all competitions they had failed to score.

To reach the USOC Semifinals Cincy have had wins over Louisville City (USL) 1-0, New York City 1-0, New York Red Bulls in penalties after a 1-1 draw and the Pittsburgh Riverhounds (USL) 3-1.

Messi and Miami Search for More Silverware

Fresh off a Leagues Cup trophy, Inter Miami returns to action. Pre-Leagues Cup they had been bad. Real bad. Like worst in the entire league bad. That unsurprisingly includes their road form where they are 1-1-9 and have been outscored 22-7.

Entering the Leagues Cup, the Herons had actually failed to win in 11 MLS games. Their only two wins since mid-May had come in the US Open Cup. So that’s good news. Even before Messi and friends came to South Beach, the Herons had at least been performing in this tournament.

They had beaten Miami FC (USL) in penalties after drawing 2-2, beat Charleston Battery (USL) 1-0, Nashville SC 2-1 and Birmingham Legion (1-0) to reach the semis. Now three of those four were second division teams but considering their MLS form, wins are wins.

FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Head-to-Head Stats

15-6-3 (1st East) Record (Placing) 5-3-14 (15th East)
39 Goals For 22
28 Goals Against 36
47.8% Average Possession 53.3%
Luciano Acosta (12) Top Scorer Josef Martinez (6)

*MLS Stats

FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Prediction

We can talk all about how bad Miami “has” been. But the truth is there is a “Pre-Messi” and “Post-Messi” version of the Herons. So much of the early year statistics are hard to focus on right now. This version of Miami are winners.

They just won seven straight games and outscored their opponents 22-8. They scored multiple goals in six of those seven games all the way up to the final and Messi scored in each of those games for ten goals.

However, they did concede a goal in all three road games during Leagues Cup. Four away to Dallas and one each to Philadelphia and Nashville.

And this Cincinnati team still hasn’t lost at home in MLS this season at 11-1-0, while outscoring opponents 24-8. Their loss in penalties to Nashville in the Leagues Cup was their first home loss in all comps after being undefeated in 16 games and just their second in 28. They’ve also scored at home at TQL Stadium in 34 straight games.

Miami could be tired off their Leagues Cup win and celebrations. But they’ll also have one day of extra rest having played Saturday, compared to Cincinnati who played Sunday.

Assuming Messi and co. play and head coach Tata Martino says he will, it’s hard to bet against the Herons. Miami to advance at -175 is still pretty juiced. But Miami to qualify and both teams to score at +130 would offer some better value. Cincinnati has been so dominant at home though, a bet on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals may be the safest bet for our Cincinnati vs Miami prediction.

  • Cincinnati vs Miami Picks: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-138)

 Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake Odds

Matchup Moneyline To Advance
Houston +115 -163
Real Salt Lake +220 +120
Draw +240 N/A

Oddsmakers are favoring the Dynamo to win at home in regulation at +110 odds for an implied probability of 46.51 to defeat Real Salt Lake. Three or more goals in the match is favored at odds of -134 for Over 2.5.

The second US Open Cup Semifinal kicks off at 9:00 pm EST at Houston’s PNC Stadium. See our US Open Cup predictions for that match here.

Houston Off 5-0 Weekend Win

Sixth in the West Houston (32 points), hosts third in the conference Real Salt Lake (37 points) in the second semi.

In the previous meeting this season in MLS in May, the teams drew 0-0 in Houston. Last season RSL won 3-0 at home and there was a 0-0 draw in Houston.

The Dynamo had an average showing in Leagues Cup. They lost to and beat Orlando and Santos Laguna respectively in the group stage. Then beat Pachuca in the round of 32 and went out versus Charlotte in the round of 16.

They emerged from the break to MLS play this past weekend where they routed the Portland Timbers 5-0. They were up 4-0 at half and had five different players get on the scoresheet.

In the US Open Cup Houston beat the Tampa Bay Rowdies of the USL 1-0, before wins over three straight MLS teams; SKC (1-0), Minnesota (4-0) and Chicago (4-1).

Real Salt Lake One of Hottest MLS Teams

Real Salt Lake started Leagues Cup off with an impressive 3-0 win over Seattle. Then they looked equally unimpressive in losing 3-0 to Monterrey. They rebounded in the round of 32 beating Leon 3-1, before getting smacked 4-0 by LAFC in the round of 16.

They were off this weekend so will enter this game rested having not played since August 8. That should give them time to regroup and look more like the team that entered Leagues Cup as the hottest in MLS being undefeated in nine games and having just two losses across all comps in 21.

In the USOC, they beat Las Vegas of the USL 3-1 in extra-time and then had wins over Portland (4-3), Colorado (1-0) and the LA Galaxy (3-2).

Houston vs Real Salt Lake Head-to-Head Stats

9-5-10 (6th West) Record 10-7-7 (3rd West)
31 Goals For 35
31 Goals Against 34
50.7% Average Possession 49.2%
Amine Bassi (9) Top Scorer Jefferson Savarino (6)

*MLS Stats

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

Houston are great at home. They’re 8-2-2 and have outscored opponents 24-8 in MLS play.

Meanwhile, RSL have the most road points of any team in MLS, tied alongside Orlando wth 21.

The Dynamo made quick work of Portland, but their Leagues Cup matches were all tight. Three ended in a draws. The fourth was 1-0 until the 80′ and 81′ minutes of the game versus Charlotte.

RSL may have been shut out in two of their past three but those came to Monterrey and LAFC. Otherwise, they have scored multiple goals in 5/7 and also in 11/15.

You could look at both teams to score in your US Open Cup predictions or bet on a close match that may need extra-time or penalties.

  • Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake Picks: Draw (+240)

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