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West Brom vs Birmingham Odds & Prediction – EFL Championship Round 12

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Oct 14, 2021 · 12:10 PM PDT

West Brom vs Birmingham
West Bromwich Albion's Karlan Grant during the English Premier League soccer match between West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace at the Hawthorns, West Bromwich, England, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020. (AP Photo/Rui Vieira)
  • West Brom hosts Birmingham in Matchday 12 of the EFL Championship on Friday, October 15th at 3:00 pm ET
  • The Baggies are currently in second place, three points behind Bournemouth, while Birmingham sit ten points further back in sixteenth place
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

The international break is over, which means we can shift our focus back to club football and the match between West Brom vs Birmingham on Friday afternoon. The tie is the kickoff to Matchday 12 in the EFL Championship and has all the makings of an exciting contest.

Furthermore, the match is being played at The Hawthorns, and is a massive test for West Brom as they look to keep the pace with Bournemouth. Conversely, it is a bit of a gut check for Birmingham. The Blues currently sit in 16th place and have only won once in their last eight matches, across all competitions.

West Brom vs Birmingham Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
West Brom vs Birmingham WBA -1.5 (+170) | BIR +1.5 (-230) WBA -175 | BIR +500 | DRAW +320 Ov 2.5 (-115) | Un 2.5 (-105)

Odds as of Oct 13th at DraftKings

However, aside from form, this match will still be overly difficult for Birmingham to see a result in. In fact, they have only scored ten goals in 11 games this season. This fact conveys that they are one of the five lowest-scoring attacks in the Championship.

On Friday against West Brom, they are going against the second-best defense in terms of goals conceded. Overall, that combination does not match up well for Birmingham. Moreover, it has been three games since they even found themselves on the scoresheet, making this task even taller.

West Brom Looking to Shake Off Mediocre Form

Alternatively, despite having a strong start to the year, West Brom have been inconsistent lately. They have only won one from their last six, including a loss to Stoke and three consecutive draws against Millwall, Derby and Preston. The latter two teams are in 24th and 18th place respectively, which proves Birmingham does have a fighting chance.

Regardless, they still find themselves towards the top of the table. This is rather unsurprising due to West Brom’s reputation as a “yo-yo club”, especially in the new millennium. In that time period alone, West Brom have been promoted and relegated from the Premier League five times. While last year was a horrific campaign that even big Sam Allardyce could not fix, this year does have potential for the Baggies.

West Brom vs Birmingham EFL Championship Statistics

West Brom
1.81 Goals per game 0.91
0.81 Goals conceded per game 1.36
50.9% Possession % 43.3%
15.9 Shots per game 12.9

West Brom’s strong, early start can partially be contributed to their experienced defense. With Sam Johnstone in net, and Semi Ajayi, Conor Townsend and Kyle Bartley playing in front of him, they are a tough team to crack.

On the contrary, Karlan Grant and Callum Robinson have also had strong starts on the attacking side of the ball for West Brom. The duo has already combined for 12 goal contributions this year and will be the pair that Birmingham should worry about marking.

Can Birmingham Find the Net?

Birmingham should be slightly concerned on how they planned to defend this West Brom attack. However, they should be even more concerned by their lack of goals lately. Lukas Jutkiewicz and Scott Hogan are the two normal strikers up top for the Blues, while former Watford star Troy Deeney is the number nine they like to bring off the bench.

Unfortunately, none of these players have really hit the ground running this year. In turn, even when their defensive unit puts in a good shift, it is painfully difficult for Birmingham to win matches.

Finally, this is a match Birmingham has not won since 2005, back when both sides were still in the Premier League. Since, they have played ten matches with six going in favor of West Brom, and four ending in stalemate.

In those same matches, West Brom outscored their opponents 20-9, resulting in 2.9 total goals on average. Birmingham was able to keep a majority of those games close, only losing by multiple goals on three separate occasions.

West Brom vs Birmingham Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the over on 2.5 total goals with odds of (-115). This bet has good value and historically has worked well in their last meetings, hitting 60% of the time. Again, West Brom have shown they are better than the team drawing games before the international break. Despite Birmingham’s inability to score, I think West Brom should be able to put a few away, pushing the over through.

Pick: Over 2.5 total goals (-115)

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