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Germany vs Scotland Euro 2024 Odds, Picks & Predictions (June 14)

Ian Jones

by Ian Jones in Soccer News

Updated Jun 14, 2024 · 11:40 AM PDT

German soccer player Ilkay Gundogan dribbling a soccer ball.
Oct 17, 2023; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Germany midfielder İlkay Gundogan (21) looks to pass against Mexico in the first half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Lewis-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 2024 UEFA Euro Championship is set to begin on Friday, June 13th
  • Hosts & three-time Euro champions Germany take on Scotland in Munich at 3 pm ET
  • See the Germany vs Scotland odds, projected lineups, props & predictions for Friday’s Euro 2024 opener

Euro 2024 is finally here! The 17th edition of the UEFA European Championship is set to begin on Friday, June 13th, and build towards the finals in Berlin on July 14th.

Hosts Germany kick things off on Friday in Munich against a Scotland side that claimed their place at the Euros early in qualifying, but are lacking for results as of late.

Odds in Germany vs Scotland heavily favor Die Nationalmannschaft, a team who is currently getting +550 to win UEFA Euro 2024, while their opponents in The Tartan Army are a longshot +10000 to win the tournament.

Germany vs Scotland Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total Goals
Germany -1.5 (-125) -340 O 2.5 (-150)
Scotland +1.5 (-110) +900 U 2.5 (+120)
Draw +500

Germany are big favorites at -340 to win the tournament opener, with Scotland set as massive +900 underdogs to score an upset.  A potential draw is listed at +500.

The Total Goals line for the match is set at O/U 2.5. In the qualifiers and friendlies played by Germany and Scotland prior to Friday’s match, the two teams combined for 10 out of 16 matches that went over 2.5 goals.

*Odds as of June 13th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Use the best sportsbook promotions before betting on the Euro 2024 tournament.

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Germany vs Scotland Projected Lineups

Germany (4-2-3-1) Scotland (5-4-1)
Manuel Neuer (GK) Angus Gunn (GK)
Joshua Kimmich (RB) Anthony Ralston (RWB)
Antonio Rudiger (RCB) Ryan Porteous (RCB)
Jonathan Tah (LCB) Jack Hendry  (CB)
Max Mittelstaedt (LB) Kieran Tierney (LCB)
Robert Andrich (DM) Andrew Robertson (LWB)
Toni Kroos (DM) Scott McTominay (RM)
Jamal Musiala (RW) Billy Gilmour (RCM)
Ilkay Gundogan (CM) Callum McGregor (LCM)
Florian Wirtz (LW) John McGinn (LM)
Kai Havertz (ST) Che Adams (ST)

Germany Undefeated in Four Before Euro 2024

Perhaps the greatest benefit of hosting a major soccer tournament is that the host countries will always automatically qualify!

That isn’t to say that the German men’s national team would not have qualified for Euro 2024 under their own merit. Rather, it’s incumbent on the host nation to put together a meaningful schedule of games that will shape the team for the road ahead. Has manager Julian Nagelsmann sufficiently challenged his players prior to the tournament? Let’s break down their recent results.

Dating back to October 2023, Germany owns a record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses over their last 8 matches. That’s a solid string of games regardless of who’s produced them, but what’s important to note is when each result took place. The more recent matches should have a strong correlation to how the current team will perform.

In other words? Last November’s losses in Austria and at home to Turkey, as well as the draw against Mexico in Philadelphia, carry less significance than the wins over 2nd-ranked France and 6th-ranked Netherlands roughly two and a half months ago.

Yes, these aren’t the World Cup winners from a decade ago, but Germany’s current 16th-place FIFA ranking belies the improvements of the national team. Under Nagelsmann, that involves a patient advancement with the ball and a tactical high press without it. The press can be beat, but only by teams with sharp precision.

Results of Recent Germany Matches

Opponent Opp. FIFA Rank Date Location Result
Greece 50th Jun 7, 2024 M’gladbach, GER W 2-1
Ukraine 22nd June 3, 2024 Nurnberg, GER D 0-0
Netherlands 6th Mar 26, 2024 Frankfurt, GER W 2-1
France 2nd Mar 23, 2024 Lyon, FRA W 2-0
Austria 24th Nov 21, 2023 Wien, AUS L 2-0
Turkey 37th Nov 18, 2023 Berlin, GER L 2-3
Mexico 12th Oct 17, 2023 Philadelphia, USA D 2-2
USA 11th Oct 14, 2023 Hartford, CT W 3-1

Scotland Looking to Rediscover Qualifier Form

Scotland stands on the laurels of being one of the earliest qualifiers, despite finishing as runners-up to Spain in Group A.

That’s what happens when you open the campaign with five consecutive victories. You can’t blame a team for coasting once qualification was secured, but the path to Euro 2024 for The Tartan Army has not exactly been the smoothest road to traverse.

YouTube video

In their last eight matches, Scotland hold a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses. Take away the formalities against Georgia and Norway since Scotland was already in the Euros, and that record drops to 1-1-4. That includes multi-goal losses to Spain, France, and the Netherlands, as well as a loss at home to Northern Ireland.

Yes, there’s a win in the mix, but it was against an 832nd-ranked Gibraltar on neutral ground. For the sake of confidence, ideally, that score would have been juiced a little bit.

