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MLS Picks, Odds Week 33: Toronto FC vs Inter Miami, Portland vs LAFC & More Best Bets

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Sep 30, 2022 · 11:23 AM PDT

MLS picks
Sep 27, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; FC Cincinnati forward Brenner (right) celebrates with midfielder Junior Moreno (93) after scoring a goal against the Seattle Sounders FC during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
  • MLS Week 33 is the penultimate round of MLS regular season matches before the MLS Cup Playoffs
  • Both the Philadelphia Union and LAFC are tied at 64 points in the Supporters’ Shield race
  • Read on for the MLS odds and our MLS predictions for today below

There are just two weeks left in the MLS regular season and jockeying for positions in the Supporters’ Shield and playoffs are coming down to the wire. We’ve waded through the MLS odds for Week 33 and come up with our top MLS picks for this weekend here.

Major League Soccer has been on an international break, however, two games were played earlier this week where we went 2-0. That brings our season-long MLS picks record to 69-50, +11.08 units.

Those two games saw the Cali Classico end 3-2 for the LA Galaxy last Saturday, and Seattle and Cincinnati splitting the points on Tuesday drawing 1-1. That inches both LA and Cincy closer to playoff spots, while the Seattle Sounders’ hopes of never missing the playoffs are on life support being five points back of seventh-place Minnesota.

Read on for the odds and our MLS picks for this weekend below.

MLS Odds Week 33

Matchup Home Draw Away
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami CF +102 +300 +215
New England Revolution vs Atlanta United +128 +280 +175
Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas +112 +275 +210
Charlotte FC vs Philadelphia Union +175 +240 +145
CF Montreal vs DC United -215 +380 +460
Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls +117 +235 +225
FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire -137 +325 +300
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United +120 +300 +175
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC +120 +280 +188
LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake -141 +290 +350
NYCFC vs Orlando City SC -130 +270 +335
Portland Timbers vs LAFC +185 +275 +125
Sporting KC vs Seattle Sounders +112 +250 +225
Nashville SC vs Houston Dynamo -215 +325 +575

Odds from Barstool Sportsbook

Week 33’s biggest favorites include Montreal over DC and Nashville over Houston, both listed as over two-dollar favorites in MLS Week 33.

 

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MLS Picks for Week 33

We’ve touched on plays covering all three days from MLS Week 33 in our MLS picks below. The Week 33 card features Toronto vs Miami on Friday, nine games on Saturday and four more on Sunday.

Very few teams in MLS play to a higher amount of Unders than Overs during the course of a season. It’s why we usually focus on goals and Overs. However, one game does has the potential for an Under this weekend. Only six of 28 teams have more Unders at this point in 2022. Five of those six play in the Eastern Conference. Two of them will meet on Saturday night when the Columbus Crew (15-16 O/U) host the New York Red Bulls (13-19). Those 19 Unders for the Red Bulls are the most of any team. The Crew will also be missing a huge part of their offense as Cucho Hernandez will miss out through suspension.

The teams drew 1-1 earlier this season, but the Over is actually 3-1 in their previous four meetings. The Crew need points for the playoffs, while the Red Bulls want to hold home-field in the first round of the playoffs.

Toronto FC vs Inter Miami Prediction

MLS Week 33 kicks off on Friday night with Toronto FC hosting Inter Miami CF at 7:30 pm EST. This is a huge game for Miami who are looking to hold onto the seventh and final playoff spot in the East. They have 42 points, tied with but above Columbus in eighth, also with 32 points. Each of Atlanta (40 points) and Charlotte and New England with 38 points are all technically still alive too.

Miami went on the road to DC in Week 32 winning 3-2 with the winner coming in the 94′ minute through Gonzalo Higuain. Higuain scored in his third straight game, scoring four times in those three games. Higuain scored a brace in the match prior against Columbus, also a late winner in the 82′ minute.

Toronto has officially been eliminated and will start to look towards next season and a full year with the likes of Lorenzo Insigne, Federico Bernardeschi and other midseason additions. TFC entered the international break on a three-game losing skid after losing 4-0 to Orlando.

It was 2-1 Miami back in August when the game was played in DRV PNK Stadium. I see at least a similar scoreline in terms of goals this time too.

Miami is just 3-3-10 on the road this season. They’ve conceded a goal in 9/10 recent road matches. A bet on both teams scoring and the Over has cashed in 7/8 of their matches, whether home or away.

Toronto has been getting shelled lately, allowing four goals in three straight games. The 61 goals conceded on the year is the third-worst in MLS. Prior to the Orlando shutout though, they had scored in eight straight. A bet on the Over is on an 8-1 run in TFC matches. Both scoring and the Over is 7-2.

On top of those stats, it’s the final home game for TFC this season. BMO Field should give TFC an extra push and there’s the added incentive of playing against an old teammate as Alejandro Pozuelo, now pulling the strings for the Herons is returning to face his old team.

  • Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 (-125); 1 unit

Portland Timbers vs LAFC Prediction

One of the matches of the MLS Week 33 sees sixth-place Portland hosting first-place LAFC on Sunday.

