Canada vs Morocco Odds – Who’s Favored in Round of 16?

• Canada will face Morocco in the round of 16 after a historic win over South Africa
• The Atlas Lions reached the knockout stage in back-to-back World Cups and beat Canada in 2022
• See the Canada vs Morocco odds, including the moneyline, total, and both teams to score

Canada finally has its round of 16 opponent, and it’s a familiar one. Morocco beat the Netherlands on penalties Monday night to set up a rematch with the Canucks, who advanced a day earlier with a historic 1-0 win over South Africa.

The two meet at NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday, July 4, at 1:00 pm ET. It’s the same Morocco side that knocked Canada out of the 2022 World Cup.

The Canada vs Morocco odds favor the Atlas Lions, and the early money has only pushed them further that way.

Canada vs Morocco Odds

Money has come in on Morocco since the line opened. The Atlas Lions have shifted to -110 to win in regulation, with Canada drifting to a +325 underdog and the 90-minute draw at +240.

Since a knockout game can’t end in a draw, the two-way odds to advance are the number that matters. Morocco is -240 to advance to the quarterfinals (70.6% implied), with Canada at +165 (37.7%). Respectable for a team ranked 24 spots back.

The total sits at 2.5 goals with the under juiced to -150, fitting for a Morocco team that conceded just three times in the group stage and a Canada side that has averaged a single goal over its last two games. Over 2.5 pays +130.

Both teams to score leans “No” at -135, with “Yes” at +105, another nod to two stingy defenses meeting in a low-event knockout tie.

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Morocco Builds on 2022 Breakthrough

Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil on goal difference, with both sides tied on seven points. The Atlas Lions went unbeaten, drawing Brazil (1-1) before beating Scotland (1-0) and Haiti (4-2).

PSV Eindhoven midfielder Ismael Saibari has been the story. He scored in all three group games to become the first Moroccan ever to net three goals in a single World Cup, then buried the decisive penalty to sink the Dutch in Monday’s shootout.

That marathon could matter for Canada. Morocco went the full 120 minutes plus penalties to outlast the Netherlands in Monterrey, while the Canucks closed out their round of 32 win in 90 minutes and will arrive in Houston with the fresher legs.

At prediction site Kalshi, Morocco is trading at 71¢ to get past Canada and reach the quarterfinals, the biggest jump of any team on the board after the shootout win (up 42 cents). Only Argentina (83¢) and France (81¢) are priced higher to advance this round.

Prediction Markets

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Kalshi

Argentina

83%

France

81%

Morocco

71%

Brazil

67%

England

60%

Spain

58%

Colombia

50%

USA

49%

Belgium

33%

Portugal

31%

Predict

Canada, ranked 30th in the world, sits at 29¢ to pull the upset, among the lowest prices of any team still standing.

Canada’s Historic Run Continues

Appearing in just their third World Cup ever (1986, 2022, 2026), Canada had never won a tournament match before this summer. They flipped that script entirely, surviving a road-warrior path after losing the right to host their knockout games when Switzerland beat them in the group finale.

The win over South Africa was built on grit. Per Fotmob, the Canadians were out-possessed 58-42 but generated the better looks, finishing with a 1.32-0.13 edge in expected goals before Eustáquio’s late dagger.

Star defender Alphonso Davies also returned to the pitch for his first World Cup action of the tournament, entering in the 75th minute after a hamstring injury kept him out of group play. His availability for July 4 will be one of the biggest storylines of the week.

H2H History: CAN vs MAR

Morocco has had Canada’s number historically. The Atlas Lions hold a 3-1-0 edge in the all-time series, with Canada’s lone result a 1-1 friendly draw back in 1994.

The meeting that stings most came at the 2022 World Cup, when Morocco beat Canada 2-1 in the group stage to help send the Canucks home without a point that tournament.

Canada will be out for revenge. This time, with a knockout win already in their pocket, they arrive with belief they didn’t have four years ago.

Bookmark SBD’s World Cup game odds to see how the Canada vs Morocco lines shift before kickoff on Saturday, July 4.