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Germany vs Denmark Prediction, Odds & Starting Lineups for Round of 16 (June 29)

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in Soccer News

Updated: June 29, 2024 at 12:01 am EDT

Published:


Oct 17, 2023; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Germany midfielder Leon Goretzka (8) looks to pass against Mexico during the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Lewis-USA TODAY Sports
  • Germany topped Group A with 2 wins and a draw, scoring 8 goals
  • Denmark finished 2nd in Group C after 3 consecutive draws
  • The Germans are heavily favored to advance to the quarterfinals

A tasty matchup is on tap in Dortmund on Saturday as tournament hosts Germany take on a stingy Denmark side in the first knockout round of Euro 2024.

Germany won Group A in style, kicking off with a 5-1 thrashing of Scotland before blanking Hungary 2-0. Die Mannschaft drew 1-1 with Switzerland in their group finale, with super-sub Niclas Füllkrug heading home a stoppage-time equalizer.

The defensive-minded Danes drew all three of their group games by a combined score of 2-2. They opened with a 1-1 result against Slovenia, drew England by the same score, then played Serbia to a goalless stalemate to claim second in Group C.

The three-way Germany vs Denmark odds favor a win for the hosts inside 90 minutes, but Denmark’s backline will provide a stiff test.

Germany vs Denmark Odds

Team Moneyline Total
Germany -300 Over 2.5 (+108)
Denmark +290 Under 2.5 (-130)
Draw +280 N/A

Germany is listed at -300 to win in regulation, with Denmark at +500 and the draw priced at +280. You can also get Germany to win in regulation on the three-way line at +165.

 

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Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. See our collection of the top Euro 2024 betting sites for more odds.

The Germans opened the tournament as joint-favorites in the Euro winner odds and remain co-chalk at +350 alongside Spain. Denmark are +3300 longshots to lift the trophy.

There’s not much head-to-head history to draw from here. The teams last met in a June 2021 friendly that finished 1-1. Overall, Germany leads the series 15-8-5.

Germany: Last 10 Matches

Opponent Opp. FIFA Rank Date Location Result
Switzerland 19 Jun 23, 2024 Neutral D 1-1
Hungary 37 Jun 19, 2024 Neutral W 2-0
Scotland 40 Jun 14, 2024 Neutral W 5-1
Greece 52 Jun 7, 2024 Home W 2-1
Ukraine 24 Jun 3, 2024 Home D 0-0
Netherlands 7 Mar 26, 2024 Home W 2-1
France 2 Mar 23, 2024 Away W 2-0
Austria 25 Nov 21, 2023 Away L 2-0
Turkey 39 Nov 18, 2023 Home L 2-3
Mexico 15 Oct 17, 2023 Away D 2-2

The host nation enters this clash unbeaten in seven games (5-2-0). Their eight goals scored is tops in the tournament and they’ve conceded just twice.

However, they failed to impress in three pre-tournament friendlies (1-1-1), including a 1-0 home loss to Iceland. Still, they managed to generate 10.1 expected goals over those three matches.

Young star Jamal Musiala has been the standout attacker with two goals on five shots (three on target). Veteran midfielder Toni Kroos has been masterful, completing 95.7% of his passes in the group stage. As a team, Germany registered the most shots (57) and shots on target (19) in the group stage.

Denmark: Last 10 Matches

Opponent Opp. FIFA Rank Date Location Result
Serbia 33 Jun 25, 2024 Neutral D 0-0
England 4 Jun 20, 2024 Neutral D 1-1
Slovenia 57 Jun 16, 2024 Neutral D 1-1
Norway 41 Jun 8, 2024 Home W 3-1
Sweden 20 Jun 5, 2024 Home W 2-1
Faroe Islands 125 Mar 26, 2024 Home W 2-0
Switzerland 12 Mar 23, 2024 Home D 0-0
Northern Ireland 58 Nov 20, 2023 Away L 2-0
Slovenia 57 Nov 17, 2023 Home W 2-1
San Marino 211 Oct 17, 2023 Away W 2-1

The Danes are unbeaten in six but four of those results were draws, including their last three. They found the net just twice in group play and managed only seven total shots on target.

YouTube video

Christian Eriksen and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg lead the team with 10 and six shot attempts, respectively, but both have just one goal between them. Fullback Joakim Mæhle has been a defensive force with nine interceptions, four blocked shots, and four tackles won.

In the group stage, Denmark had the second-fewest attacks (103) and the lowest passing accuracy (76%) of the 16 teams that advanced.

Germany vs Denmark Projected Lineups

Germany (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Klostermann, Ginter, Rüdiger, Raum; Kimmich, Goretzka; Hofmann, Musiala, Sané; Havertz

Denmark (4-2-3-1): Schmeichel; Andersen, Christensen, Kjær, Mæhle; Højbjerg, Delaney; Skov Olsen, Eriksen, Braithwaite; Wind

Füllkrug could replace Havertz up top for Germany after his late heroics against the Swiss. Denmark will likely stick with the same XI that performed well defensively against Serbia.

Germany vs Denmark Prediction

The Germans are in dazzling form and I expect them to be too much for Denmark over 90 minutes. That said, I don’t see this being a high-scoring affair. Denmark’s sturdy defense will make things difficult, but Germany’s superior depth, especially off the bench, should see them through.

Back Germany to win in regulation in a game that sees under 2.5 goals scored. For a juicier moneyline play, take a flier on a 1-0 correct score in favor of Die Mannschaft.

Germany vs Denmark Picks:

  • Germany three-way moneyline (-165)
  • Under 2.5 goals (-130)
  • Germany to win 1-0 (+550)
Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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