Champions League Group D Odds & Betting Preview: Liverpool Odds-On -250 Favorites
- The Champions League group stage gets underway this week
- Group D features Liverpool, Atalanta, Ajax and FC Midtjylland
- Read below to see where we think the betting value lies
An already crowded European soccer schedule is about to get busier for the elite teams as the 2020-21 Champions League kicks off. Group D sees Premier League champions Liverpool leading the way ahead of Atalanta, Ajax and FC Midtjylland.
Liverpool are the heavy favorites to win the group at -250. Atalanta, who suffered heartbreak in the quarterfinals of last season’s Champions League, are favored to progress, and are a clear second in the betting ahead of Eredivisie champions Ajax.
The table below has the latest Champions League Group D odds for progression and to win the group.
Champions League Group D Odds
| Team | Top 2 Odds | Odds To Win |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -2500 | -250 |
| Atalanta | -278 | +275 |
| Ajax | +110 | +750 |
| FC Midtjylland | +1700 | +8000 |
Odds taken from DraftKings on October 18.
Midtjylland Outclassed
It’s a first Champions League group stage appearance for FC Midtjylland after negotiating three playoff rounds. They might count themselves a bit unlucky to be drawn into this group. The analytics-led Danish club have pedigree in European competition, beating Manchester United in the first leg of a Europa League tie back in 2015-16, but this is the first time they have made it through the qualification phase since then.
They are going to be over-matched in this group. While they could make it difficult for their superior opponents on occasion, perhaps snatching a point or two, they are not in contention to qualify. It’s very unlikely they can take third.
Rebuilding Ajax
The team that made the last four in 2018-19 has been dismantled. Ajax were a disappointment on the European stage last season, falling short in a tough group and getting knocked out in the last 32 of the Europa League by Getafe. They pipped AZ Alkmaar to the Eredivisie crown, but they have lost Hakim Ziyech and Donny van de Beek since then.
A surprise loss to FC Groningen last time out will not give bettors much confidence in Ajax’s ability to progress. A lot of talented players have left the club over the last few windows – there’s no question they are in a period of rebuilding.
Our Boss. ♥️ https://t.co/fNmqLc2NCk
— AFC Ajax (@AFCAjax) October 18, 2020
Summer signing Antony is an exciting addition, however, and they will, as always, be good to watch. Their attack can still do damage, particularly against the vulnerable defenses of Liverpool and Atalanta. It would be a mistake to write them off.
Flawed Favorites
Atalanta are box office. Their football is thrilling, and their matches are goal-packed. They are legitimate Serie A challengers and look a good outside bet at +900 to make the last four of the Champions League.
Where the attack powered them through from an improbable position in the group stage last year, the defense can be their undoing. They were 4-0 down to Napoli at halftime in their last match, and every team will fancy their chances of scoring a couple of goals.
Napoli scored 4⃣ first-half goals against Atalanta today 😮#UEL pic.twitter.com/sCAyfoVXwF
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) October 17, 2020
They aren’t a team that will dominate a game from start to finish against any opponent. Beating Liverpool comfortably is possible, as is slipping up to Midtjylland. Blips like the Napoli match are likely throughout the season, but it would be foolish to overlook their three league matches before that (they won all of three, scoring 13 goals in the process).
It will be interesting to see how Gian Piero Gasperini rotates his squad through the group stage – will he prioritize a Serie A push?
Unsettled Liverpool
After the near-perfection of 2019-20, Liverpool’s 2020-21 has been imperfect. Injuries and COVID-19 cases have caused Jurgen Klopp problems. They have 10 points from five Premier League matches, but a 7-2 defeat to Aston Villa set the alarm bells ringing and a 2-2 draw with Everton in the Merseyside derby was a disappointment.
Liverpool are not the unstoppable juggernaut they were in each of the last two seasons. They deserve their status as favorites, but unusual things are going to happen in this peculiar 2020-21 season. Liverpool will be tested in this group – their squad depth will be challenge in a way it hasn’t been in recent years.
Best bets
Ajax at +110 to finish in the top two is worth a punt. There are going to be open games in this group. Atalanta, Liverpool and Ajax will all play high up the pitch, and they possess the attacking firepower to do damage. Defensive errors will be punished, and each team will get chances.
Hot finishing from Ajax could upset the odds. The same, of course, goes for Atalanta, who have shown they can matchup with Europe’s best sides.
There’s no value in backing Liverpool at those prices, particularly with how they have started the season and with uncertainty over the fitness of Virgil van Dijk.
Picks: Ajax to finish top 2 (+110), Atalanta to win the group (+275)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
