- New York will host the United States Open starting on Monday
- Rather than betting on an individual player, you can wager on where in the draw the winner will come from
- Where can we find value betting the bracket?
The U.S. Open draw is out. A winner coming out of the third quarter is a juicy 9/1. Why? That’s the one quarter that doesn’t have Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer in it. The Big Three have won 53 of the last 63 majors. It seems rather likely one will win here too.
Let’s examine the odds by quarter and see if we can find some value.
Odds Each Quarter of the Draw Wins the 2019 U.S. Open
|Quarter||Odds||Top Seed in Quarter|
|1st Quarter||-140||#1 Djokovic|
|2nd Quarter||+500||#3 Federer|
|3rd Quarter||+900||#4 Thiem|
|4th Quarter||+225||#2 Nadal|
*Odds taken 08/23/19
Obviously, these numbers coincide fairly closely with the top player in each section of the draw. The first quarter features Djokovic, who has won four of the last five majors and is the defending champ in this event. Individually, he is +110 to win the title.
Interestingly, the player with the lowest odds outside of the big three, Daniil Medvedev (12/1) is in this section as well.
Medvedev just upset Djokovic in Cincinnati on his way to a 1000-level title.
Federer is the third choice in the wagering at +550 and therefore it is no shock this section is +500 overall. Fed has not won in NYC since 2007, but has back-to-back Aussie Open titles on hard courts in 2017 and 2018.
His top competition in this quarter is fellow Swiss national Stan Wawrinka (40/1) and Belgian David Goffin (50/1).
If you’re looking for longshots, this is your spot. The best odds in this quarter belong to Stefanos Tsitsipas (25/1) though Dominic Thiem (28/1) is close.
The often disappointing Nick Kyrgios (40/1), Roberto Bautista Agut (66/1), and Gael Monfils (100/1) are a part of a truly uninspiring section
Nadal is the second choice in betting at +300. He won the U.S. Open for a third time two years ago. His primary competition is Alexander Zverev (33/1). Veteran Marin Cilic (40/1) looms as well.
What Quarter to Bet?
Even if you think Djokovic is going to win, why hedge the bet by taking Medvedev too? If Medvedev beats Djokovic, he likely still needs to get through Federer and Nadal to make the first quarter a winner. The value here is on the fourth quarter. Nadal is likely to be in the final, and if Zverev upsets him, he too has a good shot at beating the winner of the third quarter and giving you a chance in the last match.
Odds Each Half of the Draw Wins the 2019 U.S. Open
*Odds taken 08/23/19
The first two quarters give you Djokovic and Federer which would be enough to be a sizeable favorite.
On top of that you get the fourth betting choice in Medvedev, who is playing incredibly well right now. You have to think somebody from this side hoisting the trophy is pretty strong.
There are worse players to back than Rafael Nadal. His support on the bottom isn’t strong. ‘
Tsitsipas, Thiem, and Zverev are good, but it takes a bit of imagination to see them winning now. The bottom line is Nadal is a good bet individually because his path is pretty easy.
What Half to bet
A price of -250 equates to an implied probably of just over 71-percent. There likely is one player on the bottom who can upend those chances, Nadal. Rafa must win five matches just to get to the title tilt. He certainly can, but even if he does he would be an underdog against Djokovic. The upper half is the clear choice.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.