Don’t get me wrong, Scotland knows how to dig in their heels and earn results: that 5-0 record to open qualifying is not an aberration. Nor was their qualifying for the 2020 Euros if you go back even further.

But if you’re going off recent form alone, particularly against opponents on a level similar to Germany, this opening match will be an extremely difficult test.

Results of Recent Scotland Matches

Opponent Opp. FIFA Rank Date Location Result
Finland 61st Jun 7, 2024 Glasgow, SCO D 2-2
Gibraltar 832nd June 3, 2024 Algarve, POR W 2-0
No. Ireland 74th Mar 26, 2024 Glasgow, SCO L 0-1
Netherlands 6th Mar 22, 2024 Amsterdam, NED L 0-4
Norway 42nd Nov 19, 2023 Glasgow, SCO D 3-3
Georgia 76th Nov 16, 2023 Tbilisi, GEO D 2-2
France 2nd Oct 17, 2023 Lille, FRA L 1-4
Spain 10th Oct 12, 2023 Sevilla, ESP L 0-2

Germany vs Scotland Team & Player Props

Given that Germany will likely dominate possession by pressing the Scottish five-man defensive block, it stands to reason that Die Nationalmannschaft garner larger betting lines on offense.

That said, if Germany’s Total Corners prop continues to be plus-money at 6.5, hammer it. Look to their last two matches for inspiration: Germany earned 11 corners against Ukraine and 13 against Greece, a team with a defense-first mentality similar to that of Scotland. There may also be money in Germany’s Total Shots prop, but it’s likely the total will stay under 17.5.

For Scotland, stay with the unders. A low possession percentage will limit their numbers on offense, particularly if they score first; if that happens, the backline may grow from five to ten players. Until that happens, however, +2.5 Shots on Target feels like a safe bet, while you can also take a risk on -2.5 Corners.

Germany vs Scotland Team Props

Team Shots Shots on Target Corners Cards
GER O 17.5 (+100) | U 17.5 (-138) O 5.5 (-150) | U 5.5 (+110) O 6.5 (+110)| U 6.5 (-150) O 1.5 (+125) | U 1.5 (-175)
SCO O 8.5 (-120) | U 8.5 (-120) O 2.5 (-150) | U 2.5 (+110) O 2.5 (-125) | U 2.5 (-110) O 2.5 (+150) | U 2.5 (-200)

*Team Props as of June 12th at Bet365 Sportsbook. 

Given how the German strikers will likely be pressing hard, I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking a 3-leg flyer on Kai Havertz: Anytime Scorer (+145), 2+ Fouls (-165), and To Be Booked (+550).

However, be warned on the To Be Booked prop for any German player: the team has collected just seven cards in eight matches under Nagelsmann (eight, if you count the card Nagelsmann himself earned from the bench against France). Instead, I’d look at Havertz for Anytime Scorer & 2+ Fouls, plus an Anytime Assist from Jamal Musiala (+300).

If you’re looking for an Anytime Scorer prop for Scotland, I’d lean into the striker who gets the start, whether it’s Che Adams (+500) or Lawrence Shankland (+500).

Andrew Robertson will be looked to for delivering looping crosses to his strikers, but if you want a second leg for a Scottish player prop I’d look at John McGinn. The Scottish captain will have a lot of running to do both in support of his striker and leading the front defensively. That will likely result in McGinn picking up at least 2 fouls (-125) and being booked (+270).

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Germany vs Scotland Player Props

Player First Scorer Anytime Scorer Anytime Assist 2+ Fouls To Be Booked
Kai Havertz (GER) +440 +145 +320 -165 +550
Jamal Musiala (GER) +500 +180 +300 +270 +900
Florian Wirtz (GER) +550 +195 +170 +200 +950
Ilkay Gundogan (GER) +600 +220 +340 +190 +800
Che Adams (SCO) +1300 +500 +1000 +190 +500
Scott McTominay (SCO) +1500 +700 +1400 +240 +290
John McGinn (SCO) +1700 +750 +1100 -125 +270
Andrew Robertson (SCO) +2400 +2400 +950 +330 +300

*Player Props as of June 12th at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Germany vs Scotland Predictions

When picking a potential full-time result, it’s always helpful to find common opponents to make an informed decision. Thankfully, for Germany and Scotland, we get have that info at our disposal, and the data for each team couldn’t be more dissimilar.

Both sides have faced off against France and the Netherlands within the last year, with the Germans winning their matches 2-0 and 2-1, while the Scots dropped both, losing 1-4 and 0-4. Mash those stats together and I think it’s fair to say Germany will likely win comfortably in the tournament opener.

But “How comfortably?” is the real question to ask. Despite their FIFA ranking going unchanged since last October, Germany has been resurgent under Nagelsmann, while Scotland has had a tough go of getting quality results in pre-tournament matches.

Scotland will put in work on both sides of the ball and The Tartan Army will find their chances on offense, likely on the counter, but I fear those chances will likely come few and far between.

Germany vs Scotland picks:

  • Germany -1.5 (-125)
  • Scotland Over 2.5 Shots on Target (-150)
  • John McGinn 2+ Fouls (-125)
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