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ATP Cup Semifinals Odds & Previews: Fognini vs Carreno Busta & Berrettini vs Bautista Agut

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Feb 5, 2021 · 11:14 AM PST

Italy's Matteo Berrettini makes a forehand return to France's Gael Monfils during their ATP Cup match in Melbourne, Australia, Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Hamish Blair)
  • Fabio Fognini and Pablo Carreno Busta will square off in the ATP Cup semifinals on Friday
  • Italy is one of the surprise teams in the semis as they are the No. 8 seed in the ATP Cup
  • Carreno Busta has a perfect 7-0 lifetime record against Fognini in head-to-head matchups

The 2021 ATP Cup has reached the semifinal stage as Germany and Russia will go at it on one side of the draw while Italy and Spain will clash in the other half. One of the key matchups today will be Fabio Fognini taking on Pablo Carreno Busta and the Spaniard is a big favorite. Is he the right play for this tournament showdown, though?

Fabio Fognini vs Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cup Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Fabio Fognini +1.5 (-118) +230 Over 2.5 (+160)
Pablo Carreno Busta -1.5 (-107) -295 Under 2.5 (-210)

Odds as of Feb 5th at DraftKings

Carreno Busta Has Performed Well So Far

Carreno Busta is the No. 3 player on the Spanish squad as he’s behind Rafael Nadal and Roberto Bautista-Agut. However, Carreno Busta hasn’t been dragging the team down by any stretch as he’s showed well in each of his three contests so far.

Carreno Busta helped take down the Australian team in early February when he did his part, beating John Millman in straight sets and then also contributing in the doubles victory (also in straight sets). A few days later, he beat Michail Pervolarakis in straight sets when Spain played Greece. In the doubles showdown, Spain retired early but that was due to injury.

As for Fognini, he has been teaming with Matteo Berrettini and to be fair, it’s been the latter that’s mostly carrying the team. Fognini lost his battle with Dennis Novak in straight sets but then beat Benoit Paire in the showdown against France. In their lone doubles matchup, Berrettini and Fognini beat the Austrians.

Carreno Busta Has Dominated Fognini

One of the most important stats heading into this ATP Cup showdown is going to be the fact that Carreno Busta is 7-0 lifetime against Fognini. They haven’t faced each other a lot (they haven’t met since 2019) but Carreno Bust has clearly had his number.

If there is a silver lining for Fognini, it’s that these two have had some close encounters. The last matchup was a three-setter that required a tiebreaker to determine a winner. In the 2019 Australian Open, Fognini again took one set off of Carreno Busta. Prior to that was another three-setter in Monaco in 2017.

Overall, it’s tough to take Fognini as a dog in this spot because he hasn’t been the better player in this tournament and the head-to-head history isn’t kind to him. Take Carreno Busta as Spain should earn the win in this one in straight sets.

Pick: Carreno Busta 2-0 (-107)

Matteo Berrettini vs Roberto Bautista Agut ATP Cup Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Matteo Berrettini -1.5 (+160) -162 Over 2.5 (+130)
Roberto Bautista Agut +1.5 (-205) +130 Under 2.5 (-167)

Odds as of Feb 5th at DraftKings

Berrettini Favored to Take Care of Bautista Agut

Berrettini has been very crisp throughout this ATP Cup event as he’s won both of his matchups in straight sets. The most impressive win was the one over Dominic Thiem when he cleaned him out 6-2, 6-4 back in early February. Berrettini barely broke a sweat. The same could be said for when he beat Gael Monfils a day later, topping him 6-4, 6-2.

As for Bautista Agut, he hasn’t performed nearly on the same level. He’s only played in two contests so far. His first was a win over Alex de Minaur but he needed three sets to pull that out. He lost the first set before coming back. As for his second contest, he lost in straight sets to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

These two have only squared off four times in their short history and Berrettini has won three of the four contests. Each of his wins have come in straight sets too. Look for something similar in this contest on Friday.

Pick: Berrettini 2-0 (+150)

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