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ATP Cup Semifinals Odds & Predictions: Struff vs Rublev & Zverev vs Medvedev

Dave F.

by Dave F. in Tennis

Feb 5, 2021 · 10:26 AM PST

ATP Cup
FILE - In this Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021 file photo, Russia's Andrey Rublev makes a forehand return to Argentina's Guido Pella during their ATP Cup match in Melbourne, Australia. Andrey Rublev – Led the ATP Tour with five titles and was tied for first with 41 match wins in 2020. He now hopes to get past the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time. (AP Photo/Hamish Blair, File)
  • Germany and Russia battle in the ATP Cup Semifinals on Friday
  • Both singles matches feature players off to strong starts in 2021
  • Where can we find the best betting value in the semis?

The Australian Open is now just days away, but first the strongest teams in the ATP Cup must determine a champion. A warm-up event for the first major of the year, the semifinals between Germany and Russia feature arguably the top two teams remaining in the bracket.

Andrey Rublev has dominated his first two matches of the year after a strong finish to 2020. When Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev meet it will be a re-match of the final in November’s Paris Masters.

Let’s break down the two ATP Cup matches, and consider where we can find the top betting value.

Struff vs Rublev ATP Cup Semifinal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Jan-Lennard Struff +3.5 (+130) +320 Over 21.5 (-118)
Andrey Rublev -3.5 (-165) -435 Under 21.5 (-107)

Odds from DraftKings taken Feb. 5

Struff vs Rublev History

This is the second meeting between Jan-Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev at the ATP Tour level. In St. Petersburg in 2018 Struff earned a straight set victory.

Struff also beat Rublev on clay in a French Open qualifying match in 2016. Rublev got by Struff in a futures battle in Texas on a hard court in 2017

The Future Is Now for Rublev

With the world’s best players at an advanced age, there is an opportunity for talented youngsters to emerge. Rublev is 23 years old and had a breakout 2020.

Last year he reached the quarterfinals at two majors, and won five ATP titles including three after the pandemic shutdown.

Rublev has made easy work of Guido Pella and Yoshihito Nishioka thus far in 2021.

Struff Is Who We Thought He Was

At the age of 30, having never reached the Top 25, Struff is a capable journeyman.

This year he won a match, earned a walkover victory, and lost in the quarterfinals in Turkey, and is 2-0 so far in Australia. That said, beating Milos Raonic and Dusan Lajovic in three sets each is not exactly the top tier competition.

Last year Struff went 15-15, with his best result a quarterfinal setback in the Western & Southern Open.

Struff vs Rublev ATP Cup Best Bet

There is little reason to believe this ATP Cup match should be really competitive. We’ll happily lay 3.5 games (-165) with Rublev and will consider the ‘Under’ strongly too.

Zverev vs Medvedev ATP Cup Semifinal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Alexander Zverev +2.5 (+100) +175 Over 23.5 (+108)
Daniil Medvedev -2.5 (-125) -220 Under 23.5 (-130)

Zverev vs Medvedev History

Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev meet for the ninth time. Zverev holds a 5-3 edge. Zverev has won three of four all time meetings outdoors on hard courts. That said, Medvedev has won two straight battles, both indoors on hard courts, and three of four overall.

Their last matchup came at the end of 2020 in the ATP Finals in London. Medvedev won 6-3, 6-4.

Zverev Showed Up When It Counted Last Year

The year 2020 was far from normal for everyone. Zverev had a strong season going 27-9, but was particularly good in the big events.

He reached the semis in Australia last year and got to the fifth set of the US Open Final falling to Dominic Thiem in a tiebreak.

Down Under this year Zverev won a third set tiebreak with Denis Shapovalov and lost 7-5 in the clinching set to Novak Djokovic.

Medvedev Keeps Coming Close

Last year Medvedev went 23-10 and was red hot at the end of the season. He went 5-0 facing the best of the best in the ATP Finals, after beating Zverev in the Final at the Paris Masters.

Medvedev reached the semis at the US Open falling to Thiem. His first portion of 2020 was unremarkable.

Zverev vs Medvedev ATP Cup Best Bet

There is little reason to believe this won’t be a very competitive ATP Cup match. The ‘Over’ 23.5 games (+108) seems like a good wager, and alternative lines that push the ‘Over’ even higher but increase your odds should be considered.

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