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Serie A Week 6 Odds & Picks: Bologna vs Cagliari, Udinese vs AC Milan and Napoli vs Sassuolo

Sassuolo's Francesco Caputo
Francesco Caputo has scored in each of his past four Serie A matches and is second overall in league scoring with five goals. Photo by @iF2is (Twitter)
  • Serie A Week 6 includes nine matches this weekend, with one more potentially in doubt
  • Bologna has conceded a goal in 38-straight straight Serie A matches
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Week 6 here

If you like goals look no further than Serie A. Italy’s league is currently the highest-scoring league in all of Europe and for the second-straight week saw 41 total goals scored in the last round. Matchday 4 had 41 goals scored, saw both teams score in 8/10 matches as well as OVER 2.5 goals cashing at the same clip.

It was a similar showing last week with 41 goals scored again, OVER 2.5 totals going 8-2 and both teams scoring in 9/10 matches.

The total goals may take a drop this weekend as currently, only nine matches are on the board with Torino vs Lazio potentially being postponed due to a rash of positive COVID tests in the Lazio camp. In Lazio’s Champions League match on Wednesday in Belgium, they were forced to travel with only 13 first-team players.

Let’s look at Matchday 6 odds and provide some best bets below for this weekend.

Serie A Week 6 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Crotone vs Atalanta +550 +400 -250
Inter Milan vs Parma -400 +500 +900
Bologna vs Cagliari -110 +290 +250
Udinese vs AC Milan +350 +280 -134
Spezia vs Juventus +750 +400 -300
Torino vs Lazio — — —
Napoli vs Sassuolo -188 +350 +450
Roma vs Fiorentina -120 +300 +275
Sampdoria vs Genoa -118 +260 +300
Verona vs Benevento -118 +260 +300

All odds taken Oct 29 at Bet365

Pick 1: Bologna vs Cagliari

Bologna, sitting right above the relegation places in 17th, will host Cagliari, currently 11th at 3:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon.

Meetings between these sides last year saw plenty of goals with Cagliari winning 3-2 at home before the teams split the points in a 1-1 draw in Bologna. During the 2018/19 season, both teams were 2-0 winners at home.

These teams are both 3-2 to OVER 2.5 goals totals but most of those UNDER results came earlier in the season.

Bologna comes into this one off three-straight losses, but they have scored four goals in their past two matches, a 4-2 loss to Sassuolo and 2-1 loss to Lazio last weekend. Their goal against Lazio came late-on, but they had an earlier goal called back by VAR and had plenty of opportunities in the match with 16 attempts and six on target.

On Tuesday, they played in the Coppa Italia and were 2-0 winners at home to Reggina.

In Cagliari’s past three matches they scored twice versus Atalanta (L 5-2), three against Torino (W 3-2) and four times last weekend at home to Crotone in a 4-2 win. On Wednesday they played in the Coppa Italia at home to Cremonese and won 1-0.

Anytime you’re betting a Bologna match you have to look towards goals. For one, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in an astonishing 38-straight Serie A matches. Cagliari scoring has to feel like the free square on the bingo card. But Bologna is plenty capable of scoring themselves, owning the eighth-highest xG in the league, going up against Cagliari who ranks tied with the second-worst xGA overall.

Both teams scoring offers short odds of -188, but both scoring and OVER 2.5 goals is a more respectable price at -125. If you see at least two of those goals coming from Cagliari, betting OVER 1.5 goals for Cagliari can net a decent return of +150 itself.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

Pick 2: Udinese vs AC Milan

Table-toppers AC Milan will travel to face 18th-place Udinese Sunday at 7:30 am EST.

Udinese may have ended last season on a high note,  but they began the 2020/21 campaign with 1-0, 2-0 and 1-0 losses. On Matchday 4 they picked up their first win, a 3-2 home result over fellow strugglers Parma, but returned to the loss column on Matchday 5 losing 3-2 on the road to Fiorentina.

On Wednesday they hosted Vicenza in the Coppa Italia and were 3-1 winners.

The story is of course much different for AC Milan who currently sits top of the table with 13 points at 4-1-0. Not only are they undefeated on the season, but they haven’t lost a match in any competition in 23 games. If you counted friendlies, that number would be even bigger.

The only concern here could be some fatigue and squad rotation for the Rossoneri. They did not play last weekend but instead played in the lone Monday match at home to Roma which ended 3-3.

They were also involved in the Europa League this week on Thursday playing at home to Sparta Prague where they were 3-0 winners, which sent them to the top of Group H.

Three matches over the course of seven days is no simple task. Ante Rebic is still out, though could potentially return for this one and Zlatan Ibrahimovic is 39-years-old. Still, they should have enough to get past Udinese whom they last defeated 3-2 at home in January. Their other match with the I Bianconeri last year though was a 1-0 loss on the road.

The thing with betting a streak is you can only lose once. Milan’s current run is incredible and at 13-4-0 since their last defeat in Serie A, they need to be included in this week’s best bets at -134 odds.

Pick: AC Milan – Win (-134)

Pick 3: Napoli vs Sassuolo

Depending on how you look at it, two of the last five undefeated teams will meet on Sunday at 1:00 pm EST. Sassuolo is 3-2-0, while Napoli is 4-0-1, however, their one loss was a defaulted one because health authorities forbid them from traveling to play Juventus.

The fixtures are coming fast and furious for Napoli having played in the Europa League last Thursday (1-0 loss AZ Alkmaar), winning on Sunday in the league (2-1 Benevento) and playing in the Europa League again this Thursday (1-0 win to Real Sociedad).

Gennaro Guttuso will likely have to do without captain Lorenzo Insigne on Sunday who limped off early on Thursday with a hamstring injury.

Sassuolo have picked up right where they left off last season with plenty of goals being scored at both ends of the pitch in their games. With 16 goals scored and nine conceded in five games, only Atalanta has a higher average of goals scored per game in their combined matches than the Neroverdi.

Having not played over the weekend, Sassuolo was last on the pitch on October 22 where they surprisingly fell behind 3-1 at home to Torino. However, two goals in the 84′ and 85′ minutes drew Roberto De Zerbi’s team level at 3-3. With the scoreline, just 1-0 Torino heading into the final 20 minutes, a five-goal outburst from both sides over a 14-minute period is proof Sassuolo matches are always a moment away from being blown wide-open.

Sassuolo hasn’t had much success against Napoli, having not won since August 23, 2015, 2-1 at home. That is actually their only ever win over the Gli Azzurri in 15 all-time meetings. Last season Napoli were 2-0 winners in Naples and 2-1 winners in Reggio nell’Emilia.

Counting league meetings and the Coppa Italia, Napoli have won three of the past five meetings by 2-0 scorelines but given the performances of the teams this season I can see both teams contributing to the scoresheet on Saturday.

You simply can’t trust Sassuolo to keep a clean sheet, especially on the road, as it’s been ten matches since they’ve done so. But their offense is firing on all cylinders and will be well-rested to test this Napoli side.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-150)

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