Napoli vs Inter Milan Odds & Prediction – Serie A Round 31
- Napoli and Inter Milan meet in Serie A on Sunday April 18th
- League leaders Inter can take another step towards the title with victory
- Read below for the latest odds, preview and betting pick
Napoli and Inter match up on Sunday April 18th in a game which will have a massive impact on the top four race in Serie A. With Atalanta facing Juventus this weekend, this is an opportunity for Napoli to put the pressure on, but they face league-leading Inter, who have lost just two league matches this term.
The club from Naples are winless in their last three matches against Inter. They are on a great run at home, however, winning their last six Serie A matches, including a 4-3 thriller against Crotone on April 3rd.
Inter’s form is strong too. Antonio Conte’s team have won five in a row on the road, helping them build an 11-point lead atop the Serie A table.
Napoli vs Inter Odds
| Matchup | Spread at DraftKings | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli vs Inter | NAP +0.5 (-159) | INT -0.5 (+133) | NAP +200 | INT +133 | DRAW +245 | Ov 2.5 (-113) | Un 2.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Apr 17
Conte’s Winning Machine
Just as was the case at Juventus and Chelsea, Conte has built a winning machine. Inter have won 11 consecutive league matches. Much of this success is built on an immensely resilient defense, which ranks top of the league in expected goals conceded since the turn of the year.
Romelu Lukaku has been a joke at Inter Milan 👏
Games: 88
Goals: 61
Assists: 14 pic.twitter.com/UGPv5wff8V— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) April 16, 2021
Andrea Bastoni returns to the back three for this match, and the experienced Marcelo Brozovic will sit in the center of the midfield three. Conte has constructed the perfect springboard for Inter to attack from, which has led to Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku becoming one of the most fearsome attacking duos in world football. Across club and international action, Lukaku has 15 goal involvements in his last 11 matches.
🇧🇪 Romelu Lukaku's quick feet 💫
How would you caption this? 👇@BelRedDevils | @RomeluLukaku9 pic.twitter.com/vOqHq9ghx8— UEFA EURO 2020 (@EURO2020) April 12, 2021
The +132 price on Lukaku to score anytime represents great value. Napoli like to press high (ranking third in attacking third pressures this season), which will give Inter ample opportunity to play through the press and give Lukaku room to attack. Per Who Scored, Inter lead Serie A in counter-attack goals this season with six.
Napoli’s Potent Attack
Only Atalanta have scored more Serie A goals in 2021 than Napoli. They haven’t failed to score in a league match since December. Inter shut Napoli out earlier in the season, but they rode their luck to get that clean sheet, and this Napoli team is a much scarier opponent than the one they faced in December.
6 – Napoli are one of the two only sides to boast six players with at 5+ goals scored in the top-5 European leagues this season, alongside Manchester City.
Lorenzo Insigne
Hirving Lozano
Matteo Politano
Dries Mertens
Piotr Zielinski
Victor OsimhenGang. pic.twitter.com/XNAjLxEf4e
— OptaPaolo (@OptaPaolo) April 11, 2021
Lorenzo Insigne has 15 goals this term, already the second-best mark of his career. He’s the center of so much of what Napoli do in attack, ranking in the top 10 in key passes per match. Their intensity and energy is a reflection of Gennaro Gattuso’s playing days. They are the clear leaders in shots created from defensive actions, and whichever combination of attacking players Gattuso starts, they will make Inter work to keep possession.
😆
💙 #ForzaNapoliSempre pic.twitter.com/bOiaJztD2f
— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) April 15, 2021
Big-money signing Victor Osimhen has hit some form with four goals since the start of March. He could prove to be the wildcard in Saturday’s match, and perhaps the difference maker as Napoli look to break down an Inter defense which hasn’t conceded two goals in a match since February 2nd.
Napoli vs Inter Serie A Statistics
| 5th | Position | 1st |
| 65 | Goals scored | 69 |
| 54.4% | Average possession | 51.6% |
| 53 yellows, 3 reds | Cards | 51 yellows, 1 red |
| 16.9 | Shots per match | 14.5 |
| 54% | Shots inside the area | 61% |
| 56.88 | Understat expected points | 61.75 |
Napoli Continue Home Form
Betting Napoli’s moneyline is a difficult concept. Inter haven’t lost in Serie A since January 6th. As good as Napoli’s form has been, the moneyline would need to be a slightly better price to represent value.
Still, though, the recent performances from Gattuso’s side make it hard to bet against them. Inter are a juggernaut, but Napoli are fiercely motivated by the top four battle, and they showed in the previous meeting that they can create chances against Conte’s defense.
Conte: "I'll never forget all the people who were calling Lukaku overrated and that we overpaid for him." 👀
👊 61 ⚽️ & 14 🅰️ in 88 games
👊 21 ⚽️ & 9 🅰️, most goal contributions in Serie A this season
👊 Leading Inter to first Scudetto in 11 yearsNever doubt RL9 👏 pic.twitter.com/yDX1as6LJV
— GiveMeSport (@GiveMeSport) April 16, 2021
Lukaku to score anytime and Napoli to avoid defeat are the two best bets for this game. The +450 on Napoli to win and both teams to score is tempting, too.
Pick: Napoli to win or draw (-159)
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Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
