ATP Cup Finals Odds & Previews: Rublev vs Fognini & Medvedev vs Berrettini
- Russia is heavily-favored to win over Italy in the ATP Cup final on Saturday, February 6th
- Andrey Rublev is the -550 favorite to defeat Fabio Fognini; Daniil Medvedev is the -380 chalk to stop Matteo Berrettini
- Read below for the odds and a preview of the finals
It will be Russia facing Italy in the Saturday, February 6th final of the ATP Cup. In Friday’s semi-finals, the Italians eliminated Spain, last year’s finalists. Russia bounced Germany to also reach the final of the 12-country event.
Russia is overwhelmingly favored to capture both scheduled singles matches. Andrey Rublev is the prohibitive -550 choice to defeat Fabio Fognini. Daniil Medvedev is a -380 betting choice in his match against Matteo Berrettini.
ATP Cup Final Odds
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | -550 | -4.5 (-120) | O 21.5 (-115) |
| Fabio Fognini | +400 | +4.5 (-110) | U 21.5 (-140) |
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Daniil Medvedev | -380 | -3.5 (-134) | O 22.5 (-105) |
| Matteo Berrettini | +260 | +3.5 (+102) | U 22.5 (-150) |
Odds taken Feb. 6th at FanDuel
Rublev is facing Fognini is the first match at 6pm EST. Medvedev and Berrettini square off at 7:20pm. Both matches are being held on the hardcourt surface at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia.
Comeback Kids
Each of Medvedev and Rublev got themselves down a set in Friday’s semi-final singles matches against Germany. Then both roared back for impressive victories.
Medvedev entered his semi-final against Alexander Zverev having lost five of eight previous matches in head-to-head competition. It was originally appearing that the form charts would hold. Zverev was a solid 6-3 winner in the first set.
However, ATP Finals champ Medvedev was riding a two-game winning streak against Zverev, and he would run that roll to three. Medvedev took the second set 6-3. In the third and deciding set, he double faulted twice on match point. Medvedev had to fight off five break points to hold on for a 7-5 verdict.
Rublev also dropped the first set of his semi-final 6-3 to Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff. After that, though, it was all Rublev. He recorded 37 winners over the final two sets, rallying to take the match with 6-2 and 6-1 victories.
Italian Stallions
Last year, Italy didn’t get out of the Group stage of the ATP Cup. Friday, they dispatched the Spaniards in impressive fashion to reach the final.
Berrettini made short work of world #13 Roberto Bautista Agut 6-3, 7-5. It was his fourth victory in five matches against Baustista Augut.
Remember the name 👊
🇮🇹 #TeamItaly | #ATPCup pic.twitter.com/CfHIabTNEY
— ATPCup (@ATPCup) February 6, 2021
Fognini ended up battling for a 6-2, 1-6, 6-4 triumph over Pablo Correna Busta to book Italy’s passage to the final. Correna Busta was the winner of their previous seven meetings between the two players. The Spaniard fought off three match points in the third set, but ultimately succumbed.
Fognini Has Rublev’s Number
The hottest player on the ATP circuit is Rublev. In 2020, the 23-year-old ended up finishing the year winning the most titles (five). He was level-top for the most matches won (41).
We’ve got the X Factor! 🇮🇹
Final tomorrow 💪@atpcup @atptour
📸 @raygiubilo pic.twitter.com/fsZoz0DjsT— Fabio Fognini (@fabiofogna) February 6, 2021
He’s not enjoyed much in the way of success against Fognini, however. The 33-year-old Italian owns a 5-1 advantage in head-to-head meetings.
That includes a 3-0 edge on hardcourt surfaces. Fognini has won five of six sets between the two on hardcourts. Rublev’s lone win was on the clay of Umag, Croatia in 2017.
Pick: Fabio Fognini (+400) in three sets (+650).
Medvedev Russian To Victory
In this matchup of two of the world’s top-10 players, there isn’t much history to draw upon. World #4 Medvedev won the only previous match between him and #10 Berrettini.
That was on the hardcourts of Indian Wells in 2018. Medvedev scratched out a 6-7 (6), 7-5- 6-4 victory.
Medvedev finished 2020 posting a 23-10 record. He was a perfect 5-0 against the best players in the world while winning the ATP Finals. He’s only dropped one set in three matches at the ATP Cup.
Never a truer word spoken, @AndreyRublev97 💯#ATPCup | 🇷🇺 #TeamRussia pic.twitter.com/ipRkc4jYyI
— ATPCup (@ATPCup) February 6, 2021
Moving into the top 10 last year, Berrettini became just the fourth Italian to do so since the ranking system was first established in 1973. It took him just one hour and 26 minutes to take care of Bautista Agut in their semi-final match.
Berrettini has gone 3-0 in the ATP Cup. He’s dispatched three of the top 13 men’s singles players on the planet without dropping a set.
However, Medvedev has won his last 10 matches. Eight of those wins were against players curretly ranked among the top 10 in the world.. That includes victories over #1 (Novak Djokovic), #2 (Rafael Nadal) and #3 (Dominic Thiem).
The Russian has also won the last two tournament he’s played.
Pick: Daniil Medvedev (-380) in three sets (+250).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
