Real Madrid vs Villarreal Odds & Prediction – La Liga 7
- Real Madrid hosts Villarreal in the seventh round of La Liga play on Saturday, September 25th at 3:00 pm ET
- Real Madrid are currently atop the Spanish top flight with 16 points, while Villarreal sit in 12th place on seven points
- Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below
La Liga is flying through their fixture list, and this weekend, Matchday 7 features what should be a great match between Real Madrid and Villarreal.
The league leaders, Real Madrid, have pulled it together incredibly well as of late. Since a sloppy 3-3 draw against Levante, Carlo Ancelloti’s side has won five in a row across all competitions against the likes of Real Betis, Inter Milan and Valencia. More impressively, the Galacticos only allowed four goals across those five matches, showing their potential stability at the back.
Conversely, Villarreal have not had the best run of form lately. In fact, the Yellow Submarine just booked their first win of the season this week in a 4-1 triumph over Elche. However, in their seven competitive outings so far, Villarreal have only lost one. That defeat came at the hands of the European champions, Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | RMA -1.5 (+145) | VIL +1.5 (-165) | RMA -200 | VIL +500 | DRAW +370 | Ov 3.5 (+155) | Un 3.5 (-195) |
Odds as of Sept 23rd at DraftKings
The other five results for Villarreal all ended in a stalemate. Two 2-2 finishes against Atletico Madrid and Atalanta prove that Unai Emery and his team have the bravado to perform in big matches.
However, dropping points against the likes of Granada, Espanyol and Mallorca is not a good look for the reigning Europa League victors. Against Real Madrid, Villarreal will have to find a balance between playing defensively and nicking a goal.
Real Madrid’s Center-Back Pairing
Next, let us shift gears back to Real Madrid’s defense. In that 3-3 disaster against Levante, Ancelloti played a defense of David Alaba, Nacho, Eder Militao and Lucas Vasquez.
David Alaba vs Inter Milan in the first half:
Accurate passes: 22
Pass Succession rate: 85%
Long balls: 3
Touches: 31
Duels Won: 2
Clearances: 1
Times dispossessed: 0
Recoveries: 2
Interceptions: 2
Tackle success rate: 50%World Class performance pic.twitter.com/5M6Bhn3i67
— follow @somalitao (@threepeated) September 15, 2021
However, the center-back partnership from those four was actually Nacho and Militao. This formation left Alaba on the right-hand side, in a position he used to flourish in. But, in recent years, especially at Bayern Munich, Alaba transitioned to more of a left center-back. In my opinion, this versatility is what makes the 29-year-old such a positive signing for Real Madrid after losing Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane this summer.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal La Liga Statistics
| 3.5 | Goals per game | 1.2 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 0.6 |
| 58.3% | Possession % | 59.3% |
| 17.2 | Shots per game | 10.6 |
Since that draw, Real Madrid have played Alaba and Militao in the middle of the defense. I spoke on their defensive record earlier, but the stats show, these two are forming a decent partnership. With this newfound control and organization in the middle, Villarreal will find it hard to break down a frugal defense.
+3‼️All smiles 😁 @David_Alaba pic.twitter.com/iOIyb3H97X
— Eduardo Camavinga (@Camavinga) September 19, 2021
With Dani Carvajal and Marcelo out injured, expect Nacho and Miguel Gutierrez to start on the flank for Real Madrid.
Can Villarreal Stop Karim Benzema
Furthermore, Villarreal and Emery also need to plan for stopping Karim Benzema. Their center-back rotation of Pau Torres, Aissa Mandi and Raul Albiol has not been particularly bad to start the season. Regardless, their performance against prolific attackers does not plead well against Real Madrid.
Against Atletico Madrid specifically, Mandi was picked out and made a fool of with an individual error leading to a goal plus the unforgivable own-goal. They simply cannot make these mistakes against Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr. If they do, this match will be over before halftime.
In fact, that Real Madrid duo alone accounts for 22 goal contributions in just six matches. That is a ridiculous statistic and one that Unai Emery will be sweating over.
😉 Still true today. https://t.co/YREQFa7fjQ
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) September 23, 2021
As a side note, Villarreal will also be without their main man up top, Gerard Moreno. While the Spaniard has not had the best start to his La Liga campaign, his absence will still be felt. In turn, we can expect Paco Alacer to start in his place with Yeremi Pino and Arnaut Danjuma on either side.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Best Bet
Overall, the best bet for this match is the Real Madrid spread at -1.5 with odds of +145. It is obvious Villarreal like to keep things close, but, Real Madrid just looks out of this world lately. Ancelloti has seemed to already work some kinks in the defense out, and I personally think the talent differential up top is too large for Villarreal to cover.
Especially with Moreno missing, it makes Villarreal puts their backs against the wall away from home.
Pick: Real Madrid -1.5 (+145)
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
