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2019 ATP Paris Masters Final Odds & Pick: Djokovic vs Shapovalov

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 2:39 PM PDT

ATP Paris Masters
Novak Djokovic faces Canada's Denis Shapovalov in Sunday's Paris Masters final. Photo by Tatiana (Flickr).
  • Novak Djokovic continues his mission to claim a sixth ATP title as he meets Denis Shapovalov in Sunday’s Paris Masters final
  • Shapovalov won his semifinal match by default when Rafael Nadal withdrew due to injury
  • Top-seeded Djokovic (2014, 2015) is the only #1 seed to win the Paris Masters since 2000

As he prepares for Sunday’s Paris Masters final, there’s good news for Denis Shapovalov. Only one player has won this tournament as a #1 seed since 2000.

The bad news for Shapovalov is that the one player who’s done so is the same player he’ll be facing in the final. It’s top-seeded Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic won the 2014 and 2015 Paris Masters as the #1 seed.

Oddsmakers like his chances of doing it again, listing the Serbian as the overwhelming -900 favorite to topple Canada’s Shapovalov in Sunday’s final.

Djokovic vs Shapovalov Paris Masters Final Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Novak Djokovic -900 -4.5 (-115) Over 21.0 (-125)
Denis Shapovalov +550 +4.5 (-105) Under 21.0 (-105)

Odds taken Nov. 2.

Shapovalov will be playing in the first ATP Masters 1000 final of his career.

Nadal Pulls Out

Rafael Nadal’s bad luck in Paris continued this year. He was forced to withdraw from his semifinal match with Shapovalov. Nadal strained an abdominal muscle while warming up for the match.

Injuries also hampered Nadal at the past two Paris Masters. He opened both years as the #1 seed. Last year, an abdominal injury led to his withdrawal before the start of the tournament.

In 2017, Nadal withdrew with a knee injury. That was prior to his quarterfinal match with qualifier Filip Krajenovic.

Can He Be King Of The World . . . Again?

Nadal’s withdrawal, coupled with his Djokovic’s Paris final appearance, situates Djokovic well to finish atop the ATP points standings.

Entering Sunday’s Paris Masters final against Shapovalov, Djokovic trails Nadal by 1,040 points in the standings, with just next week’s ATP Finals to conclude the season. There will be 1,500 points up for grabs in that tournament.

Djokovic is seeking his record-tying sixth season title. He also finished #1 in the ATP standings in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2018.

First Final For Shapovalov

Sunday will be the 50th ATP Masters 1000 final for Djokovic. That gives him a lead of 49 over Shapovalov in this category.

The Canadian will make his first Masters 1000 final appearance at the Paris Masters.

It’s already been a big week for the 20-year-old. He beat France’s Gael Monfils 6-2, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. That moved Shapovalov into his fourth career Masters 1000 semifinal. It also pushed him to the top of the Canadian men’s tennis rankings.

A win Sunday will guarantee Shapovalov of finishing 11th in the season-ending ATP rankings. If he loses to Djokovic, he’ll settle for ending the year as the world’s #15 player.

He entered this tournament ranked #28 in the world.

Djokovic The Master Of Paris

Djokovic owns a tournament-record four Paris Masters titles. With victories in 2014 and 2015, he’ s the only #1 seed to win the Paris Masters since Andre Agassi in 1999.

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Djokovic also won the event in 2009 and 2013. He’s the only player to win the tournament in successive years. As well, Djokovic’s six tournament final appearances are also a Paris Masters record.

He lost last year’s final 7–5, 6–4 to Russia’s Karen Khachanov.

Advantage Djokovic

Djokovic will be seeking his fourth win over Shapovalov in as many matches. They’ve met three previous times, all during the 2019 season. Djokovic has dropped a solitary set while sweeping all three head-to-head clashes. Each match took place in the Round of 32 of the respective tournament.

They first met at the Australian Open. Djokovic won 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-0. He beat Shapovalov 6-1, 6-3 at the Rome Masters. He toppled the Canuck 6-3, 6-3 at the Shanghai Masters.

Djokovic vs Shapovalov

Novak Djokovic
Denis Shapovalov
1 WTA Ranking 28
76 Tournament Wins 1
52-9 2019 Record 33-24
26-6 2019 Hard-Court Record 20-11
9-1 Last 10 Matches 8-2
3-0 Head to Head 0-3

Djokovic is 32-16 all-time in Masters 1000 finals. A victory in Paris would improve Djokovic to 5-1 in 2019 finals. That would tie him with Dominic Thiem (5-1) for the most wins. Only Daniil Medvedev (9) has appeared in more finals.

Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set in Paris. He’s 8-0. Shapovalov is 6-2. He won two of his matches via the semifinal withdrawal of Nadal and the opening-round retirement of Gilles Simon due to a groin injury.

The best play here is the under. In their last two meetings, Djokovic dispatched Shapovalov in an average of 17 games.

Pick: Under 21 (-105).

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