Juventus vs Freiburg Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Europa League Round of 16 Leg 1
- It’s Juventus vs Freiburg in the Europa League round-of-16 1st leg on Thursday, March 9
- Juve are third favorites to win the UEL while this is only the Germans’ fifth European competition
- Find our Juventus vs Freiburg prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks
It’s Juventus vs Freiburg in the UEFA Europa League round-of-16 first leg on Thursday, March 9. Kick-off in the Allianz Stadium is at 3:00 pm ET. The hosts start as odds-on favorites but ar they the best bet for your Juventus vs Freiburg prediction?
It’s been a very difficult domestic season for the hosts, but they have the chance of winning some silverware here and are currently listed as third favorites to win the Europa League behind Manchester United and Arsenal. Their German visitors are having a good season and are currently fifth in the Bundesliga.
We preview our Juventus vs Freiburg picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.
Juventus vs Freiburg Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | To Advance |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | -155 | -265 |
| Freiburg | +475 | +205 |
| Draw | +285 | N/A |
The bookmakers have Juve listed as odds-on favorites at -155 for the home win with an implied probability of 61%, while Freiburg are listed at +475 to win the first leg with a win probability of just 77%. The draw is priced at +285 in the Juventus vs Freiburg odds, which is implied at 26%.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 8.
Juventus vs Freiburg Over/Under and Spread
With the benchmark listed at 2.5, the bookies have pitched the under at -155 and the over at +125 and so are anticipating a tight game with few goals.
Juventus vs Freiburg Preview
Juventus’ passage to the round of 16 was straightforward – winning the second leg in Nantes 3-0 – but the 1-1 draw in the first leg in Turin drew lots of criticism from the Italian press and their fans. An Angel Di Maria hat-trick in France, helped by Nantes going down to 10 men early on, helped ease the pressure.
Juve find themselves in the Europa League – Europe’s second-tier cup competition – after bombing in the Champions League Group H, finishing third behind Benfica and PSG. Their consolation prize of a place in the UCL was compounded when, due to financial irregularities, they were docked 15 points in Serie A. As a result, they are now down in seventh.
Focused now on Freiburg 👀 pic.twitter.com/8pxJJOyHC4
— JuventusFC 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@juventusfcen) March 7, 2023
Off-Field Problems for Juve
Nevertheless, in Serie A they have been on an outstanding run of form, going eight unbeaten, but this came to an end at the weekend when they lost 1-0 away to Roma – not helped by the sending off of Moise Kean.
But, against this difficult backdrop, they have a genuine chance of lifting the Europa League trophy. It’s a competition that over the years has been to their liking after winning it twice – in 1990 and 1993 – and more recently having lost just one of their last 16 games.
Freiburg Face Italian Opponents for First Time
This is only the fifth time that Freiburg have qualified for European competition, so are at the opposite end of the experience spectrum to Juve, but they come into this in a good place with a 12-6-5 Bundesliga record that has taken them up to fifth. They are on course to improve on their sixth-place finish in 2021-22.
The Germans are one of only three teams to go through the UEL group phase undefeated – Fenerbahçe and Real Betis are the other two – and only Real Sociedad conceded fewer goals. This will be the first time they have ever faced Italian opponents but for all the reasons above they will be undaunted.
Europapokalwoche! pic.twitter.com/IwU22cHU66
— SC Freiburg (@scfreiburg) March 6, 2023
Streich’s Men on Verge of Champions League Places
In the Bundesliga, Christian Streich’s men have lost just one of their last seven games although their progress to the top four has been hindered by two draws in their last two games. At the weekend, they drew 0-0 with Daniel Farke’s Borussia Monchengladbach – only the second time they have drawn a blank in their last 17 matches.
They are still in with a great chance of Champions League soccer next season as they are on the same number of points (42) as fourth-placed RB Leipzig and are only two points adrift of third-placed Union Berlin.
Juventus vs Freiburg Team Lineups and Injuries
Juventus Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Danilo, Bremer, Bonucci, Cuadrado, Fagioli, Locatelli, Rabiot, Chiesa, Di Maria, Vlahovic.
Injuries & absences: Milik.
Freiburg Projected Lineup: Flekken, Kubler, Ginter, Lienhart, Gunter, Eggestein, Hofler, Doan, Gregoritsch, Grifo, Holer.
Injuries & absences: Kyereh.
Juventus vs Freiburg Head-to-Head Stats
| 2-1-5 | European record 2022-23 | 4-2-0* |
| 13 / 14 | Goals for / against | 13 / 3* |
| 14.1 | Shots per game** | 14.8 |
| 86.3 | Passing accuracy (%)** | 52 |
| 49.3 | Possession (%)** | 52.5 |
| WDWWWL | Form guide (all comps) | LWWWDD |
* Champions League and Europa League.
** Stats from UEFA Official Site.
Juventus vs Freiburg Prediction
Juve’s fine run of form puts them in pole position for the win here but they will be wary of the 1-1 struggle they had against Nantes at home in the first leg of their playoff tie. They will not want a repeat, especially as the away leg in Germany will be played in front of a noisy, passionate crowd and will be potentially tricky.
So, for me, there is value in the home win, especially a low-scoring one in our Juventus vs Freiburg prediction.
Juventus vs Freiburg Pick: Juve to win (-155) / Juve to win 1-0 (+370)
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Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
