Champions League Odds Favor Winner Coming from Premier League at +140 Odds
- With the Champions League getting underway on Tuesday, odds favor the winner to come from the Premier League
- This market provides a challenge for bettors, comparing the value of club and nation betting
- Does England deserve to be favorite? See odds on all Nationalities to win the UCL below
There are plenty of options when it comes to Champions League futures betting. One such avenue for bettors to consider is the nationality of winner market, which poses questions beyond the strength of an individual team. This is a means of backing all Premier League clubs or getting behind every Serie A side.
The added complexity makes it a fascinating market. English clubs are favored at +140 to be crowned European champions, ahead of German and Spanish sides, who both sit at +300. Italian and French clubs are further out, with only one sure-fire contender in either league.
The table below has the latest nationality of Champions League winner odds ahead of the first group stage matches on October 20th.
Nationality of Champions League Winner Odds
| Nationality | Odds |
|---|---|
| English | +140 |
| German | +300 |
| Spanish | +300 |
| Italian | +700 |
| French | +800 |
| Dutch | +10000 |
| Russian | +10000 |
| Any Other Nationality | +4000 |
Odds taken from DraftKings on October 19th
Nationality vs Single Team
Betting on this market is partly about weighing up the value in picking a nation over a more commonplace single-team bet. The price, obviously, is shorter for a German winner than if you were to just back Bayern (+400). The same goes for every nation to varying degrees.
In the case of the Bundesliga, the odds difference is for Dortmund, Leipzig and Borussia Monchengladbach.
Dortmund are fringe contenders. Leipzig, despite a semi-final appearance in 2019-20, are +6000 to win the competition. They face a tough task to even get out of their group, having been drawn with Manchester United and PSG. Gladbach are in a similar predicament with Real Madrid, Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk – this is reflected in their odds of +12500.
Leipzig and Gladbach are non-factors here. Dortmund are in the mix at +3000, and have the talent to threaten any side in Europe.
Using the Bundesliga as an example, picking between betting on the entire league or a single team is dependent on how you rate Dortmund’s chances. If they are legitimate challengers, it makes the +300 more appealing.
Intriguing Italy
All eyes are on Juventus. Andrea Pirlo is in the dugout as the Old Lady chases the Champions League once again. Maurizio Sarri was fired for his failure in Europe’s top club competition, but this ageing core is not going to get many more chances. Although drawn with Barcelona, Juve should cruise into the last 16. Their +1300 puts them at the back of the group of main contenders. It looks a fair price for Cristiano Ronaldo’s side.
Italy’s other clubs are where it gets interesting. Inter (+3000), Atalanta (+3500) and Lazio (+8000) accompany Juventus as Serie A’s representatives. Inter’s group is difficult, Atalanta’s could be challenging with Ajax and Liverpool, while Lazio got lucky, landing Zenit out of pot one.
Atalanta showed last season they can compete in the Champions League. There’s no question of Inter’s quality. Lazio are less relevant here, but if they get into the knockout rounds, anything is possible.
The attention is naturally on Juventus. Their experience and the presence of Ronaldo makes them Italy’s strongest chance of a European champion, but it isn’t all about the 36-time Scudetto winners.
Avoid the Premier League
Virgil van Dijk’s injury is a massive blow to Liverpool’s chances. Pep Guardiola’s recent Champions League record is underwhelming. Chelsea and Manchester United are hard to predict this season, but both have glaring weaknesses which undermine any chance of a deep Champions League run.
The depth of the Premier League works in its favor. Luck plays a huge part in the Champions League, and having four teams that are expected to make the knockout rounds gives a boost over other nations. Strong cases can be made against each of the four sides, however, and none represent good value individually.
It’s difficult to justify going against Bayern. Throw the potential of Dortmund into that, and a German winner is a good bet at +300. The intrigue of Italy might make them the pick of the bunch at +700, however.
Best bet: Italian Champions League winner (+700)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
