England vs Germany Odds & Prediction – UEFA Nations League Matchday 6 (Sept 26)
- England hosts Germany in the last window of Nations League group-stage play on Monday, September 26th, at 2:45 pm ET
- In the reverse fixture, the two sides finished in a one-all stalemate thanks to an 88th-minute penalty goal from Harry Kane
- Get the England vs Germany picks and betting prediction, below
The Nations League continues on Monday afternoon with England vs Germany, a match with so much allure. This is one of the final World Cup tune-ups, and also represents the final Nations League matchday of the group stages.
England vs Germany Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| England | +130 |
| Germany | +190 |
| Draw | +210 |
Odds as of September 25th from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Nations League match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.
England enter Monday’s match as +130 favorites on the three-way moneyline with Germany +190 away underdogs and the draw at just +210.
Unfortunately, England has already been relegated down to League B after a horrid five-match winless stretch. In fact, England and San Marino are the only countries to have managed not score a non-penalty goal in the five matches so far.
Similarly, Hansi Flick’s Germany side has also had a rather uncharacteristic run in the Nations League. DFB-Elf only have one win in the group stage, a 5-2 triumph over Italy. However, if they win and Italy draws or loses to Hungary, they can still avoid relegation. As a result, expect a tad more effort from the Germans, with something still on the table to play for.
Over their last five head-to-head encounters, England has a slightly favorable record at 2-2-1. But, at their current pace, it is just inconceivable to favor the Three Lions.
Over/Under Odds & Last Goal Prop
Furthermore, I would also not favor a high score in this fixture. On a wider scale, goals are just not flowing at a high clip in League A play. Most of these countries have larger World Cup aspirations, which obviously impacts rotation and desire. This has had a direct impact on over/under bets, with only 50% of League A’s Matchday 5 games going over 2.5 total goals.
🎙️ Hansi Flick: "This defeat will not throw us off track. We know what is required of us now and this has opened our eyes a bit. We played badly in the first half and lacked confidence."#GERHUN pic.twitter.com/D48WLNpM1J
— Germany (@DFB_Team_EN) September 23, 2022
The odds for the under on 2.5 total goals sit at a juicy -145 in this one. This play has also hit in 80% of England and Germany’s ten combined matches.
The other play I have my eyes on is the draw no bet in favor of Germany with odds of +115. This has much less risk compared to the moneyline and pairs nicely with the logic of this game meaning less to Gareth Southgate’s side.
England vs Germany Statistics
| 0.20 | Goals per game | 1.60 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals per game | 1.65 |
| 1.40 | Goals allowed per game | 1.20 |
| 1.27 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.44 |
| 54.2% | Possession % | 65.2% |
| 86.6% | Passing Accuracy | 88.6% |
| 20% | Clean Sheet % | 0.0% |
| 12.40 | Shots per game | 11.20 |
Stats in table from 2022-23 Nations League play.
Southgate’s Questionable Choices
Speaking of Southgate, you just have to question England’s recent performances, especially in the offensive third. This is the first time in eight years that they are winless in five, a result that epitomizes Southgate’s conservative and impractical style of play.
The only reason England plays a back five is because the center-halves are not good enough to play as a duo. Instead of using the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Ben Chilwell on the wings, he favors Reece James and Bukayo Saka. Thus, you have not only managed to weaken the defense, but also hinder the attack, by moving your best right-winger to left-back.
▪️ Winless in last five games
▪️ Scoreless in last three games⁰▪️ Relegated to League B in Nations LeagueEngland’s run of form going into the World Cup 🥴 pic.twitter.com/5mlpDwnJhz
— B/R Football (@brfootball) September 23, 2022
On top of that, Southgate does not even include Ivan Toney in the his matchday squad against Italy, despite carrying an offense that has scored seven less goals than expected. While this sounds like a rant, it is just boundless evidence of Southgate’s missteps.
While Germany has also struggled recently, it has not been to the same degree. I look at the Germany team sheet and still get excited because they have a shred of identity. For me, that is enough to take a flyer on them in a game they need to win to avoid relegation.
England vs Germany Projected Lineups and Injuries
England Projected Lineup: Ramsdale, Chilwell, Tomori, Maguire, Stones, Trippier, Ward-Prowse, Bellingham, Sterling, Saka, Toney
Injuries & Absences: Grealish (suspended), Sancho (unselected), Rashford (unselected)
Germany Projected Lineup: Ter Stegen, Raum, Schlotterbeck, Sule, Hofmann, Gundogan, Kimmich, Sane, Muller, Musiala, Havertz
Injuries & Absences: Rudiger (suspended), Goretzka, Neuer, Brandt, Nmecha
England vs Germany Prediction
Once again, my best bet for this match is the Germany draw no bet with odds of +115.
Pick: Germany Draw No Bet (+115)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