Clean sheets are rare in this head-to-head. LAFC did win 2-0 in the last meeting but that came in the US Open Cup. The teams drew 1-1 in Los Angeles earlier this season in league play. Last year Portland won all three matchups, all by a 2-1 scoreline. They played four times in 2020 with scorelines of 1-1, 1-1, 4-2 and 2-2. You can go back further and find several more high-scoring affairs.

But let’s focus on the present and this year for our MLS picks. Portland didn’t look great in Columbus in Week 32, but they escaped Lower.com Field with a 1-1 draw, scoring in the 95′ minute. Gio Savarese’s side is now unbeaten in five and three points above eighth place Real Salt Lake.

Perhaps more interestingly from a betting perspective for our MLS picks is that their late goal adds to a trend that has seen both teams scoring in 11 of the past 12 Timbers’ games. At home at Providence Park, the Timbers are undefeated in nine, scoring in each.

LAFC sits tied atop the Supporters’ Shield standings with Philadelphia on 64 points. But fitting all the new parts together has been a challenge for Los Angeles’ head coach Steve Cherundolo. They’re 2-1-1 in their past four and 2-1-4 in their past seven. They just won 3-1 over Houston in their last outing. Those two wins in that stretch both came at home. Away from the Banc, they’ve been dreadful of late going winless in five and allowing multiple goals in four of those five. Their last road match was 1-1 in Minnesota, but a bet on both teams scoring and the Over was 5-0 in their previous five away from home.

LAFC may look disorganized right now but with the likes Carlos Vela, Cristian Arango, Gareth Bale, Jose Cifuentes and Kwadwo Opoku there will always be goals out there. They’ve scored in 14 straight and that should be no different against a Portland team with just one clean sheet in their past 12 games.

  • Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 (-143); 1 unit

MLS Parlay Picks

Ok, I think each of these teams could likely win their matches outright. So if you want to go that way in your MLS picks, backing Philadelphia and Cincinnati to win on the moneyline, I wouldn’t talk you out of it. But if you want the little extra safety, especially with Charlotte fighting for their playoff lives, backing both on the double chance (win or draw) is another way to play it in this MLS parlay on Saturday.

Charlotte FC vs Philadelphia Union

  • Pick – Philadelphia double chance (-220)

The Union are fighting to finish in the top spot overall in the league. They’re tied with LAFC with 64 points. If the two teams do eventually collide in the MLS Cup Final, home field could be crucial. But this is also a huge game for Charlotte as their slim shot at reaching the playoffs in their first season is still technically alive.

The Crown are strong at home, going 9-0-6. They’ve won their past two games, including a 3-2 win through a Kyle Swiderski 96′ winner in Chicago in Week 32. Philly won the earlier meeting 2-0 in Philly but just drew against another team on the road fighting for their playoff lives in Atlanta, drawing 0-0 in Week 32. The Union had won five straight, outscoring their opponents 23-2 in their five matches prior to the Atlanta draw.

FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire

  • Pick – Cincinnati double chance (-400)

FC Cincinnati was one of the four teams to play during the international break and drew 1-1 on Tuesday. The point puts them in sole possession of fifth in the East with 46 points. It also means they are undefeated in 11 games and have lost just once in their past 18.

The Chicago Fire are playing out the stretch as the East’s 12th place team. They’ve lost each of their past two games by a 3-2 scoreline and have just a single win in their past eight. Away from home, the Fire are winless in four and have just three road wins all season. Each of those came against fellow non-playoff teams. With their final game being at home to New England on Decision Day, that’s more likely to be the match they give a little extra effort for versus this one.

Parlay Picks: Philadelphia double chance / FC Cincinnati double chance (-122); 1 unit

Here is a second MLS parlay for our Week 33 MLS picks on Saturday.

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC

  • Pick – Both to score (-170)

Goals could be in the cards between Vancouver and Austin. The Whitecaps are 21-11 to the Over, while Austin is 23-9. It was 3-0 Austin in Texas when the teams met earlier this season and 2-1 Vancouver in each game last season.

Vancouver has won two straight and have their backs against the wall to make the playoffs sitting five points back of seventh-place Minnesota. If results around the league don’t go their way, it may not matter what the Whitecaps do on Saturday, but the opportunity is there against an Austin team that has one win in five.

Still, Austin are the league’s joint-second highest scorers, Vancouver has been outscored 55-38 this season and has allowed a goal in 13/14 recent games. But, the Caps have also scored in each of those 14.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United

  • Pick – Both to score (-185)

The Earthquakes had their opportunity to play spoiler last weekend at home by defeating rivals LA Galaxy. They failed. That may have taken the last gasp of air out of their season. Still, they have one final home game and it comes this weekend.

The Loons still have something to play for, holding down the final playoff spot in the West, but they’re spiraling to the finish line with no wins in five. San Jose is also winless in four and have conceded a goal in 29/32 games this season … 29! That’s wild. At home they at least usually give the PayPark Park faithful something to cheer for, having scored in 15/16 home games. Minnesota won 1-0 at home back in March, but both teams had scored in the five meetings prior.

MLS Parlay Picks: Vancouver vs Austin both to score / San Jose vs Minnesota both to score (+145); 1 unit at Caesars Sportsbook. Be sure to claim your Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet MLS this weekend.

 

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