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Bournemouth vs Brentford Odds & Prediction – EFL Promotional Playoffs Semifinals Leg 1

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

May 16, 2021 · 12:28 PM PDT

Mads Bech Sorensen, Brentford
Brentford's Mads Bech Sorensen celebrates with his teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English FA Cup fourth round soccer match between Brentford FC and Leicester City at Brentford Community stadium in London, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
  • Bournemouth host Brentford in the first leg of their Promotional Playoff semifinal on Monday, May 17th at 1:00 pm ET
  • Brentford finished the season on 87 points in third place in the Championship granting them the easiest semifinal, matched up against sixth place Bournemouth
  • See the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

With one spot in next year’s Premier League remaining, Brentford, Swansea, Barnsley and Bournemouth will fight it out in the Promotional Playoffs. The semifinals, which consist of two legs, home and away, start on Monday as Bournemouth hosts third place Brentford at Dean Court. The Bees did the double over Bournemouth this season, so it will be interesting to see how the Cherries cope the third time around.

In terms of rest, these teams have had around nine days to recover from their last match in the Championship. Regardless of the break, Brentford ended their season on much better terms than their counterparts. Brentford won their last four matches against Bournemouth, Rotherham, Watford and  Bristol City, while only conceding once in the process.

Bournemouth vs Brentford Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline at DraftKings Total
Bournemouth vs Brentford BOU +0.5 (-210) | BRE -0.5 (+165) BOU +170 | BRE +163 | DRAW +220 Ov 2.5 (+110) | Un 2.5 (-137)

Odds as of May 16

Their match against the Cherries was tightly contested as a lone Bryan Mbuemo goal in the 77th minute gave the three points to Brentford. Additionally, in their last two games, they managed to score five goals with star striker Ivan Toney providing two. Meanwhile, Bournemouth ended their season with three consecutive defeats and no goals scored. Surely if they keep going at that rate, Brentford will have the advantage, even away from home.

Is it Finally Time for Brentford’s Promotion?

Last year, it looked as thought Brentford would make their way back to the Premier League for the first time since 1947. However, two Fulham goals scored by Joe Bryan in the 105th and 117th minute took their dreams away. After fighting for a third place finish in the Championship this season, it looks like it finally could be their moment.

Bournemouth vs Brentford Statistics


1.59 Goals per game 1.72
11.9 Shots per game 13.4
56.0% Possession % 54.2%
78.6% Passing % 78.8%

Brentford’s main strength is most definitely their high-powered offense. The Bee’s attack scored the most goals in the Championship by a margin of four, with most of the credit going to Ivan Toney. The 25 year-old forward has been nothing short of sensational this season piling on 31 goals and 10 assists in just 45 appearances.

The pairing of Sergi Canos and Mbuemo sit on either side of him and have also added a combined 35 goal contributions this year. Steve Cook and Cameron Carter-Vickers will most likely be the center back duo for Bournemouth and will definitely have their hands full for the full ninety minutes. Regardless of who they start in defense, the challenge of marking this front three is nearly impossible.

Is Bournemouth’s Recent Form a Serious Concern?

Furthermore, with so much to play for at the end of the season, Bournemouth looked like they had no ambition in their last three matches. The Cherries did not just lose three matches, but they failed to score in all three. This is more seriously concerning for their two goal scorers, Arnaut Danjuma-Groen and Dominic Solanke who have both chipped in 15 times this year. With the expectation Brentford will score at some point, Bournemouth’s strikers need to wake up immediately.

It is honestly strange to see Bournemouth so off course, mainly because they strung together six wins in a row before this recent downturn. The Cherries even managed victory against the league champions Norwich City by a score of 3-1. It is obvious Bournemouth has the talent to compete with the best of the best on their day. However, given their recent form how will they manage with a team that finished ten points above them in the table?

Bournemouth vs Brentford Best Bet

Overall, the best bet in this match is the Brentford moneyline with odds of +163. These odds have incredible value, and given Bournemouth’s lack of goal scoring recently, make the most sense. Some people say it is hard to beat a team three times in a season, and that does often ring true.

But, Brentford still have a sour taste in their mouth from last season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Special players make a huge impact in winning these types of ties. Frankly Bournemouth do not have a player that is as special as Ivan Toney is for Brentford.

Pick: Brentford ML (+163)

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