Ireland +232 to beat Denmark: Euro 2020 Qualifying Matchday 10 Best Bets for November 18

Mick McCarthy RoI manager
A win for the Republic of Ireland over Denmark will be enough to take them to the Euro 2020 finals. But manager Mick McCarthy knows the size of the task that awaits. Photo from @RAIreland (Twitter).
  • Matchday 10 in Euro 2020 qualifying on Monday, November 18
  • A winner-takes-all night in Dublin for the Republic of Ireland
  • See the odds and predictions for two of Monday’s top matches below

It’s Matchday 10 in qualifying for next summer’s European championships, and the last chance saloon for some teams to clinch the automatic places in next summer’s finals.

The teams who have already qualified are Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, England, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and Ukraine

We’ll take a look at a couple of Monday’s games (November 18) and see if we can identify some value for the bettors out there.

Republic of Ireland vs Denmark Euro 2020 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Republic of Ireland +1.5 (-455) +232 U 2.5 (-171)
Denmark -1.5 (+310) +131 O 2.5 (+130)
Draw N/A +230 N/A

*All odds taken on November 17, 2019

Massive Night in Dublin

The equation is simple: if the Republic beat Denmark in Dublin on Monday (2:45pm ET) they will qualify for next summer’s finals. Now, if Switzerland are held by Gibraltar, the Irish would need to beat the Danes by two goals. But if Mick McCarthy’s men do beat the Danes, the likelihood is it will be enough due to their better head-to-head record.

It’s still a big ask for the Irish, however, as their form has been patchy to say the least, with just two wins in their last six games, both of which came in friendlies – against Bulgaria and New Zealand. Their three wins in the group have come against Gibraltar (twice) and at home to Georgia, so they do need to find something special to beat the Danes. Last time out they turned in a disappointing performance in Switzerland, losing 2-0.

The Danes, by contrast, are unbeaten in the group but have been hampered by being unable to turn draws into wins, one of which was the 1-1 draw with the Irish in Copenhagen back in June. This result may come back to haunt them, although a draw in Dublin will be enough for qualification.

Danes in Form

Since June, the only blemish on their record has been a 0-0 draw in Georgia and, that aside, they’ve had two 6-0 wins over Gibraltar, a thumping 5-1 home win over the Georgians at home, a 4-0 win over Luxembourg and, crucially, a narrow 1-0 win over group rivals Switzerland.

For the Irish, as well as the prize of a place in the finals, there’s also the chance for redemption as when the two sides met in a two-legged qualifier for the 2018 World Cup, after a 0-0 draw in Copenhagen, the Danes ran riot in Dublin with an emphatic 5-1 victory.

It’s unlikely to be a repeat of that freak result, but despite a noisy Dublin crowd giving it everything, I see the extra quality in the Danish ranks as being decisive, maybe an away win by the odd goal.

Pick: Denmark to win (+131)

Greece vs Finland Euro 2020 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Greece -0.5 (-105) +104 U 2.5 (-178)
Finland +0.5 (-111) +318 O 2.5 (+315)
Draw N/A +235 N/A

*All odds taken on November 17, 2019

Greece Hoping to End Disappointing Campaign in Style

Greece have missed out on the Euro 2020 finals and also look likely to miss out on a place in the playoffs. They have, however, had a recent upturn in form and, after ending a long winless streak by beating Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 in October, they followed this up with a 1-0 win over Armenia on Matchday 9.

The 1-0 win in Armenia was important for them as they have generally performed poorly away from home but they end the campaign in front of their own fans, hoping to sign off with a win against opponents who have already qualified for their first-ever major finals.

In a two-legged qualifier for the 2018 World Cup, the Danes ran riot in Dublin against the Republic of Ireland with an emphatic 5-1 victory

The Fins sealed their place in next summer’s tournament in style with a 3-0 win over Liechtenstein, with two goals from star striker Teemu Pukki and another from Jasse Tuominen. Despite losing three group games, Finland’s success came from being able to turn draws into wins and a 6-0-3 record suggests a draw is an unlikely outcome on Monday.

Value With the Fins

It appears a tad erroneous that, despite Finland heading to the finals and Greece staying at home, the home side is the favorite. But it is reflective of the Greeks improving form and the way they have started, picking up results when it’s too late. But, for me, the value here is with the Finland win.

With their passage to the finals already assured, the Fins will play with freedom in Athens and I can see Greece surging forward in numbers only to be picked off by Pukki and co. The visitors have used this counter-attacking style successfully during this campaign, and after having to overcome a 10-man Liechtenstein defense on Friday night, will enjoy the (relative) open spaces of the Spyros Louis Stadium.

Pick: Finland to win (+318)

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